Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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768 FXUS64 KEPZ 161939 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 139 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 138 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Expect quiet weather tonight and Friday across the area. - Low chance of a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Expect drier air to be transported into the area behind an upper level disturbance. As a result, expect quiet weather tonight and Friday across the area with temperatures close to normal for this time of year. After the upper-level trough departs the region by Saturday morning, shortwave ridging will set up across northern Mexico and much of the Desert Southwest for the rest of the weekend. This will bring dry conditions with near-normal temperatures to the region through early next week. By the middle of next week an upper-low will move in from southern California and become an open wave. This will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher elevations. PWAT values and overall moisture look to remain low (0.30 inches and 30%, respectively). For now, rainfall probabilities look low for midweek. Temperatures look to be near or just below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. Expect west winds with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon at the terminals. The winds will become light, less than 10 knots by early this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Drying trend will take place through the weekend as dry southwest to westerly flow aloft develops over the Desert Southwest. As a result afternoon Min RH values will continue trend down with Min RH values dropping to around 20 percent by the weekend. West to southwest winds will prevail through the weekend, becoming breezy but staying below critical thresholds. Temperatures each afternoon will top out around seasonal values for mid-October with smoke ventilation values fair to good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 59 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 79 52 77 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 51 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 56 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 77 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 77 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 54 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 84 57 82 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 72 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 54 76 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 76 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 75 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 76 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 43 67 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 64 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 68 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 46 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 46 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 68 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 73 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 68 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 46 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 74 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 68 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99