376
WTPZ45 KNHC 170848
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

Satellite imagery shows that the system is gradually becoming
better organized.  TAFB determined a Dvorak data T-number of T2.5
which is confirmed from a spiral banding measurement of roughly a
0.5 wrap on enhanced IR images.  Therefore, the intensity estimate
is set at 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone is being named.

Based on the latest center fixes, the motion remains 300/10 kt, as
in the previous advisory.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the
storm is forecast to weaken a bit by the global models, and this
should result in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a
slower forward speed.  The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement and similar to the previous model runs.  It should
be noted that the complexity of the track moving parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico means that small changes in the system`s
heading will cause substantial differences in where and when the
most significant wind impacts will occur.  The official track
forecast is close to the various consensus solutions including the
FSU Superensemble.  Users are reminded that the average 60-hour NHC
track error is a little more than 60 n mi.

Erick is situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment which
appears to be very conducive for strengthening, with low shear,
water temperatures near 29 deg C and mid-tropospheric humidities of
75-80 percent.  The official intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one, but some of the numerical guidance shows
even more strengthening than that.  Moreover, the various Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices show a significant chance for RI
before landfall.  Thus, the NHC forecast for the peak strength of
Erick could be conservative.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erick is expected to strengthen significantly before
reaching the coast of southern Mexico, where a Hurricane Watch is
in effect.

2. Erick will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through this week.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain.

3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the
center crosses the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 11.9N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 12.5N  94.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 13.2N  95.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 14.0N  96.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 15.3N  97.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  19/1800Z 16.8N  99.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 72H  20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch