Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
134 FXUS64 KEPZ 070409 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1009 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1008 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through the week. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday with some locally heavy rain possible, favoring northern and eastern areas. - Drier conditions Thursday through Saturday, possibly trending back up Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1008 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Satellite shows positively tilted trough persisting from the Dakotas down across the Great Basin to SoCal. Southwest flow continues over the CWA. The last of the high level moisture from Octave is still streaming over the area. Meanwhile further south, Hurricane Priscilla slowly churns northwest hugging the Pacific Coast of the Baja. As mentioned before, she still is not contributing any moisture to our area, but she has allowed the sub-tropical ridge to build west across northern Mexico. Under this weak flow well aloft, mid-level flow has turned east and southeast, importing some moisture from the Gulf of America. At the surface a quasi-dryline is moving west into the CWA. It currently sits in the far eastern CWA, but the models showing it reaching at least the RG Valley by Tuesday afternoon and at least to the Cont Divide by late afternoon. Thus, this moisture which has already fueled a few showers/thunderstorms this evening over Otero and Hudspeth Counties should move further west Tuesday. With modest CAPE values and marginal shear, some storms could become strong to near severe. Unseasonably high PWs will also mean storms could produce some heavy rain, though storm motion looks to be around 15-20 mph, helping mitigate some flood potential. Wednesday should continue with this monsoon-ish pattern; more rain and storms. Thursday through Saturday...sub-tropical ridge forms a closed high center over west Texas. This will begin to shunt the moisture plume mostly north and west of the area. Slight chances of rain could materialize out west near the Arizona border. Sunday and Monday...both GFS/ECMWF show Pacific trough finally making some inroads eastward, and helping push moisture plume back over our area, along with drawing some moisture up from the tropical system-to-be Raymond. Looks like more rain both days. GFS even brings the remnants of Raymond up over our area Tuesday. Stay tuned as with most tropical features, the models are bound to change several more times. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Generally VFR through the period with increasing BKN200-250. Isolated BKN080 -SHRA Otero and Hudspeth Counties until around 10Z. After 18Z...increasing SCT-BKN100 BKN200 over much of the area, with isolated BKN080CB -SHRA/-TSRA from the Rio Grande Valley east. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots til around 12Z, then becoming east/southeast 10-15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Low level moisture will be moving in over the next 24-48 hours which will raise min RH`s into the 30s/40s by Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday with the main focus in the mountains northern and eastern areas. Some locally heavy rain is possible, especially Tue night. Drier air, but with RH`s still above 20-25%, will return by the end of the week with temperatures warming back into the mid 80s to lower 90s. More moisture will start to push back in with remnant tropical moisture moving in from the eastern Pacific this weekend and especially early next week. Winds will be breezy to occasionally windy starting Tuesday night and continuing through Friday from the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 69 84 67 / 10 10 20 30 Sierra Blanca 84 59 79 57 / 10 10 10 10 Las Cruces 84 63 80 61 / 10 10 20 40 Alamogordo 83 60 81 60 / 10 10 30 50 Cloudcroft 59 44 57 43 / 20 10 40 50 Truth or Consequences 81 60 78 59 / 0 0 30 40 Silver City 79 56 74 56 / 0 0 10 20 Deming 88 64 83 63 / 0 10 20 30 Lordsburg 86 63 82 64 / 0 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 87 68 82 67 / 10 10 20 30 Dell City 85 62 81 60 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 91 67 86 65 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 79 60 74 58 / 20 10 20 20 Fabens 89 66 85 65 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 86 65 81 64 / 10 10 20 30 White Sands HQ 84 63 81 62 / 10 10 20 40 Jornada Range 83 62 80 60 / 10 10 30 50 Hatch 86 62 83 61 / 10 10 30 40 Columbus 89 65 84 65 / 0 0 20 30 Orogrande 81 61 79 60 / 10 10 20 40 Mayhill 67 49 67 48 / 20 10 50 50 Mescalero 71 49 70 47 / 20 10 50 60 Timberon 68 47 67 47 / 20 10 40 40 Winston 74 50 71 50 / 0 0 20 30 Hillsboro 81 56 77 57 / 0 10 20 40 Spaceport 82 58 79 58 / 10 10 40 50 Lake Roberts 79 52 75 51 / 0 0 10 30 Hurley 81 58 76 57 / 0 0 10 20 Cliff 86 60 83 60 / 0 0 10 20 Mule Creek 83 56 80 56 / 0 0 10 10 Faywood 80 58 76 58 / 0 0 20 30 Animas 87 63 83 63 / 0 0 10 10 Hachita 86 62 81 62 / 0 0 10 20 Antelope Wells 87 61 82 61 / 0 0 10 20 Cloverdale 82 60 79 60 / 0 0 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner