Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
985 FXUS64 KEPZ 161159 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 559 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of the Divide through Wednesday then across the Borderland for the end of the week. -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow winds, and areas blowing dust. - Below to near normal high temperatures each day becoming warmer than normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1024 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Fairly disorganized pattern to start the forecast period as high pressure was centered over the southern CONUS/Gulf of Mexico area but an easterly wave has weakened the ridge but it looks like we continue to have a decent fetch of moisture to keep thunderstorms continuing each day. Closed low pressure system looks to sit just off the coast of Baja throughout the day Wednesday, but by Thursday it starts it trajectory northward and continues to slowly meander north into the early weekend. It appears like this low pressure stays too far away from the Borderland (stays over Baja and moves northward over SoCal) to bring us any good rain chances as AZ really gets the brunt of it. Once the easterly wave rounds the aforementioned high pressure and moves onshore, high pressure re- establishes itself Friday and especially into the weekend. Can expect daily rounds of monsoonal thunderstorms with the same monsoonal hazards expected: localized flash flooding, hail possible with stronger storms, gusty outflow winds and any blowing dust that may accompany outflows. Temperatures stay below normal the next few days but returns to above normal by early next week as high pressure looks to broaden over much of the southern US possibly bringing the return of triple digits to a number of locations Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mainly SKC persists this AM before scattered TS develop over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Outflows from the activity could spark isolated TS near the terminals later in the day, but confidence is too low for any mention in the TAFs. Areas west of KDMN are most favored to see convection today, leading to gusty outflows heading to the east during the evening hours. Gusts to 20-25kts are forecast behind the outflows later in the period. Other than outflows, prevailing winds will be W-SW and modestly breezy around 10kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period with daily storm chances persisting. With a weak synoptic pattern over the region into the weekend, winds remain light to modestly breezy from the W-SW outside of outflow boundaries. Storm chances are favored over western areas this afternoon with potential for locally heavy rainfall mainly west of the Divide. Better storm chances across the area for Thu/Fri, starting in eastern areas and shifting to the west late in the week with the moisture plume. Fuels will continue to moisten with the ongoing rain chances, but frequent lightning will make new fire starts possible. Temperatures remain near normal for mid July. Min RHs range from 15-35% through the weekend, except above 7500ft where they are 30-55%. Vent rates will be fair to very good through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 99 77 98 76 / 10 20 20 40 Sierra Blanca 91 69 90 69 / 20 30 50 40 Las Cruces 96 70 95 70 / 20 20 10 40 Alamogordo 96 70 95 69 / 20 10 30 30 Cloudcroft 73 52 72 52 / 40 10 70 30 Truth or Consequences 96 70 94 69 / 40 40 40 40 Silver City 86 61 85 63 / 80 50 70 50 Deming 97 69 96 70 / 30 40 20 50 Lordsburg 91 67 91 68 / 70 50 50 50 West El Paso Metro 96 75 95 76 / 10 20 20 40 Dell City 97 72 96 72 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Hancock 98 76 97 76 / 20 30 40 50 Loma Linda 90 67 88 68 / 10 10 30 30 Fabens 97 74 96 74 / 10 20 10 30 Santa Teresa 96 72 94 73 / 10 20 20 50 White Sands HQ 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 30 40 Jornada Range 96 70 95 71 / 20 20 30 40 Hatch 98 70 98 71 / 30 30 30 50 Columbus 96 72 95 73 / 30 40 10 50 Orogrande 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 30 30 Mayhill 84 58 82 57 / 40 10 70 30 Mescalero 85 57 82 57 / 40 10 70 40 Timberon 81 56 79 56 / 30 10 60 30 Winston 88 57 85 58 / 60 50 70 50 Hillsboro 94 64 93 65 / 50 50 50 50 Spaceport 96 67 94 68 / 30 30 40 40 Lake Roberts 88 56 87 57 / 80 60 80 60 Hurley 89 63 89 63 / 70 50 60 50 Cliff 93 64 92 66 / 80 60 70 50 Mule Creek 89 61 88 63 / 90 70 70 50 Faywood 91 64 89 65 / 60 40 60 50 Animas 91 66 90 68 / 70 50 50 50 Hachita 91 67 90 67 / 60 50 40 50 Antelope Wells 88 65 90 68 / 70 60 50 60 Cloverdale 81 61 84 64 / 80 60 70 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson