Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
866
FXUS64 KEPZ 141703
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1103 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hottest temperatures of the year are on the way, with highs
104 to 108 across the lowlands through Tuesday.
- Mostly dry, but mountains, mainly the Sacs, will see a slight
chance of thunderstorms this weekend.
- Possible smoke impacts in parts of Grant, Sierra, and Luna
Counties from the Trout and Buck Fire next few days.
- Breezy winds Monday/Tuesday will push fire conditions to near
critical.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Sub-tropical high pressure centered over southern New Mexico and
will remain in this area through Monday while it continues to
build some more height wise. This will continue to allow hotter
temperatures over the next 2-3 days. Monday looks to be the peak
heat, at least looking at 850mb temps. But Sunday through Tuesday
all hot days. Thus have expanded Heat Advisory through Tuesday and
to include all lowland zones and also the Foothill zones of the
area mountains. El Paso and the lower Valley may even approach
Extreme Heat Warning criteria (110+) on Monday. Only light
afternoon breezes today and Sunday, but winds will pick up some
for Monday/Tuesday afternoons.
Wednesday into next weekend...the upper high very slowly begins to
migrate east, over the southern Plains Friday, and over the lower
Mississippi Valley Saturday. This will allow an easterly wave and
sub-tropical moisture to slowly work northward around the high and
into our area by Saturday. GFS still most bullish model on this
but the ECMWF is coming around to a similar solution. GFS shows
dewpoints Saturday increasing to 40-50 deg while PWs increase up
to .80 inches. Thus low POPs return to the area Saturday, with
better chances Sunday and Monday (beyond forecast period).
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
VFR conditions through the period with SKC. CU/TCU buildups over
the mountains until around 00Z...with just a slight chance of a
BKN060CB -TSRA over the Sacramento Mtns. Surface winds mainly west
8-12 knots through 03Z, then variable AOB 7 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Elevated fire conditions continuing today and Sunday, with very
low humidity and fuel moisture. Slight chance of a thunderstorm
over the mountains (mainly the Sacs). With slightly lower
dewpoints, dry lightning possible with any storm. Non-thunderstorm
winds should remain less than 12 mph. Temperatures well above
normal. For Monday and Tuesday, dryness continues but afternoon
breezes will pick up both days to west/northwest 12-17 mph,
allowing fire conditions to approach critical.
By Friday/Saturday expect wind shift to the east/southeast with
humidity slowly rising. Slight chance of thunderstorms returns to
the zones by Saturday.
Min RH: Lowlands 5-12% through Thursday. Mountains 7-14% through
Thursday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 77 107 77 108 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 67 104 67 105 / 10 10 10 0
Las Cruces 69 105 69 106 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 69 101 69 102 / 0 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 54 83 54 85 / 0 10 10 10
Truth or Consequences 71 105 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 63 98 63 99 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 68 105 68 106 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 65 105 65 105 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 77 105 77 106 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 70 105 70 106 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 72 108 72 109 / 10 10 10 0
Loma Linda 69 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 73 106 73 107 / 0 10 10 0
Santa Teresa 71 105 71 106 / 0 0 10 0
White Sands HQ 76 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 66 105 66 106 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 66 107 66 108 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 72 107 72 108 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 70 105 70 106 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 57 93 57 95 / 0 20 0 10
Mescalero 57 94 57 96 / 0 10 0 0
Timberon 55 91 55 93 / 0 10 10 0
Winston 55 98 55 99 / 0 10 0 0
Hillsboro 65 103 65 104 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 64 105 64 106 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 53 101 54 102 / 0 10 0 0
Hurley 63 102 63 103 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 54 105 55 106 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 48 100 49 101 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 66 105 66 105 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 66 105 66 105 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 68 104 68 104 / 10 10 10 0
Cloverdale 66 100 66 101 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Western El
Paso County.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County.
NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila
Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Southern Dona
Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner