Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
498 FXUS64 KEPZ 151144 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 544 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the Borderland through the week. -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow winds, and areas blowing dust. - With the general summertime thunderstorm weather pattern, daily high temperatures top out very near seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 740 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A busy upper air pattern across the southern tier of the U.S. with several features all playing some part in the flow pattern over our region. The nose of a SoCal high is ridged over the Four Corners to our north. A Bermuda high over the Gulf has receded to the east. To our SW is a low pressure center over Sonora. Over our region is the confused junction of those three synoptic features, where in, our flow pattern is light and variable, and inconsistent. This is part of the reason we are seeing slow moving showers and thunderstorms. Our current moisture content across the region is very near the seasonal normals for this point in the monsoon. We are seeing surface dewpoints in the 45-55F range, and PWATS in the 0.80" mountains to 1.20" lowlands range. Moisture content is not low or high, it is just average. We been seeing scattered to numerous showers and storms the past few days, with pop-up severe storms due to hail and winds, and plenty of heavy rain makers due to efficiency and slow motions. For Tuesday the general theme will be the same, moisture in place, heating and upslope motions destabilizing the airmass, with buildups and storms to follow. The difference appears to be a westward shift in the focus of most of the development. The SACs will still get their storms, but lowland in the RGV and east should see a noticeable decrease in storm activity. This is because the low to our south moves west across the Baja into the Pacific, and the nose of the upper high to our N sags SE. This looks to concentrate our moisture to the east of the RGV. Still isolated storms east, but more scattered to possibly numerous storms west. Wednesday looks to follow with a similar convective pattern, favoring western areas over eastern areas, but some developing low pressure surface troughing over the RGV may allow for some moisture to spill back east a bit. Thus potential for better storms over the central portions of the forecast area. It appears Thursday will have a pretty uniform moisture channel focused over the entire area as an inverted wave pass to our south and helps to reorient the moisture plume directly over our CWA. This could mean equal rain/storm chances across the CWA, with high pops mountains. As we move to the weekend, it appears high pressure nudges toward us from TX. Models show the deeper moisture plume shifting back over our western areas, with somewhat drier air back east of the RGV. Honestly given the weak pattern, there is little confidence in the detail of the forecast, beyond stating we have moisture, we will have daytime instability, and there will be isolated to scattered rain and storms each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 High clouds linger this morning, followed by thunderstorms developing during the afternoon over the higher terrain. All terminals have a high chance of staying dry through the period as most of the convection remains to the west. KDMN and KTCS are most favored to see a nearby TS later today (~20% chance) coming off the Gila Region. An outflow boundary is modeled to progress west to east through the evening, resulting in gusts to near 25kts from the W. Otherwise, winds will be AOB 10kts from W-SW with light and variable flow this morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 523 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Storm activity will be favored in western areas through Wednesday with heavy rainfall potential as somewhat drier air moves in from the east. Storm chances increase area- wide later in the week with a low threat of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars, as the moisture plume sets up over the region. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Winds will be light to modestly breezy otherwise with near normal temperatures through the week. Min RHs will be 15-30% below 7500ft, 25-50% above 7500ft through the week. Vent rates will be fair to very good through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 77 98 76 / 10 10 0 20 Sierra Blanca 89 67 91 69 / 10 10 20 40 Las Cruces 95 70 95 70 / 10 20 0 30 Alamogordo 94 70 95 71 / 20 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 70 52 74 52 / 30 10 30 10 Truth or Consequences 94 71 95 70 / 30 20 30 40 Silver City 87 62 86 61 / 70 50 70 60 Deming 97 72 95 70 / 20 40 20 40 Lordsburg 94 68 91 67 / 60 60 60 60 West El Paso Metro 95 75 96 76 / 10 10 10 30 Dell City 94 71 97 72 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 97 75 97 76 / 10 20 20 40 Loma Linda 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 0 20 Fabens 96 74 97 74 / 10 10 0 20 Santa Teresa 95 73 95 73 / 10 20 10 30 White Sands HQ 95 74 97 74 / 10 10 10 20 Jornada Range 95 69 96 70 / 10 20 10 30 Hatch 97 70 98 70 / 20 20 20 40 Columbus 96 73 95 73 / 10 40 20 50 Orogrande 93 71 94 71 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 80 58 84 58 / 30 10 30 10 Mescalero 81 58 85 58 / 30 10 30 10 Timberon 78 55 81 56 / 20 10 20 10 Winston 87 58 87 58 / 60 40 60 50 Hillsboro 93 66 94 65 / 40 40 40 50 Spaceport 95 67 95 67 / 20 20 20 30 Lake Roberts 87 57 88 56 / 70 50 80 60 Hurley 90 64 88 63 / 60 50 60 50 Cliff 95 64 93 64 / 70 60 80 60 Mule Creek 91 62 89 61 / 70 40 80 70 Faywood 90 65 90 65 / 40 40 50 50 Animas 93 68 90 67 / 60 70 70 70 Hachita 93 68 90 67 / 40 60 50 60 Antelope Wells 91 66 87 66 / 60 80 70 70 Cloverdale 86 62 81 62 / 80 70 80 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson