871
FXUS02 KWBC 021916
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jun 09 2026


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance solutions seem reasonably well clustered Friday/Saturday
and a GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend seems well supported by
multi-model ensembles. Guidance becomes more varied with potential
return toward amplifying/blocky flow over the lower 48/vicinity
into next week. The ECMWF in this vein offers more eastward
translating flow over the nation, but was marginally discounted
given overall trends toward amplification. A composite blend of
the GFS/Canadian models and ensemble means was prioritized for now.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A wavy and slow moving front sliding southward from the northern
tier of the lower 48 will bring showers/thunderstorms to portions
of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, and eventually Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic. Convection Friday could produce isolated
instances of flash flooding over portions of the Middle to Upper
Mississippi Valley, which is supported by a WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) Marginal Risk area that shifts over the Midwest for
Saturday. Showers/thunderstorms shift into the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes Saturday before finally spreading into the Northeast/Mid-
Atlantic Sunday, where there`s potential for heavy downpours.
Associated upper trough/low amplification and blocky nature could
protract post-frontal cooling and lead heavy downpour threats early
next week down through the Mid-Atlantic toward the Southeast,
albeit with much uncertainty with shift/focus.

Mid-upper level shortwaves gliding slowly northward out of Mexico
into the south-central U.S. will be responsible for multiple rounds
of heavy convection spreading from the Southern Plains late
week/weekend and into the Lower Mississippi Valley this
weekend/early next week. WPC ERO Day 4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday
Marginal Risk areas are in place with favorable flow, instability
and protracted inflow/moisture to fuel repeat activity to monitor.

Amplified troughing will generate rainfall across the Pacific
Northwest on Friday/Saturday, then spreading into the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday and Monday. Uncertain subsequent
system energies and renewed rain chances in amplifying flow may
prove slow to reach the Pacific Northwest/West Coast next week.

Kebede/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw




















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