983
FXUS02 KWBC 301952
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 02 2026 - 12Z Thu Aug 06 2026


***Heat wave likely to continue from California to the
 Intermountain West into next week***

...Pattern Overview...

The upper ridge dominating the weather pattern across the western
half of the country will weaken slightly this weekend into Monday
as a strong cold front is forecast to bring much cooler air
through the Northwest early next week and into the northern Plains
through midweek. Meanwhile, a slowly dissipating front merging with
a wave lifting from the Midwest to the Northeast will trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorms which will gradually edge
toward the East Coast through midweek. Excessive heat across the
southwestern quadrant of the country should begin to spread
northeast toward the Four Corners, central Rockies and into the
central High Plains heading toward midweek as the upper ridge re-
intensifies.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest model guidance suite features good overall synoptic
scale agreement across the Continental U.S. through the medium-
range forecast period. A general compromise of the deterministic
and ensemble mean model should serve well as a starting point for
fronts and pressures.

There is a notable model consensus to slow the eastward progress
of the wave moving through the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic
Sunday to Monday, resulting in a delay in the back edge of the
precipitation from the Midwest to the Northeast. This slowing trend
is consistent with the models favoring a more amplified upper low
over the Midwest. Also used the AI and ensemble means to yield a
better definition of the pre-frontal QPF amounts across the
northern Plains to the upper Midwest, and for the monsoonal
precipitation over New Mexico and Arizona. In addition, latest
consensus from the model guidance supports a better definition of
the front dipping into the northern Plains, resulting in lower
daytime temperatures in the post-frontal environment than what was
depicted in the NBM.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase more broadly
across the East Coast states in general for Sunday into Monday as
deeper moisture is advected northward ahead of the upper trough
across the Mid-South. The rainfall could be potentially more
concentrated across lower Great Lakes, upstate New York into
western PA where interaction with a cold front could enhance
coverage of showers and storms. Rainfall likely lingers across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast U.S. through
Tuesday.

There will likely be widespread record heat across much of the
interior Western U.S. going into Sunday. The hottest readings for
the weekend will be across the lower elevations of the Desert
Southwest where widespread 110s are forecast. Montana likely has
cooler temperatures by Sunday, followed by the Dakotas on Monday as
the cold front moves through. Record high overnight lows are also
likely, including locations farther to the east across Texas with
lows struggling to get below 80 degrees. It will remain
uncomfortably hot going into the first half of next week from
California to Utah and southward to Arizona where the upper ridge
persists the longest. Hot and humid conditions will continue across
the Gulf Coast region with heat indices likely exceeding 100
degrees most days.

Elsewhere across the Continental U.S., most of the monsoonal
rainfall should be confined to eastern Arizona and into central New
Mexico, with scattered convection reaching into portions of Utah
and Colorado. A corridor of showers and storms is likely ahead of
the front that crosses the Dakotas and into Minnesota early in the
week, and this may also be accompanied with some severe weather.
The Pacific Northwest will likely have some slightly below average
temperatures this weekend before a gradual warm-up ensues next
week, and generally close to average for the eastern U.S.

Kong/Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw






$$