Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
496 FXUS64 KEPZ 200536 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1136 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 - Thunderstorms in the El Paso area for the next hour or two may produce highly localized heavy downpours, but storm motion is fairly steady. - Drier air moving in for Sunday and Monday will significantly restrict thunderstorm development. High temperatures will climb back into the lower to middle 90s in the lowlands. - A rapid return of moisture will bring periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday Morning. Heavy rain will pose a risk of flash flooding area wide, favoring areas east of the Continental Divide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are erupting over El Paso and Juarez currently, significantly delayed from what several runs of the HRRR had been insisting on. The appear to be developing in response to very weak outflow boundary convergence. The risk of localized heavy rainfall will last for a couple hours over the metro area before shifting east. Radar shows weak outflow approaching EPZ from the SW, which could increase coverage over ELP in the next hour. Otherwise, tomorrow and Monday continue to look like down days as drier air in the low levels filters in from the NW, and weak ridging develops over the area. Surface dewpoints look set to tank into the 30s by Monday afternoon, though the fringes of some moisture may impinge on the Bootheel late Monday. A closed upper low moving into southern California Monday will weaken into an open trough Tuesday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will stay strong over east Texas, causing the whole pattern to amplify. SW winds aloft will back around to more of a SSW-S direction and begin advecting copious moisture into the region Tuesday afternoon/evening, along with convectively-induced shortwave troughs rolling up from the Sierra Madres. At the same time, a sprawling surface high over Ontario will build south and west over the Plains. While not quite a backdoor front, increasing SE low level winds will pull plenty of low level moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. With moisture below and above, PWAT values will approach 1.50 inches across much of the CWA by Wednesday morning. The 500 mb pattern is also very Fall-like, with much cooler temperatures aloft despite the subtropical tap. High aloft, the upper trough takes on a negative tilt configuration, with strong upper diffluence across SE Arizona, NM, and far west Texas. This overall pattern basically stays in place through Thursday night, with widespread showers and thunderstorms, and likely highly- efficient warm-rain processes dominating. The rain will mostly be modulated by the timing of upper level disturbances rolling up from the south, but the forcing is strong enough to keep rain chances going through the night time hours. So, Tuesday will probably start off with the usual diurnal trend for convection initiation, but storms look to persist well through the night. Steering flow will favor S to N training of storms, and the highest precip amounts will be determined by where precisely these patterns set up. Wednesday and Thursday also look plenty moist with additional forcing, but convection will be impacted by leftover cloud cover. The 00Z GFS is trying to shift the axis for heavy precipitation a little further east Wednesday Night and Thursday Night. This would still put the Sacramento Mountains and even ELP in the heaviest rain axis, but start to ease up on the Gila, if the shift holds. There is still plenty of time for models to shift back and forth between now and then. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Pulling thunder out of the TAFs at ELP did the trick, and it took less than an hour for convection to start popping up over the area, despite very weak forcing and disappointing thunderstorm coverage south of the border. Murphy`s Law prevails. Expect VCTS for the next 2 hours before activity pushes east with the weak outflow boundary moving in from the SW. Remainder of the TAFs are unchanged for tomorrow, with drier air severely restricting thunderstorm development. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Very little fire concerns over the next week. Brief drying period Sunday and Monday with lower humidities, but rapid moisture increase Tuesday into next weekend will raise humidities sharply, bring periods of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding to much of the forecast area. Min RH: Lowlands 18-23% Sunday/Monday increasing to 35-50% Tuesday through Friday. Mountains20-30% Sunday/Monday increasing to 60-80% Tuesday through Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Tuesday, becoming poor-fair Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 91 66 93 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 89 63 90 / 30 0 0 0 Las Cruces 61 88 61 89 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 64 88 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 66 48 67 / 10 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 60 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 61 90 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 67 91 65 92 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 64 93 63 93 / 30 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 69 96 69 97 / 20 0 0 10 Loma Linda 63 85 63 86 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 66 93 65 94 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 90 61 91 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 89 68 91 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 62 88 62 89 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 62 90 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 64 92 64 92 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 87 60 89 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 54 80 53 79 / 10 0 0 20 Mescalero 53 76 52 78 / 10 0 0 20 Timberon 52 76 52 77 / 10 0 0 10 Winston 52 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 63 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 59 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 53 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 58 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 59 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 63 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 63 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 20 Cloverdale 61 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman