354
WTPZ45 KNHC 170242
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the
system has developed a well-defined circulation, and deep convection
has been consolidating near and north of the center. Therefore, the
system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A slower
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days as the ridge currently steering the system weakens.
Although the models are in fair agreement, the complexity of the
track moving parallel to the coast of southern Mexico means that
small changes in the system`s heading will cause notable differences
on where and when the most significant wind impacts will occur.
The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope and is generally similar to the previous one. Users are
reminded that the average 60-hour NHC track error is a little more
than 60 n mi.

The environmental conditions are nearly ideal for intensification
with the vertical wind shear expected to be less than 10 kt,
mid-level humidities near or above 80 percent, and SSTs over 29
C for the next 2 or 3 days. Nearly all of the models show the
system strengthening significantly, and given the conducive
conditions, rapid intensification is a possibility. The NHC
intensity forecast lies near the consensus models and shows the
cyclone becoming a tropical storm by early Tuesday and a hurricane
before it reaches Mexico.

Based on this forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
portions of southern Mexico. Watches will likely be extended
westward on Tuesday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early
Tuesday and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it
approaches southern Mexico. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
portions of southern Mexico.

2. The depression will likely produce heavy rainfall across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain.

3. Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center
crosses the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 11.2N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 11.8N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 12.5N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 13.3N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 14.2N  96.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 15.5N  97.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 16.6N  98.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi