900
FXUS02 KWBC 030807
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 10 2026


...Overview...

Mean troughing over the Western and Central U.S. will promote
active weather across portions of the Southern Plains, Mississippi
Valley and Northeast this weekend. An upper-level ridge will
strengthen over the Eastern half of the country, leading to
average to above average temperatures for the region. A pair of
deep East Pacific troughs will bring more rain showers and gusty
winds to the Northwest beginning this weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models generally agree on the timing of the first in a series of
West Coast troughs, though have notable spread on the intensity of
it as well as the timing and intensity of the second mid-level low
that follows it early next week. The GFS and Euro AiFS cluster well
throughout the medium range period and thus make up the foundation
of the days 3-7 blends. UKMET and and Canadian are incorporated in
the blend on days 3 and 4, before ensemble means are introduced on
day 5 to mitigate some of the spread regarding the second West
Coast trough.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

An elongated surface front draped across the northern tier of the
country will generate showers and thunderstorms across the Great
Lakes and Northeast this weekend. Skies clear out a bit as high
pressure builds in the wake of the cold front. An amplifying upper
ridge over the Eastern U.S. will supply warm southerly flow into
the region. Overnight lows struggling to drop below the 70s will
likely contribute to some moderate to major (levels 2-3 out of 4)
heat risk over portions of the Mid- Atlantic Coast this Friday and
Saturday night.

Waves of deep upper level troughs will bring multiple rounds of
rain showers to the Northwest this weekend and again on Tuesday.
Small mid- level vortices emanating from Mexico will propagate
north through the Southern Plains, late this weekend into early
next week. These weak impulses will interact with some Gulf
moisture and spread scattered showers and thunderstorms across
parts of the Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley,
where isolated flash flooding is possible this weekend.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
























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