530
FXUS02 KWBC 040606
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026


...Overview...

An active weather pattern will persist for Pacific Northwest, as
the northeastern Pacific trough extends into much of western and
north-central states bringing period of rain and possible high-
elevation snow. A potential atmospheric river event may begin
approaching the West Coast towards early next week. Meanwhile,
troughing is expected to persist across portions of eastern U.S.,
as additional shortwave troughs reinforces cyclonic flow,
prolonging showers across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. The
southern- stream disturbance across the Southwest will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of Texas and
western Gulf coast.



...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The models show fairly good agreement with the deep, slow-moving
trough over the northeastern Pacific, extending toward the West
Coast, with anomalous riding downstream over much of the western
and central U.S.. The models also seem to have decent agreement on
the trough over eastern U.S. Although the broad pattern is
relatively consistent, differences remain int he amplitude and
phase of individual shortwaves, especially over the Southwest. The
GFS/GEFS show an attempt to close off a mid-level circulation over
the Southwest, which will bring uncertainty with the eastward
progression of precipitation. Additionally, a slower solution
could prolong conditions across portions of Texas and adjacent
areas, while a more progressive scenario would favor a quicker
eastward shift toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Along the
western Atlantic, uncertainty remains on the development of the
secondary coastal low that may bring additional showers along the
East Coast. Therefore, the forecast incorporated a multi-model
blend through the weekend, with less weight on the GFS. The
ensemble means were phased into the forecast for early next week
into mid-week.




...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Persistent cyclonic flow and frontal boundaries over the
northeastern Pacific will maintain an active weather pattern across
the Pacific Northwest. Expect rain across Oregon and Washington
coastal areas and lower elevations, with possible high-elevation
snow through the weekend. By early next week, a deeper eastern
Pacific trough will increase onshore moisture transport and the
potential of a more organized atmospheric river event. This may
support showers expanding into California, while stronger winds
become possible along portions of the West Coast. Farther south,
the southern-stream trough will continue to progress eastward and
interact with Gulf moisture, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of Texas and western Gulf Coast
through the weekend.

Across eastern U.S., renewed shortwave energy dropping
southeastward from the northern Plains may reinforced troughing,
which will support additional periods of showers across the Great
Lakes into the Northeast through the weekend. Additionally, a
potential development of a coastal low may bring additional showers
and gusty winds along the Mid-Atantic and Northeast coast,
although the timing and track remains uncertain. Father north,
cold-air advection behind the frontal passages may support periods
of lake- effect downwind of the Great Lakes into early next week.



Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

































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