810
FXUS64 KEPZ 261128
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
528 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...


.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

 - Heat Advisory in effect for Rio Grande Valley below El Paso
   through Hudspeth County until 9 PM MDT.

 - Near record high temperatures through the end of the week, with
   lowland temperatures reaching the triple digit mark most
   afternoons.

 - Isolated rain showers and storms in the mountains Wednesday,
   better chance for rain for the whole area on Thursday and
   Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Upper level high pressure will continue to control our weather
through the end of the week, but then we will see a pattern
change. On Wednesday the upper level ridge will begin to drift to
the west. We will still have a hot day on Wednesday, but not quite
as hot as Tuesday. The lower Rio Grande Valley below El Paso,
looks like they will be hot enough to need a heat advisory, but
much of the lowlands will fall just short of heat advisory
criteria (105F). Without the upper level ridge sitting directly
over southern New Mexico, the mountains will be able to fire off a
few showers and thunderstorms. For Thursday the upper level ridge
will basically be in the same position over the New
Mexico/Arizona border, but some moisture will push into the region
from the east. This moisture will help fuel scattered mountain
and lowland thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. By
Friday the upper level ridge will be back on the move again and it
will be centered over central New Mexico. Rain chances will again
be limited to area mountains and locations west of Rio Grande.
High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will drop a few more
degrees so that by Friday afternoon most lowlands locations will
see high temperatures a little below 100F.

For Saturday and Sunday the upper level ridge will be well to our
east which will set up a decent monsoon flow pattern.
Unfortunately almost all of the moisture will be pushed into
Arizona. Rainfall both days will be limited to area mountains and
locations along the New Mexico and Arizona border. High
temperatures both days will run 4 to 8 degrees above average.

For the start of the week, an approaching West Coast trough
(haven`t talked about one of those in several months), will push
some of that monsoon moisture back to the east, so we will see a
chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday
for much of the area. High temperatures in the lowlands both days
will run at or a little below the triple digit mark.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW120-250. Light and
variable winds are expected to become south to southeasterly
(130-180) by 18z with speeds up to 10 knots and a few gusts to 20
knots. A wind shift is expected from the east or north, depending
on site, between 3z and 6z, which may bring a period of gustiness.
Additionally, ISO SHRA and TSRA are possible this evening,
especially at TCS, but confidence of occurrence is low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

We will see another day of hot and dry conditions although highs
will be a couple degrees cooler than Tuesday for most locations.
Min RH values will be in the lower teens for the lowlands. Area
mountains, especially the Sacramento-Capitan Mountains, will see a
chance for showers and thunderstorms with a very low chance these
storms move into the lowlands. Winds will be light with good
venting. Moisture will increase for Thursday, giving the entire
area a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 101  75  99 /   0  10  40   0
Sierra Blanca            68  97  66  94 /  10  20  10  10
Las Cruces               71 100  70  98 /  10  10  60   0
Alamogordo               70  99  68  97 /  20  20  40  30
Cloudcroft               53  75  51  73 /  20  40  50  70
Truth or Consequences    73  99  71  97 /  10  20  40   0
Silver City              68  94  66  91 /   0  30  40  30
Deming                   72 102  71 100 /   0   0  40   0
Lordsburg                73 101  72  99 /   0   0  20   0
West El Paso Metro       78 101  76  99 /  10  10  40   0
Dell City                70  99  69  97 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             75 105  74 102 /  10  20  10  10
Loma Linda               69  93  68  91 /   0  30  30  10
Fabens                   74 102  73 100 /   0  10  20  10
Santa Teresa             74 100  73  97 /  10  10  50   0
White Sands HQ           76 100  73  98 /  10  10  50   0
Jornada Range            72 100  70  97 /  10  10  60   0
Hatch                    73 104  72 101 /  10  10  60   0
Columbus                 75 102  75 100 /   0   0  30   0
Orogrande                70  98  68  95 /  10  10  40  10
Mayhill                  57  86  55  85 /  20  70  40  60
Mescalero                56  86  55  85 /  20  40  50  60
Timberon                 55  84  54  82 /  10  50  40  60
Winston                  63  90  61  89 /  10  50  40  30
Hillsboro                71  99  68  96 /  10  30  50  10
Spaceport                71  99  69  97 /  10  10  50   0
Lake Roberts             61  92  59  90 /   0  50  40  60
Hurley                   68  97  66  94 /   0  20  40  10
Cliff                    70 102  68  99 /   0  20  30  20
Mule Creek               68  98  67  96 /   0   0  20  20
Faywood                  70  96  68  93 /   0  20  50  10
Animas                   71 102  71 101 /   0   0  20   0
Hachita                  71 100  70  98 /   0   0  30   0
Antelope Wells           70 101  69  98 /   0   0  20   0
Cloverdale               68  96  67  93 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth
     Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown