844
FXUS02 KWBC 300601
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026


...A progressive storm system will bring precipitation across the
central U.S. through mid-week and into eastern U.S. by mid to late
week...


...Overview...

An active pattern continues for central and eastern U.S. as the
upper trough progresses eastward from western U.S. The evolution of
this trough, including a potential development of a closed mid-
level low, and eastward moving frontal boundary will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of central U.S.
for the first portion of next week and gradually into eastern U.S.
by mid to late week. Meanwhile, shortwave energy and a frontal
boundary sagging across Florida will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms that may lead to heavy rainfall on Monday. By late
week, another Pacific shortwave energy will approach the West
Coast, bringing chances for showers and high-elevation snow.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest model guidance continues to grow in agreement of the
progression of the upper trough from western U.S. into central U.S.
by mid week and eventually to eastern U.S. by late week.
Additionally, models capture potential cyclogenesis over central
U.S., and a expansive precipitation shield across central U.S. into
mid-week. In contrast, the models show notable differences towards
mid to late week for the Pacific disturbance moving into the West
Coast. CMC continues to show a faster progression of the trough,
while other models seem to have a slower progression. These
differences will impact placement of precipitation and frontal
placement. The ensemble means help smooth some of the timing and
amplitude differences within the deterministic models. Therefore,
the forecast reflected greater weight on a multi-model blend with
the CMC/ECMWF/GFS and AI-based model solutions for the first
portion of the period. Heavier weighting towards the ensemble means
were used for the latter portion of the period.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The upper trough will continue to push eastward into the central
U.S. early next week, encouraging the development of a surface low
and associated frontal boundary over the Plains. Strengthening
southerly flow and Gulf moisture pooling along the boundary will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
Rockies/Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible where deeper moisture and stronger ascent
overlap. WPC continues the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for
portions of the Mississippi Valley and Plains for Monday.

Furthermore, snow is likely across higher elevations of the
Rockies, with snow levels dependent on the depth of the incoming
cold air. Additionally, stronger pressure gradients around the
developing low may also produce gusty winds, particularly across
the Plains through Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorms will persist
along the front as it continues to track farther east into portions
of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Southeast by Tuesday, and
eventually the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast by mid-week. The frontal
boundary will continue to pull Gulf moisture into the lower
Mississippi Valley/Southeast bringing chances for heavy rainfall,
which is reflected within the Marginal Risk in WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday. Meanwhile, cooler and drier air will
begin to spread into the central U.S. in the wake of the front.

Across the Southeast, the combination of shortwave disturbances,
persistent moisture transport from the Gulf, and eastward-moving
frontal boundary should support additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Periods of locally heavy rainfall are possible,
particularly across portions of eastern Florida Coast for Monday,
which is reflected with a Marginal Risk for WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook.

By mid to late week, another Pacific disturbance will approach the
West Coast. This will bring an increased chance for increased
precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and portions of
northern California, with potential high-elevation snow.


Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw











$$