292
FXUS02 KWBC 310551
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026


...A slowly progressive storm system will bring heavy
rains/thunderstorms across the Central U.S. through midweek and
into the eastern U.S. later next week...


...Overview...

An active weather pattern continues across central and eastern U.S.
for next week, as the upper trough and associated frontal system
supports widespread showers and thunderstorms along the boundary.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the the
Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Ohio/Tennessee Valley as the
system moves eastward. Gusty winds may develop across the Plains as
the frontal boundary pushes eastward on Tuesday. Meanwhile,
another Pacific disturbance approaches the West Coast toward late
next week, and will bring renewed precipitation chances to the
Pacific Northwest.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Latest model guidance generally supports the eastward progression
of a broad upper-level trough across central U.S. into eastern U.S.
through next week. Model agreement increases in regard to the
development of surface cyclogenesis across the Plains and the
eastward progression of an associated frontal boundary. Some
differences remain regarding the timing and amplitude of the upper
trough and the eventual progression of the frontal boundary through
eastern U.S. Theses differences will impact the timing of the
heaviest precipitation, as well as the extent of instability
available for thunderstorm development. Additionally, models show
agreement of another Pacific energy moving into the West, but
uncertainty remains on the some of the shortwave features and
timing of the inland progression. For the early portion of the
week, a multi-model blend incorporating the GFS/ECMWF/CMC solutions
appears appropriate, with increasing reliance on ensemble means
towards the latter portion of the period.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The primary weather feature during the beginning of next week will
be the eastward progression of the amplified upper trough and
associated surface low/frontal system. Stronger southerly flow
ahead of the system will transport Gulf moisture northward,
supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms along the
frontal boundary over the Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Great Lakes and Southeast. Periods of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, particularly where stronger forcing
overlaps with deep moisture and low-level convergence. Some
thunderstorms could produce locally excessive rainfall, especially
where repeated storms occurs. WPC continues the Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall for portions of mid- to lower Mississippi Valley
and Southeast for Tuesday.

Behind the cold front, strengthening pressure gradients may
produce gusty winds across portions of the High Plains on Tuesday.
As the system progresses into eastern U.S., showers and
thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Southeast, Mid-
Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast on Wednesday. As the Gulf
moisture continues to pool along the boundary, chances for heavy
rainfall increases. WPC has placed a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall for portions of the Southeast into Tennessee/Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic for Wednesday. The storms will advance northeast
by late next week, leaving behind cooler and drier conditions in
the wake of the frontal system.

Across the west, additional Pacific shortwave energy will approach
the West Coast during the mid to late week, which will support
increased precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and eventually
portions of the the Intermountain West and California. The highest
precipitation probabilities will initially favor coastal and
mountain areas.


Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw















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