Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
904 FXUS02 KWBC 032020 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 420 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 10 2026 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest guidance solutions are better clustered for the weekend, bolstering forecast confidence. A composite model/ensemble/machine learning guidance blend seems to provide a solid forecast basis. Guidance shows a similar larger scale pattern evolution with more than initially expected flow progression into next week given amplified/blocky flow, albeit with ample small-mid scale embedded system differences to decipher. A guidance blend focus more toward the ensemble means seems to best address issues consistent with individual system predictabilities. This plan is less useful with varied coastal low developments over the western Atlantic, with impacts mainly from maritime storm and back-side coastal rip-tide concerns now that guidance shifted the main upper trough position offshore. WPC medium-range surface progs were manual adjusted to solidify system organization consistent with support. This overall forecast strategy offers good WPC product continuity that remains broadly in line over the nation with the National Blend of Models. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Amplified upper troughs with weather focusing surface lows/frontal systems will steadily feed inland into an unsettled Northwest/West this weekend/next week, with ejecting energy lifting northeastward across the Rockies and northern Plains into Canada. SPC offers some severe weather threat over the northern high Plains Saturday and a Day 5/Sunday WPC Excessive Rainfall (ERO) Marginal Threat area is shown with system emergence over the northern Plains. Lead southern stream trough energy will meanwhile lift slowly over the Southern Plains this weekend and shear over the Midwest early- mid next week to focus moisture/instability and convection with local heavy rains/runoff concerns. The most organized heavy rain/repeat activity/runoff threat seems to be over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley this weekend where WPC ERO Marginal Risk areas remain in place. The threat for portions of these areas will likely need to be upgraded as details become clearer closer to the event. A hot summertime upper ridge amplifies/settles downstream over the east-central U.S. with ample rounding upper energy digging to the lee to carve an amplified East Coast to Western Atlantic upper trough with coastal low potential. Kebede/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$