Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
642 WTPZ45 KNHC 060843 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025 Satellite imagery indicates that Octave has begun to weaken over the past several hours, with its central dense overcast diminishing in size and its cloud tops warming. This trend, combined with a 0602 UTC Metop-C ASCAT pass showing peak surface winds near 50 kt, supports setting the initial intensity at 60 kt, making Octave a tropical storm. The initial motion is eastward at around 6 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through much of the day today. A gradual bend toward the east-southeast is forecast tonight through Wednesday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward off the U.S. West Coast and a much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward well to the east. By late Wednesday, Octave is expected to turn toward the northeast as it begins to interact with and eventually become absorbed by Priscilla. There remains a decent amount of cross- and along-track spread among the guidance during the midweek period, largely due to uncertainties associated with this binary interaction. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus aid. Global models suggest Octave has likely peaked in intensity, which aligns with recent trends. Drier mid-level air entraining into the circulation and gradually increasing vertical wind shear will support continued weakening during the next couple of days. Thereafter, stronger shear combined with interaction with Priscilla should induce additional weakening. Octave is forecast to open up into a trough and be absorbed by Priscilla by the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast remains close to the previous NHC advisory and near the middle portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 16.3N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.0N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 15.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 15.8N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 16.7N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)