Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
914 FXUS64 KEPZ 041117 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 417 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 400 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 - Dry today and Thursday with temperatures near normal. - Breezy this afternoon, otherwise winds on the light side. - Slight chance of showers Friday night and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 954 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 Temperatures for the rest of the evening will be in the mid to upper 40s around El Paso, and closer to the low 40s outside the metropolitan area. Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 70s on Wednesday, at or around seasonal normals for early November. Winds will increase from the west to about 10-15 mph as an upper-level low passes through the Four Corners. This upper-level low will bring a Pacific cold front that will cool temperatures down overnight and into Thursday. Conditions for the rest of the week will be dry and quiet, though an upper level trough moving through the Desert Southwest around Friday/Saturday could bring some limited moisture and rain chances. The ECMWF has a cutoff low splitting off from the trough Saturday afternoon, while the GFS does not. It remains to be seen how much precipitation we`ll see. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 VFR conditions through the period with SCT-BKN250. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning becoming west 8-12G20 knots after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 Fire concerns remain quite low as we are not expecting significant winds or very low RHs. We will see some afternoon westerly breezes today but winds into the weekend should be light otherwise. A Pacific storm system moves in Friday night and Saturday for a slight chance of showers. A backdoor cold front pushes in Saturday night for some breezy east/northeast winds. Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Friday, increasing to 35-45% Saturday/Sunday. Mountains 25-40% through Friday, increasing to 35- 50% Saturday/Sunday. Vent rates fair-good today and Saturday/Sunday; poor-fair Thursday/Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 49 70 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 68 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 30 53 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 64 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 37 64 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 41 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 39 66 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 51 69 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 48 70 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 46 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 74 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 68 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 48 67 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 39 66 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 41 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 45 68 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 40 65 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 35 64 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 65 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 34 63 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 63 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 65 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 30 68 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 65 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 33 68 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 29 66 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 40 64 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 68 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 66 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 69 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 44 67 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner