Area Forecast Discussion
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808
FXUS64 KEPZ 081734
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1134 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

 - Drier and hotter Monday through the weekend with many lowland
   areas exceeding 100 degrees. Heat Advisories may be necessary
   for the lowlands midweek.

 - Moisture will occasionally seep in from the east, giving the
   Sacramento Mtns a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday. Additional
   moisture into the area Friday and Saturday could produce
   isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Triple digit temperatures make their presence felt today as a
shortwave ridge is firmly in our region. Dewpoint temperatures in
the 30s and air temperatures in the upper 90s/lower 100s will keep
relative humidities for our area at or around 10%, so it will
feel very dry for the rest of the afternoon. Apart from some
lingering high-level clouds, skies will be generally sunny.

The longwave trough off of New Mexico will deepen on Tuesday,
bringing upper-level southerly flow into the high terrains. A
thunderstorm or two is possible for the Sacramentos, but moisture
levels should remain relatively low.

For the rest of the week, the Borderland will be under a
subtropical high that is centered over South Texas and eventually
moves over the Chihuahuan Desert by the weekend. Temperatures will
be about 4-7 degrees above normal through Sunday. Lowland
hotspots could reach 105 on Tuesday and/or Wednesday, so Heat
Advisories may be needed for the lowlands if the 105 degree
threshold is met.

Moisture could make its much-needed return on Friday, but how west
the moisture will extend is still up to debate by the latest
models runs. Any percentage of precipitaion for the weekend
should remain low until the models begin to align.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the entire period. Any clouds will
be medium to high in altitude and will be relatively scattered.
Virga is possible around KTCS at 19Z through tonight. Winds will
be relatively light and variable, maybe exhibiting a southerly
flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. For
this afternoon, light S-SW winds are forecast as a few sprinkles
develop over area mountains. Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 30
mph are possible from these virga showers with minimal threat of
lightning or appreciable rainfall. A disturbance moves into the
region for Tuesday, bringing better moisture aloft and a slight
chance of dry thunderstorms. Gusty winds and dry lightning are the
main concerns for tomorrow, especially in FWZ113. SW winds will be
breezier for Tuesday, resulting in elevated fire wx as relatively
dry conditions persist. Drier and somewhat breezy Wed/Thu with
continued elevated conditions. Moisture increases from the east late
in the week with better rain/storm chances and temperatures falling
towards normal.

Min RHs range from 10-20% through Tue, then 7-17%. Vent rates will
be good to excellent through Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78 103  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  97  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               70 100  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               72  99  73 101 /   0  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               54  77  54  79 /   0  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    68  98  68 100 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City              61  91  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   68 103  68 104 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                67  98  66  98 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       76 101  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                66 100  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             74 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               70  94  70  95 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                   73 104  73 105 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             72 100  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           79 100  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            71  99  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    70 102  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 73 102  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                70  98  69  99 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                  59  88  59  91 /   0  20  10   0
Mescalero                58  88  58  88 /   0  10  10   0
Timberon                 55  84  55  86 /   0  10  10   0
Winston                  57  89  57  92 /   0  10   0   0
Hillsboro                68  96  67  98 /   0  10   0   0
Spaceport                66  98  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             58  92  57  93 /   0  10   0   0
Hurley                   63  95  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    62  98  60  99 /   0  10   0   0
Mule Creek               59  93  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  94  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   66  98  65  99 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  67  98  66  99 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           66  98  66  99 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  93  63  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Zotter