276
WTPZ25 KNHC 050831
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152025
0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.9N 123.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 122.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.9N 120.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.3N 118.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 16.3N 115.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)