472
WTPZ45 KNHC 171445
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

Erick`s structure continues to show signs of organization, with a
partial 0819 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass possibly showing the initial
development of an inner core.  Subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt, and the latest objective ADT estimate
is just over 40 kt.  Based on a blend of these data, the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt.

Erick appears to have slowed down a bit and is moving
west-northwestward (300 degrees) at 8 kt.  The storm is reaching
the western extent of a mid-level ridge to the north, with a
mid-/upper-level trough located over northern Mexico.  These
features should cause Erick to turn northwestward later today, with
that trajectory continuing for the next 3 days.  Speed-wise, the
cyclone is likely to move at its slowest (around 6 kt) this evening
but then gradually accelerate during the next several days.
Although the models are in good agreement on the general track of
Erick, the storm`s parallel trajectory to the coast of Mexico will
play an important role in exactly which areas receive the most
significant wind and surge impacts.  The updated NHC track forecast
has been nudged westward, and generally lies between the HCCA and
TVCE consensus aids.

The environment appears ideal for rapid strengthening.  Vertical
shear is expected to be very low, with the cyclone moving over
waters of around 29 degrees Celsius and within a moist
mid-level environment of around 80 percent relative humidity.
As a result of these conditions, Rapid intensification (RI) indices
are rather high, particular for the 36- and 48-hour periods.  The
NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI occurring while Erick
approaches the coast of southern Mexico, with a 48-hour intensity
just below major hurricane strength.  Despite this increase in the
forecast intensity, there are still a few models (including the
normally skillful HCCA aid) that show Erick reaching major
hurricane strength, and additional upward adjustments in the
forecast could be required later today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast
of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is now in
effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca.  A hurricane watch is
in effect for portions of the Guerrero coast.

2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 12.3N  94.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 12.8N  94.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 13.6N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 14.7N  97.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 16.0N  98.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg/Mora