Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
735 FXUS64 KEPZ 301337 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 637 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .UPDATE... Issued at 508 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 Backdoor cold front has pushed into parts of the area. Its leading edge appears to snake from just east of Bosque del Apache, as to the far northern edge of the Tularosa Basin. Then it`s run aground in the Sacramento Mountains, but has pushed through the Otero Mesa and Hudspeth County, and bulges west of Las Cruces. We`re seeing a few gusts around 35 mph on several of the better-sited personal weather stations online in the high elevations of west El Paso, and in a few spots around Organ and Talavera in Dona Ana County. And we`re getting breezy here at Santa Teresa too as the winds push through between the southern end of the Franklins and the northern end of the Juarez mountains. Need to still make some minor tweaks to the wind grids through the morning hours. The breeziness has obliterated the usual cold air drainage in the Mesilla Valley, so the usually terrible and flawed NBM Min Temps actually fared well there for once. Not so in the Gila, ahead of the front. Low stratus is lapping along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains, with freezing fog likely in some areas. The air mass behind the front is fairly shallow, so the clouds and fog haven`t reached Cloudcroft, but likely extend up James Canyon a ways. webcams and all-sky cams at the Mayhill observatory clusters seem to indicate fog, but not terribly dense. Forest Service camera on the James Ridge lookout shows the stratus and fog deck to the east as well. Will assume this is fairly light freezing fog and mostly stratus overcast unless webcams suggest otherwise, thus no advisory for now. Edits were also made to the NBM grids for Sunday and Monday night. Tonight is tricky. The easterly flow behind the front will wash- out by this evening, and a shortwave trough moving across northern New Mexico will keep south to southwest winds perturbed across the area through dawn. Not strong winds, but enough to keep things mixed and limit radiational cooling, though we`ll still see some reflection in the most sheltered areas. Monday night is a better set up for colder temps. A secondary, saggy shortwave trough will exit the area just after midnight, allowing for lighter winds to develop. What little pressure gradient exists by dawn will favor a light northerly flow, supporting the Mesilla Valley cold air drainage. Dewpoints will also drop into lower to middle-20s. MAV MOS At DMN goes down to 29, with 31 at LRU. MET MOS is similar, but seems a little too cold for Sunday night`s temps, but more reasonable for Monday night. There`s a good shot at a freeze at Santa Teresa, including up here on the mesa, and the area south of La Union that hasn`t quite hit 32 yet. Areas of far NE El Paso (north of Loop-375) into Chaparral could see freezing temps too, aided by that light northerly flow. Mid-30s are more likely at KELP. The Lower Valley from Socorro and below will likely reach freezing too, but I think they`ve seen a freeze already. Expect lower to middle 20s in the colder, rural lowland areas (Jornada Range, Hatch, White Sands National Park, Dell City), and some 10s up in the cold valleys of the Gila (Lake Roberts, Gila Hot Springs, Winston, and Poverty Creek). && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 - A cold front will push in tonight, bringing easterly breeziness and temperatures falling to near or below normal. - Dry conditions, gentle warming, and light afternoon breezes through midweek. - A storm system brings a low to medium chance of lowland rain and mountain snow showers later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 917 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025 A backdoor cold front has reached the CWA and will shift winds easterly early this morning. West mtn slopes will see the strongest gusts, especially the Huecos, before subsiding a bit during the day as the pressure gradient relaxes. NBM post-frontal winds are still a bit too light for my liking Sun AM, so went with 75th %-ile, which brought gusts to 25-35 mph along west slopes. Temps will be knocked down to near or slightly below normal for Sun behind the front. Wind chills in the 20s can be expected early in the morning east of the RGV. An upper trough swings through the Southern Rockies early Mon, resulting in modestly breezy west winds and increased cloud cover. Impacts will be negligible for us from this system as precip chances remain to the north before the trough ejects into the Plains during the day. A secondary trough hangs back into Mon night, but again, impacts are not anticipated other than additional cloud cover. The progressive pattern continues through midweek with another trough diving down through the Great Basin. There is considerable uncertainty among the global models regarding what the system does when it reaches the Four Corners region Wed. The LREF consensus (most-likely scenario) now shows the system remaining in the main flow and pushing through here Thu/Fri with low confidence in timing and speed among the models. Precip chances have increased in the NBM as some subtropical moisture is scooped up ahead of the trough on Thu. Some ensemble members (less- likely scenario) still have a lobe of energy cutting off and kind of retrograding off the SoCal coast for the second half of the week, which would keep our weather unsettled into next weekend. Confidence is low in determining how much precip we`ll get and how much cold air will accompany the trough as it swings through later in the week. The lowlands will most likely see only rain with a rain/snow mix in the mtns on Thu. Dry, NW flow aloft returns behind this system. Temps will be near or above normal after Sun, followed by a cooldown later in the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 A shallow back door front has pushed into the area, with some gusts around 30 knots noted west of the Franklin and Organ Mountains. The front may barely make it to DMN and TCS, but will quickly wash out by late morning. It doesn`t seem likely that we will see the usual ENE gustiness at DMN that often sticks around behind a backdoor front. By late afternoon, light south flow will prevail in most areas. They may trend towards the southwest Sunday night as a shortwave trough passes to our north, and will likely interrupt the usual drainage winds at TCS. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions at all terminals. There are some low clouds and fog along the east slopes of the Sacramentos, which will burn off before 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 636 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 A shallow backdoor cold front has pushed fog and low clouds into the eastern slopes of Sacramento Mountains, and some gusty down- slope winds along western slopes of lower mountain ranges. The clouds will dissipate and winds will diminish by early afternoon. Vent rates will be limited in the lowlands today, with improving conditions over the next few days. More seasonable temperatures will persist this week, with light winds. An upper level disturbance may be able to tap into some moisture for precipitation Thursday into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 38 66 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 33 62 32 63 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 32 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 32 60 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 28 40 22 40 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 32 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 31 55 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 32 64 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 36 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 37 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 24 66 20 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 33 70 30 70 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 34 58 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 35 67 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 34 63 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 36 63 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 27 60 23 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 28 63 24 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 36 66 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 33 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 31 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 28 50 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 26 50 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 28 53 19 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 33 59 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 29 58 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 22 55 16 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 32 58 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 28 61 22 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 26 57 20 57 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 32 58 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 37 63 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 63 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 38 66 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 38 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman