Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
101 FXUS64 KEPZ 291140 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 532 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - Better chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist in the lowlands Friday night. - Thunderstorm chances will remain elevated Saturday and Sunday, with localized heavy rainfall and flash flood potential, especially in the high terrain. - Precip chances will diminish Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Seeing some isolated to widely scattered showers trying to percolate again in SW New Mexico, and can`t rule out another little tray making it in close to ELP as outflow boundaries move in from the north and west in the next few hours. Best chance for measurable rain will be in an arc from the Bootheel up into the Gila and across Sierra County. Heading into tomorrow (Fri), the subtropical ridge will be centered over SE New Mexico, with deeper mid-level moisture getting pulled up in SW New Mexico on southerly flow. Mid-level temperatures look to cool slightly, to around -5 to -6C. Expect convection will be mostly based in the higher terrain in the early afternoon, then spread to the desert mountain ranges late in the afternoon. A shortwave trough will graze northern New Mexico in the evening hours, lowland thunderstorm chances will ramp up, and look to persist well into the overnight hours. This is supported by most HREF members and the experimental REFS. Localized heavy downpours will be possible. By Saturday, PWAT values will range from around 1.25 to 1.50 inches across the area, and the risk of localized flash flooding will increase, especially across the Sacramento Mountains and Gila Region starting in the afternoon. Once again lowland precip chances look to hang on into the night across the lowlands Saturday night, aided by upper level diffluence west of the subtropical ridge. For Sunday, some drier air looks to sneak in across the northern 2/3rds of New Mexico, with low level moisture pooling across southern portions as low level easterly flow pulls in a higher dewpoint air mass. Precip chances look to be highest across southern portions, but a lot will depend on how overnight convection evolves Saturday night. Monday into Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will be redeveloping over the Great Basin, while cooler and drier air flows down the Great Plains on the backside of trough over the Great Lakes. Expect a downturn in convection during this time frame, with some improvement possible by late in the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Radar this morning is showing areas of SHRA with ISO TS across Southern NM and Far West Texas. The expectation is precipitation to gradually diminish by 15z, but impacts to TAF sites cannot be ruled out especially at DMN. Later this afternoon SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected to redevelop with impacts likely (greater than 60%) for each TAF sites mainly after 21z, but confidence on more precise timing is a bit low so went with PROB30s for this TAF update. Outside of storms expect SCT-BKN100-250. Winds will generally be light throughout the period with direction generally from the W or SW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Little to no fire weather concerns expected throughout the period. Monsoonal moisture will be increasing today bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms, beginning in the mountains before moving into the lowlands. Highs will still be a few degrees above normal though with min RH values in the low to mid 20s. Winds will be light with fair to good vent rate categories. Moisture continues to arrive for Saturday, increasing further for Sunday with increased shower and thunderstorm chances. Flash flooding risk will peak on Sunday. Drier air begins to push in on Monday with an attendant decrease in shower and thunderstorm chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 74 95 72 / 30 50 20 60 Sierra Blanca 93 65 90 64 / 40 40 40 50 Las Cruces 95 68 91 66 / 40 60 20 60 Alamogordo 95 69 91 66 / 50 60 30 50 Cloudcroft 72 50 68 48 / 70 50 80 50 Truth or Consequences 93 68 89 66 / 40 30 30 30 Silver City 90 62 86 61 / 40 30 60 40 Deming 98 69 94 67 / 30 50 20 50 Lordsburg 94 69 92 69 / 20 30 20 40 West El Paso Metro 96 72 92 71 / 30 50 20 60 Dell City 97 68 94 67 / 30 40 30 40 Fort Hancock 99 72 95 71 / 40 50 20 60 Loma Linda 90 66 86 64 / 30 50 20 50 Fabens 98 71 93 71 / 30 50 20 50 Santa Teresa 95 70 91 69 / 30 50 20 60 White Sands HQ 96 71 92 69 / 40 60 50 60 Jornada Range 95 68 91 67 / 50 60 30 60 Hatch 98 69 93 67 / 40 50 30 50 Columbus 98 69 93 69 / 40 60 20 60 Orogrande 94 67 89 66 / 40 60 30 50 Mayhill 82 55 78 54 / 70 50 80 50 Mescalero 83 55 80 54 / 70 50 80 50 Timberon 81 54 78 53 / 70 50 70 50 Winston 85 56 83 55 / 80 30 60 30 Hillsboro 94 64 90 62 / 50 50 50 40 Spaceport 94 67 90 66 / 40 40 30 40 Lake Roberts 89 56 86 56 / 60 30 70 40 Hurley 91 64 89 62 / 30 30 50 40 Cliff 95 65 94 64 / 40 20 40 20 Mule Creek 90 62 89 61 / 30 20 30 20 Faywood 91 64 88 62 / 50 50 50 40 Animas 94 69 92 69 / 30 40 30 50 Hachita 94 68 91 66 / 30 40 30 60 Antelope Wells 93 66 91 66 / 50 60 40 60 Cloverdale 87 63 86 63 / 60 50 50 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown