098
FXUS64 KEPZ 312351
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
551 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Thunderstorms will be more confined to the higher terrain
    areas Saturday and Sunday with isolated activity over the
    desert lowlands.

 -  Drier and warmer conditions expected Tuesday through
    Thursday.

 -  Confidence is increasing that temperatures return to the
    triple digits next Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Convection is mostly behaving itself today after yesterday`s
crushing disappointment for the lowlands. Showers have been
fairly weak, but with good areal coverage over the higher terrain,
and just isolated lightning strikes. There`s just an outside
chance of an isolated storm over the Otero Mesa or down in
Hudspeth County through early this evening.

Sunday will be similar to today, with fairly inhibited convection,
mostly confined to the higher elevations of the Sacs/Gila.
However, the upper low still anchored off the northern Baja
Peninsula will finally set sail tomorrow, carrying the mid-level
remnants of T.S. Alvin up into the Sierra Madres. With this
additional moisture, isolated thunderstorms could work their way
into parts of the NM Bootheel before sunset.

The upper low will trek into southwest Arizona tomorrow evening,
and open up as it reaches the Four Corners Monday afternoon. Our
low level moisture feed off the Gulf was already interrupted
today, and we`ll see low level winds shift to the southwest
tomorrow. So, we`ll have worked-over low level moisture but an
influx of mid and upper level moisture to work with as the trough
sweeps through. The result will be scattered, mostly light rain
showers and embedded thunderstorms working into our area Sunday
night into Monday morning, and decreasing precip chances in the
afternoon. PoPs are relatively high, but QPF is quite low.

A secondary upper low still looks to graze northern New Mexico
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light shower
chances.

The remainder of the week looks to stay mostly dry, with
temperatures steadily ramping up Wednesday onwards. We`ll be
flirting with the 100-degree mark at ELP by Thursday or Friday as
the subtropical ridge sprawls out across northern Mexico and south
Texas.

Dryline sloshing will try to pull low level moisture back towards
the Rio Grande Thursday night and Friday night, but with very
limited precip chances as drier air mixes back down each
afternoon.

An upper level trough will try to flatten out the ridge late in
the week, which could bring some breezy southwest winds to the
area Friday afternoon, but right now it doesn`t look capable of
causing any dust problems, and should cause our temperatures to
plateau for a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

There are a few isolated thunderstorms across the region, but they
are generally confined to the higher terrain. There is still a
slight chance a rogue storm could work off the mountains, but
right now I`m not expecting any impacts from the thunderstorms.
We will have to wait and see if any outflow boundaries are
generated. Later tonight the convection will die off. We will have
generally light winds tonight and high or unlimited ceilings. On
Sunday we will have another slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms. Our surface winds will be from the south or
southwest and could be a little gusty during the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will again be mostly confined to
the higher terrain yet again on Sunday. An upper level
disturbance will bring spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms
to a broader area Sunday night into Monday, along with breezy west
winds Monday afternoon. But RH values will remain elevated.

Generally drier and warmer conditions are expected as we head through
the week, but with relatively light winds mitigating fire weather
concerns even as we dry out. An upper level disturbance may graze
northern New Mexico on Friday, which could bring breezy west to
southwest winds back to southern New Mexico, just as RH values
drop into the single digits again in the lowlands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  97  72  89 /  10  10  50  40
Sierra Blanca            62  90  65  85 /  20  20  40  40
Las Cruces               64  93  65  85 /  10  10  50  40
Alamogordo               65  95  63  84 /  10  10  40  40
Cloudcroft               50  70  48  62 /  10  50  40  60
Truth or Consequences    66  95  66  84 /  10  20  60  60
Silver City              59  87  56  76 /  10  20  60  60
Deming                   65  95  65  86 /  10  20  60  50
Lordsburg                64  91  60  82 /  10  10  60  60
West El Paso Metro       71  94  71  86 /  10  10  60  40
Dell City                64  95  68  88 /  20  10  30  40
Fort Hancock             66  97  70  92 /  20  20  50  40
Loma Linda               66  88  65  80 /  20  10  50  40
Fabens                   67  96  70  89 /  10  10  60  40
Santa Teresa             66  92  68  85 /  10  10  60  50
White Sands HQ           71  95  71  85 /  10  10  50  60
Jornada Range            63  94  63  84 /  10  10  50  60
Hatch                    64  97  66  87 /  10  10  50  60
Columbus                 68  95  68  87 /  10  10  60  40
Orogrande                65  93  66  83 /  20  10  50  40
Mayhill                  54  82  54  76 /  20  50  40  60
Mescalero                53  82  53  73 /  10  40  40  60
Timberon                 51  80  50  70 /  20  50  40  50
Winston                  53  86  52  76 /  20  20  60  60
Hillsboro                61  92  60  83 /  10  20  60  60
Spaceport                61  94  60  85 /  10  10  50  60
Lake Roberts             50  87  50  76 /  10  20  60  70
Hurley                   58  89  57  80 /  10  20  60  60
Cliff                    59  93  58  82 /  10  20  50  60
Mule Creek               53  88  52  77 /  10  20  60  60
Faywood                  61  89  60  79 /  10  20  60  50
Animas                   64  90  61  83 /  10  20  70  60
Hachita                  63  90  61  83 /  10  20  60  60
Antelope Wells           63  88  61  83 /  10  40  70  60
Cloverdale               61  83  60  77 /  20  30  70  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice