Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
255
FXUS64 KEPZ 252347
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
547 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026
- Heat Advisory in effect for Rio Grande Valley of Texas, Dona
Ana County, NM, Luna County, NM, and parts of the Tularosa
Basin and White Sands Missile Range until 9 PM MDT.
- Record high temperatures for the Borderland today and near-
record through the rest of the week, with lowland temperatures
reaching 105 in several places today.
- Isolated rain showers and storms in the mountains today and tomorrow,
especially in the Sacramento Mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026
The upper-level high remains in place over southern New Mexico and
that will bring record high temperatures for much of the lowlands
for late August. Several lowland locations will see temperatures
above the triple digit mark, as indicated by the Heat Advisory in
effect for the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, Dona Ana County, NM, Luna
County, NM, parts of the Tularosa Basin and White Sands Missile
Range until 9 PM. There will be enough orographic lift for a couple
thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon, especially in the
Sacramento Mountains, but any measurable precipitation will be low.
For Wednesday, the high will drift slightly to the west, but it will
continue to provide the region with another day of near-record
high temperatures. Conditions for the lowlands should be dry, but
the 12Z HRRR run is increasing precipitation coverage to the
lowlands Wednesday night. I am a little skeptical that rain will
reach that far south into the lowlands Wednesday night, but on
Thursday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have precipitable water
values for the lowlands around 1-1.2", giving the lowlands a
slight (20-30%) chance for precipitation on Thursday
afternoon/evening. The upper-level high should tamp measurable
precipitation down, though. Friday`s PWAT values are about the
same, though I also expect the upper-level high to suppress rain
amounts for the lowlands as well on Friday.
For the weekend, the high pressure system is expected to weaken and
shift eastward. This will cool temperatures down a notch (but
still above average), and better conditions for isolated (20-40%)
thunderstorm development will be present on Saturday and Sunday
for the region. As August transitions to September, both extended
models still indicate we will have some monsoonal flow enter the
region, which should increase our rain chances for early next
week. We will continue to monitor what the extended GFS and ECMWF
runs indicate.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026
More hot dry weather giving us VFR conditions for the next 24
hours. We have some low end wind gusts this afternoon, but those
wind gusts will drop off a little before sunset. Winds tonight
will be generally light. The low end wind gusts will return for a
few hours tomorrow afternoon. We did see some mid and high clouds
today, but our ceilings tonight will be unlimited. We will see
more fair weather clouds on Wednesday, but our ceilings will
continue to be unlimited.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026
More record high heat is in store this afternoon and evening, with
min RH values in the low to mid teens, followed by poor recovery
levels overnight (20-30%). The Sacramento Mountains will be the
exception, as recovery RHs will be near 100% thanks to afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. The Gila National Forest will be drier
today and tomorrow, and recovery RHs will only rise to 50-60%.
Barring afternoon thunderstorm outflows, winds will be light, and
ventilation rates should be very good. Wednesday will be very
similar to Tuesday, though a slight degree or two cooler. Better
lowland moisture will return on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 75 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 68 100 69 97 / 0 0 0 10
Las Cruces 72 102 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 73 101 71 99 / 0 10 10 20
Cloudcroft 57 77 53 75 / 0 20 20 50
Truth or Consequences 74 101 73 99 / 0 0 10 10
Silver City 68 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 20
Deming 71 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 72 103 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 78 103 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 71 102 70 99 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Hancock 74 107 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 70 96 70 94 / 0 0 0 20
Fabens 73 104 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 73 102 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 77 103 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 73 102 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 73 105 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 73 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 71 100 70 98 / 0 0 0 10
Mayhill 61 89 58 87 / 0 40 20 70
Mescalero 60 89 57 86 / 0 20 10 50
Timberon 58 87 56 84 / 0 20 10 50
Winston 64 92 62 90 / 0 10 10 60
Hillsboro 72 100 71 99 / 0 0 0 30
Spaceport 71 101 70 100 / 0 0 10 0
Lake Roberts 61 93 61 92 / 0 0 0 40
Hurley 68 99 69 97 / 0 0 0 10
Cliff 69 103 70 102 / 0 0 0 10
Mule Creek 67 99 67 98 / 0 0 0 10
Faywood 70 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 20
Animas 72 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 71 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 69 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 67 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
County-Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Dona Ana
County-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West
Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice