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FXUS02 KWBC 260702
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026


...Central to Eastern U.S. Hazardous Cold Threat this week...
...Potential East Coastal Storm Threat next weekend...
...Emerging Atmospheric River for Northwest Washington/Olympics...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model and ensemble guidance remains generally agreeable on the
overall pattern through the weekend. Mean upper-troughing looks to
persist over the central to eastern U.S. as embedded upper-level
energies both from the north as well as to the west from the
southern stream help to reinforce the upper-low/trough. Guidance
does suggest some eastward progression next weekend which could
provide some slow moderation of the persistent, well below average
and very cold temperatures for the region. Meanwhile to the west,
upper-ridging looks to quickly reamplify following the embedded
passage of southern stream energy early in the period. System
approach in persistent southwesterly flow upstream of the ridge
towards the West Coast remains complex and uncertain but there
remains some signal for an Atmospheric River with increased
moisture into the Pacific Northwest. Potential Gulf low genesis
late week brings uncertain precipitation chances to the Gulf
Coast. However, there is a growing guidance signal for downstream
weekend coastal storm development up/off the East Coast to monitor.

The WPC medium-range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite blend of best clustered upper pattern guidance of the 18
UTC GFS/GEFS mean and 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean. This
solution maintains good WPC continuity aloft and overall with less
certain surface system depictions as well as being in line with the
01 UTC National Blend of Models. However, this solution does not
well represent newer 00 UTC multi-model guidance trends that now
strongly build on recent ECMWF/AIFS led guidance chances in support
of a potentially much more impactful weekend coastal storm threat
in closer proximity to the East Coast in a favorable flow pattern.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Arctic surface high pressure settling and additional surges in the
wake of the ongoing historic winter storm will maintain
dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. this
week. The airmass may be more prolonged in areas with widespread
snow/ice coverage and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean
troughing aloft will bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper
system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley/Northeast, but especially in the lee of the Lakes.
Upstream, an amplified upper ridge will linger near the West Coast
before energy works onshore later week with rainfall also set to
gradually work to the Pacific Northwest and vicinity/inland as the
mean upper ridge position gradually shifts eastward. In this
pattern there is lingering potential for downstream wintry
precipitation into parts of Texas late week as upper trough
translation leads into western Gulf frontal wave genesis. There is
also more an eye on possibly impactful next weekend coastal storm
development up the still cold Eastern Seaboard to monitor for
inland wintry precipitation and winds/coastal wave/maritime aspects.

The highly anomalous frigid temperatures will have some
staying power across a broad swath of the central and eastern U.S.
through the week, with areas from the northern Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast and Ohio Valley likely remaining below freezing for highs
each day, with the potential for some daily record lows to be set.
This will be a serious problem for any areas that have extended
power outages from the ongoing major winter storm.

Meanwhile, there remains a guidance signal for development of a
moderate to heavy rainfall pattern with a protracted moist
southerly fetch focus later this week into northwest Washington
and especially favored southern facing Olympic Range terrain. While
the region has been dry, multi-inch daily totals may lead to some
localized runoff issues. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO)
Marginal Threat areas have been introduced from Day3/Thursday
through Day 5/Saturday after local WFO collaboration. Snow levels
will rise with the influx of warmer, moist air, with heavier snows
possible for the higher elevations of the Cascades.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw




















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