Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
396
FXUS64 KEPZ 270445
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
945 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 938 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

 - Dry weather, with some high clouds, mild temperatures, and light
   winds through the week, including Thanksgiving day.

 - Cooler temperatures arrive by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 938 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

For Turkey Day, a shortwave ridge shifts over the region, allowing
temperatures to be slightly above normal under fair skies with light
winds continuing. Generally zonal flow takes over for the rest of
the week as temps hold above normal.

An upper trough swings through the Central US on Saturday with a
cold front diving down the High Plains, which arrives in our area
that evening. The cold air/winds are not expected to be that
significant through Sunday, since the surface high stays over the
Midwest. Gusty winds (to 25 mph) can be expected along west
slopes of mtns on Sunday as the front struggles to get past the
RGV. Temperatures fall to slightly below average early next week
behind the front with another front arriving by Tue.

It seems like the storm track will be too far north to give us much
chance for precip during the first half of the week. A second upper
trough swings through the Central Rockies on Monday, bringing precip
chances to the northern part of NM. We look to remain dry in our CWA
with breezy winds on Monday as the shortwave passes by. There`s a
very low chance (<20%) of mtn snow showers Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 938 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds remain
AOB 6kts with some variability. Cirrus shield shifts overhead from
the west by the early morning, persisting through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 936 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Quiet weather conditions will prevail through the next several
days. Main fire weather concern will be limited mixing heights and
light winds, which will yield poor vent rates for much of the
area this afternoon and Thursday. Expect significant improvement
on Friday outside the Tularosa Basin as zonal flow aloft takes
over. Weekend precip chances have dissipated.  A fast moving
trough will bring a slight uptick in northwest winds on Monday,
and we`re hanging onto a slight chance for precip as it passes
through during the day on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  46  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               64  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               64  40  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  31  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    61  40  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              61  38  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67  38  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                64  37  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       67  47  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                68  38  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73  46  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               63  43  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   70  44  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             65  42  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           65  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            64  38  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    66  38  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 67  41  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                65  41  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  60  34  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                61  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 56  33  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  57  32  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                62  41  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                62  37  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             64  34  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   62  36  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    69  35  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               65  36  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  61  40  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   65  38  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  64  36  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           65  39  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               62  44  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson