494
FOPZ15 KNHC 171445
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)   X(26)   X(26)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  30(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

15N 100W       34  X   4( 4)   7(11)  22(33)   4(37)   X(37)   X(37)
15N 100W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
15N 100W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ACAPULCO       34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)  36(44)  26(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  29(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   X(20)   X(20)

P MALDONADO    34  X   5( 5)  27(32)  47(79)   8(87)   X(87)   X(87)
P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  41(45)  12(57)   X(57)   X(57)
P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  10(33)   X(33)   X(33)

P ANGEL        34  2  18(20)  49(69)   7(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
P ANGEL        50  X   1( 1)  18(19)   5(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
P ANGEL        64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HUATULCO       34  X   6( 6)  32(38)   6(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
HUATULCO       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
HUATULCO       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

10N 95W        34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

15N 95W        34  4  31(35)  11(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
15N 95W        50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SALINA CRUZ    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

TAPACHULA      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

P SAN JOSE     34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER BERG