Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
686 FXUS64 KEPZ 031700 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1000 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 931 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026 - Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue through early next week with no significant weather impacts. - There is a chance (20-40%) of light rain showers and mountain snow showers next Wednesday. - Windy conditions (50% chance) possible for Thursday with a slight chance of more showers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 931 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026 A ridge of high pressure has moved over New Mexico this weekend, setting up a quiet weather pattern for the next couple of days. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and well above normal day time temperatures will be the main features of this weather pattern through Sunday. For Monday and Tuesday the ridge of high pressure will shift further to the east over central Texas, allowing a deep southwest flow pattern aloft to become established over the area. This pattern shift will maintain dry conditions, and well above normal temperatures both days. Skies will become increasingly cloudy as mid and high level moisture from the Pacific streams over the region. The warm temperatures will allow for greater mixing of the surface boundary layer of the atmosphere with the upper layers, resulting in an increase in anticipates into the low end breezy category for Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the lowlands both days. The weather will become more active on Wednesday as a fast eastward moving Pacific storm system moves onshore and into New Mexico on Wednesday. Most recent models have the track of the system further to the south than yesterday, limiting chances for precipitation for northern zones while increasing chances for rain showers in areas nearer the international border. The more southerly path of this system will limit the potential for strong winds on Wednesday down to mainly the breezy category or less. The first system will be quickly replaced by a second system dropping down from the Great Basin region into New Mexico. The path of this system is uncertain but appears to be following a more southerly trajectory that will keep precipitation chances in play for Thursday. Significantly increased wind speeds are also possible (moderate chance) for Thursday with wind speeds in the windy category of 20 to 30 mph or higher. The first and second storm systems will also combine to lower temperatures back down to seasonal averages with 50s expected for the lowlands toward the latter part of next week. The outlook for next Friday and weekend remain unsettled with high variability in forecast model outputs. Overall it should remain cooler with a potential for breezy conditions. Precip chances should remain low but it is a low confidence pattern that will likely change with subsequent model updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 931 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026 A quiet weather pattern will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF valid period with light winds, mostly clear skies and no ceilings. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 931 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026 A ridge of high pressure will maintain a quiet weather pattern over the state this weekend, resulting in light wind speeds area wide. While conditions are drier, minRH values will stay above 20 percent for a majority of the area, with only the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains dipping near critical thresholds. The ridge will flatten and shift to the east early next week, setting up a deep southwest flow aloft. This will lead to increased wind speeds in the afternoon in the afternoon, especially for mountain areas and their adjacent highlands. An upper level disturbance will advect moisture into the Desert Southwest Wednesday, elevating minimum RH values by 10 to 20 percent by Wednesday with a slight chance of showers. A second storm system will bring increased westerly winds, with gusts of 35 mph common by Friday. While winds may reach critical thresholds, elevated RH will help to keep critical fire weather conditions tempered. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 44 70 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 41 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 37 66 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 33 49 34 46 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 40 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 61 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 39 69 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 37 65 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 34 70 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 41 73 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 43 63 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 41 71 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 40 67 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 45 68 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 35 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 37 70 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 41 69 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 39 66 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 34 63 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 60 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 31 57 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 61 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 40 66 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 36 65 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 33 60 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 33 65 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 34 62 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 40 64 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 38 68 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 37 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 39 69 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 44 62 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen