Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
750 FXUS02 KWBC 070635 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 235 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 14 2026 ...Major heatwaves impact portions of the Southeast and North- Central U.S. this weekend... ...Overview... Broad upper-level ridge expands over the Central U.S. this week, generating major heat risk concerns for portions of the North- Central CONUS. Major to extreme heat risk continues for the Southeast beneath an amplifying trough to the north and a retrograding ridge this weekend. Conditions begin to improve over the Southeast by early next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Models are in reasonably good agreement regarding the synoptic pattern evolution across the CONUS beginning on Friday. The deterministic Euro and UKMET deviate from consensus on small scale details regarding shortwave energy propagating through the Mississippi Valley and Midwest late this week. A general model blend consisting of the available deterministic and Ai guidance was used in the blend through day 4. Ensemble means were gradually increased in the blend through the end of the period. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Upper-level ridging builds over the Central U.S. late this week. This will promote above average temperatures and warm/moist southerly flow into the region. Temperatures are likely to be 10-20 degrees above average across the Northern Plains this weekend, where major heat risk will be a concern. Elsewhere, ridging in the Southeast will promote additional major to isolated extreme heat risk late this week and into the weekend. Heat indices between 105-115 could harm those without adequate cooling or hydration. A deepening trough along the East Coast should bring some relief to the area by early next week. A synoptic front pushing south through the Midwest and East Coast will focus showers and thunderstorms in those areas this weekend. Some storms in the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians may generate heavy rainfall leading to isolated instances of flash flooding on Friday and Saturday. A pattern shift featuring a Central U.S. ridge and weak East Pacific troughing may generate monsoonal storms across the Southwest beginning late this week and gradually increase in coverage through the weekend. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$