Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
333 FXUS64 KEPZ 181123 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 523 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 450 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Deeper monsoonal moisture on southerly winds will persist through Monday, with abundant cloud coverage and chances for thunderstorms. - Moisture will diminish around midweek to near normal, allowing for more isolated storm coverage. Even drier air expected late in the week, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 WV imagery showing deep moisture plume persisting over the CWA but also shows signs of the upper high center reforming further west. Models have been consistent in showing the high center reforming just east of the Four Corners Monday. This has already shut the southerly flow off, but at least initially the sub-tropical moisture in place will not be scoured out; instead just re-cycled under the upper high. Monday through Wednesday...the trapped moisture will continue to produce isolated/scattered thunderstorms each day-mostly mountains in the afternoon then all areas in the evening. PWs will slowly decrease from 1.2-1.4 inches Monday to .9-1.2 inches Wednesday. Thus although thunderstorm coverage still relatively widespread, flood potential will gradually decrease through the period. Thursday and Friday...upper high over the Four Corners strengthens and expands. Still some re-cycled moisture under the high but PWs continue dropping to mostly under 1 inch. Thus expect isolated mountain thunderstorms afternoon with slight chance of evening thunderstorms elsewhere. Saturday and Sunday...further erosion of rain chances as upper high drops down over much of New Mexico. This will begin entraining some drier air from the midwest. PWs well under 1 inch both days and with warming and subsidence (500mb temps warming to as warm as -3C), only expecting slight chance of mountain thunderstorms each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 VFR conditions with skies SCT to BKN at 10-15 kft, with FEW at 7-10 kft this morning. Skies will gradually become FEW to SCT through the morning, with SCT skies during the afternoon at 10-15 kft with CU development. Scattered showers and storms will be present during the late afternoon and evening hours, especially for areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. That said, confidence is relatively low for direct impacts to terminals, but enough for PROB30s for KELP after 00Z. If TSRA impacts in the vicinity of terminal, brief MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with gusty/erratic outflow winds, lowering CIGs, and reductions to VIS. Prevailing Winds during the afternoon will be generally south at 5-10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 450 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 With continued moist conditions, fire weather concerns are low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the day. Temperatures this afternoon will remain slightly below the seasonal average for mid August. Afternoon Min RH values will be above 25-30 percent areawide, with slight drying trend for areas along the AZ/NM state border. Prevailing afternoon winds will be generally south at 5-10 mph. The main threats with afternoon convection will be heavy rain and localized flash flooding, especially in the vicinity of recent burn scars, gusty and erratic outflow winds can`t be ruled out as well. High pressure aloft will slowly settle in across the Central Rockies and Four Corners vicinity through the week. Remnant monsoonal moisture will remain in place for the most part, but slowly diminish through the week as drier air from the northeast begins to infiltrate. That said, isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain in the forecast through the work week, but chances will slowly decrease. Min RH values will follow suit, with values slowly falling to the upper teens to low 20s buy the weekend. Winds continue to look generally light and variable, or following terrain/drainage/diurnal wind flow regimes. Temperatures rise back to or slightly above the seasonal average through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 74 93 73 / 30 50 40 20 Sierra Blanca 89 67 88 65 / 60 50 60 20 Las Cruces 91 68 91 68 / 40 50 30 30 Alamogordo 90 68 89 67 / 50 40 40 20 Cloudcroft 67 50 68 50 / 70 40 70 30 Truth or Consequences 91 68 90 69 / 40 40 30 30 Silver City 86 62 86 62 / 70 50 70 50 Deming 95 69 94 69 / 40 50 40 40 Lordsburg 93 68 93 69 / 50 50 60 50 West El Paso Metro 93 72 91 72 / 30 50 40 20 Dell City 93 69 92 68 / 40 40 40 10 Fort Hancock 95 72 93 71 / 60 50 60 20 Loma Linda 86 66 85 66 / 50 50 50 20 Fabens 94 72 92 70 / 40 50 40 20 Santa Teresa 92 71 91 70 / 30 50 40 20 White Sands HQ 93 71 91 72 / 50 50 50 20 Jornada Range 91 68 91 69 / 50 50 50 30 Hatch 94 69 93 69 / 50 50 40 40 Columbus 93 71 93 71 / 30 60 30 40 Orogrande 89 67 88 66 / 40 50 50 20 Mayhill 80 56 80 56 / 80 40 70 20 Mescalero 80 54 80 54 / 80 40 60 30 Timberon 76 54 76 54 / 60 40 60 20 Winston 85 57 84 57 / 60 50 60 40 Hillsboro 91 64 91 65 / 60 50 50 50 Spaceport 91 67 91 67 / 40 50 40 30 Lake Roberts 86 57 86 57 / 70 50 80 50 Hurley 88 64 87 64 / 60 50 60 50 Cliff 93 66 93 65 / 60 40 70 40 Mule Creek 90 62 89 62 / 50 40 70 40 Faywood 88 65 87 65 / 60 50 60 50 Animas 93 69 93 68 / 50 60 60 50 Hachita 92 67 91 67 / 50 60 50 50 Antelope Wells 90 66 90 65 / 60 70 50 50 Cloverdale 86 64 87 64 / 60 60 60 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers