682
FXUS02 KWBC 111959
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 14 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 18 2025


...Overview...

A southern stream upper low will be traversing the Southwest and
northern Mexico late this week into the weekend, bringing
widespread precipitation to those areas. Rain and possible
thunderstorms are forecast to move into the south-central U.S. by
around Sunday and possibly the east-central U.S. into Monday as
this feature lifts through the region. Upper ridging ahead of this
system will lead to much warmer than average temperatures across
the central and then eastern U.S. into the weekend. Meanwhile in
the northern stream, an upper trough will push a surface
low/frontal system across the Great Lakes and Northeast over the
weekend, leading to rain and snow. Yet another trough moving into
the West should bring precipitation chances to the Pacific
Northwest and farther east into the Intermountain West early next
week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models and ensembles continue to show pretty good agreement on the
large scale pattern, but some differences in the details that
could be impactful to sensible weather. An upper low looks to break
off of a larger scale trough off the West Coast by Friday, sliding
across the Southwest this weekend, and then lifting into the
central U.S. as it weakens. There are some differences in the
placement/timing of this system, especially next Monday-Tuesday as
it reaches the Central U.S. and prompts development of
precipitation across the central/south-central states. The northern
stream system shows acceptable agreement as it swings through the
Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend/Monday. For the most part, a
general model blend of the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC sufficed for Days
3-5/Friday-Sunday.

Bigger differences arise next Monday as the next trough approaches
the West Coast regarding timing and stream separation. The ECMWF
is less enthusiastic about stream separating versus the GFS and CMC
both of which show another cutoff low off the California coast.
The ECMWF and CMC are faster with northern stream energy through
the Northwest, with the GFS advertising a more amplified pattern
overall for the CONUS by next Tuesday. For Days 6 and 7, opted to
use greater weighting of the ensemble means in the blend, which
also maintains relatively good continuity with the previous WPC
forecast as well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The tail end of an atmospheric river may impact southern
California Friday, while the cutoff developing upper low provides
dynamical support for ample precipitation, mostly rain, across the
Southwest. Precipitable water values will likely be over the 95th
percentile for this time of year, and some modest instability
exists ahead of and underneath the deep upper low. Precipitation
should initially be mostly rain even into parts of the Mogollon Rim
until the upper low passes over. Marginal Risks of excessive
rainfall are in place for parts of southern California into Arizona
on Day 4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday for isolated flooding concerns
with this system, especially for the more sensitive burn scar
areas. Rain and thunderstorms are likely to spread east into the
Southern and Central Plains into the Lower and Middle Mississippi
Valley by Sunday. There is more model spread by Monday, but rain
generally should continue shifting east into the Ohio Valley
stretching to the central Gulf Coast.

Some lake effect precipitation could continue across the Northeast
on Friday, but broader precipitation chances are likely to come
into the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS over the weekend as a
low pressure system moves through. Some snow is likely in the
Interior Northeast, especially in higher elevations, with possible
early morning rain/snow mix for areas even closer to the coast.

Periodic precipitation is likely across the Pacific Northwest and
Intermountain West into late week, with higher elevation snow. By
Sunday, precipitation chances should ramp up into northern
California and farther inland as well, as broad upper troughing
approaches. Troughing looks to move through the West early next
week and could spread precipitation across the Intermountain West
once again, though the details remain uncertain. Precipitation
could be moderate or heavy at times.

Temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average for mid-
November across the central U.S. on Friday. The Northern Plains
should see the most anomalous temperatures, as highs soar into the
60s and 70s, around 20-25 degrees above normal. 80s will be
widespread across Texas with 70s in the rest of the Plains and into
the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Temperatures
should cool in the north-central U.S. over the weekend, but remain
warm farther south and spreading eastward (though with lesser
anomalies). By the workweek the upper low/trough will generally
cool temperatures, though the Gulf Coast states could stay a few
degrees above average. Meanwhile the rounds of troughing in
California to the Southwest will lead to below average highs there
most days.


Santorelli/Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw




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