664
FXUS02 KWBC 110714
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 18 2026


...Heat building across the West this weekend into early next
week...

...Heavy rainfall threat across the southern Plains, Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Southeast...


...Overview...

A rather amplified pattern for mid-June will be in place next week,
as a broad upper trough consolidates over the central and eastern
U.S. early next week and slowly moves east and lifts Wednesday-
Thursday. A frontal boundary ahead of the trough is forecast to
move slowly southeast across the south-central to southeastern
U.S., focusing moisture for rain and thunderstorms, and heavy rain
could cause flooding concerns. Upstream, upper ridging will build
across the West Coast, leading to hot temperatures that will be
well above average in the Pacific Northwest early next week. The
ridge should push east across the Great Basin and Four Corners
states as the week progresses.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Recent model guidance has converged well on the pattern described
above. Shortwave energy across the northern Rockies/High Plains
Sunday will join the trough and serve to dig it southward across
the central U.S. for the workweek, pushing a reasonably strong
front ahead of it. Model differences with this shortwave and
additional energies dropping southward from Canada into the western
side of the trough are now pretty minor. The trough should
continue to rotate eastward through the week and lift northward by
next Thursday. Meanwhile, there is good consensus for an upper
ridge to move into the West Coast states early next week and drift
east with time behind the trough. The ridge could get suppressed on
the northern side into the Northwest as a series of shortwaves
flattens out the pattern. The details of these shortwaves like
depth and timing are somewhat questionable by midweek and beyond,
but certainly within typical spread for the late medium range
period.

Because of the broad overall agreement, the WPC forecast used a
multi-model blend of recent guidance for the early part of the
forecast period. Included some GEFS and EC ensemble means in the
blend by the late period to reduce any individual model
differences.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A potent cold front is forecast to slowly move southeast across
the southern tier Sunday and beyond, providing a focus for
thunderstorms. Ample moisture and instability coming into the
generally west to east oriented front will mean a flash flooding
threat is possible with potential for training storms, focused in
the Ark-La-Tex toward central Mississippi on Sunday (shifted south
due to model trends) and slightly southeastward by Monday as the
front moves. Slight Risks are present in both the Day 4/Sunday and
5/Monday EROs--see the new Day 4-5 ERO discussion for more. Areas
of heavy rain are likely to continue in the Gulf Coast states on
Tuesday and Wednesday as the front continues to move slowly.

Elsewhere, rain and thunderstorms are also possible across the
Appalachians to Eastern Seaboard Sunday-Monday along and ahead of
the northern part of the front. Meanwhile the back end of the front
could also produce light to moderate rain over the Rockies to Four
Corners states Sunday-Monday. A secondary front and shortwave
energies could bring some scattered showers/storms to the north-
central Plains to Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday and beyond.

Hot and humid conditions will be present across the southern
Plains to Southeast into Sunday, as a subtropical upper ridge will
be in place south of the upper trough. The Eastern Seaboard can
expect generally above normal temperatures Sunday as well, but
moderated from the heat in the short range period. Cooler than
average temperatures are likely underneath the upper trough and
behind the cold front in the north-central U.S., spreading into the
South and East as the week progresses while moderating. Meanwhile,
the West will be rather warm under the upper ridge. The Desert
Southwest can expect temperatures well into the 100s and perhaps
over 110 into much of next week, with warmer than average
temperatures extending into the central Great Basin. Above average
temperatures should also be present in the Pacific Northwest early
next week. Daily record highs could be broken as temperatures reach
the 90s to perhaps 100 in the Willamette Valley and 80s farther
north toward Seattle. Widespread Moderate to scattered Major
HeatRisk is forecast for much of the West. Temperatures should
gradually moderate in the Pacific Northwest, but above normal
conditions will push east across the Intermountain West and reach
the Plains by midweek.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw


$$