Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
433
FOPZ15 KNHC 170846
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 1(31) X(31)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31)
15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 53(68) X(68) X(68)
ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29)
ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)
P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 39(46) 37(83) X(83) X(83)
P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 43(55) X(55) X(55)
P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) X(28)
P ANGEL 34 1 6( 7) 24(31) 34(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70)
P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21)
P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36)
HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
10N 95W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 95W 34 1 19(20) 18(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45)
15N 95W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SALINA CRUZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P SAN JOSE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH