Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
645 FXUS64 KEPZ 272311 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 511 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 507 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - Storm coverage will be isolated in the lowlands and scattered in the mountains through Thursday. - Moisture and thunderstorm coverage will ramp up Friday and through the weekend with a higher threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Sunday and Monday look to be the wettest days. - Temperatures remain near or just above normal through Friday, then fall below normal as rain chances increase. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 After the passage of last night`s shortwave and the broadening of the upper high from the east, more subsident flow will limit storm coverage this afternoon. Widely isolated (10-20% chance) showers and storms are expected during the afternoon across the lowlands with more scattered convection in the mountains. PWs fall to near normal later today from the 1.28" on this morning`s 12z sounding. Most areas should stay dry today due to the building ridge with SW winds of 5-10 mph. Thursday`s weather looks similar as the upper high sits overhead. Moisture levels and instability creep up from the south during the day, allowing for slightly better storm chances. Gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible. Starting Friday, moisture levels and storm chances will increase as a shortwave trough/backdoor front pushes through the Plains, weakening the high pressure aloft. Other than the forecast QPF trending down slightly for Sun-Tue, the models haven`t changed much in their prognosis for the weather pattern early next week. Once the front reaches the Southern High Plains Fri/Sat, the boundary and its associated moisture don`t really have anywhere to go, piling up from W TX to S NM. Scattered to widespread storms are expected beginning on Saturday with potential for high rain rates, slow storm motion, and a medium risk of flash flooding. The stalled/slow-moving front will result in moisture levels 30-50% above normal (PWs 1.3-1.6") Sun/Mon, which should be the wettest days of the period, especially if an embedded wave/low is nearby to provide additional lift. Areas east of the RGV are favored to see flood impacts where moisture levels are a bit higher. NBM 95th percentiles (roughly the high-end scenario) show potential for near 2" of rain each day Sat-Tue. Global ensembles remain in good agreement in this solution of the stalled front, so confidence is increasing in a medium-high risk of flooding through Tuesday. Thereafter, moisture and storm chances begin to diminish towards more typical monsoon levels. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal through the week, then falling to seasonably cool next week due to the nearby front and extensive cloud cover/storm chances. There`s a low chance high temps stay in the 70s in the lowlands Mon/Tue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period at all terminals. Very isolated SHRA/TSRA through 04Z with little chance for terminal impacts. Skies generally FEW-SCT080-120 SCT-BKN150-180 through 04Z. Overnight, limited low clouds with mid and upper clouds streaming in from the west at SCT-BKN150-180. VSBY expected to remain ABV 10SM. Wind light and variable, except with any storm outflows. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 There will be no fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Storm chances remain low through Thursday, favoring area mountains, as moisture levels hold near normal. Burn scar flooding is less of a threat today compared to yesterday due to storm motion from the southwest and lower moisture. Prevailing winds will be light this afternoon from the S/SW around 5 mph and light and variable for tomorrow. Moisture and storm chances increase starting on Friday as a frontal boundary moves in from the northeast, resulting in a higher threat of flash flooding into early next week, peaking Sun/Mon. Overnight recoveries will be good to excellent through the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the week, then below average. Min RHs will be 20-35% through Saturday, except FWZ113 which is 35-60%. Vent rates range from poor to good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 98 76 98 / 10 20 10 20 Sierra Blanca 65 91 68 93 / 20 20 10 50 Las Cruces 68 94 69 95 / 10 20 20 20 Alamogordo 69 94 70 95 / 10 20 10 40 Cloudcroft 50 71 53 71 / 10 30 10 70 Truth or Consequences 68 91 69 92 / 10 20 20 40 Silver City 61 87 63 88 / 10 30 20 50 Deming 68 96 69 97 / 10 20 20 20 Lordsburg 66 93 68 93 / 10 20 20 30 West El Paso Metro 74 95 75 96 / 10 20 10 20 Dell City 68 96 70 96 / 10 20 10 30 Fort Hancock 72 97 73 98 / 20 20 10 40 Loma Linda 66 89 68 90 / 10 20 10 30 Fabens 71 96 73 97 / 10 20 10 20 Santa Teresa 70 94 72 96 / 10 20 10 20 White Sands HQ 71 95 73 96 / 10 20 10 40 Jornada Range 68 93 70 95 / 10 20 10 40 Hatch 67 96 68 97 / 10 20 20 40 Columbus 70 96 72 97 / 10 20 20 20 Orogrande 67 93 69 94 / 10 20 10 40 Mayhill 55 81 57 80 / 10 40 10 80 Mescalero 55 82 57 83 / 10 30 10 80 Timberon 54 79 56 80 / 10 30 10 60 Winston 55 84 57 85 / 10 20 20 70 Hillsboro 63 91 65 93 / 10 20 20 50 Spaceport 65 91 68 93 / 10 20 20 40 Lake Roberts 55 86 58 88 / 10 30 20 70 Hurley 62 89 63 90 / 10 20 20 40 Cliff 63 94 65 95 / 10 20 20 40 Mule Creek 61 89 63 90 / 10 20 20 40 Faywood 64 89 65 90 / 10 20 20 50 Animas 67 93 68 93 / 10 20 20 30 Hachita 65 93 68 93 / 10 20 20 30 Antelope Wells 65 92 66 92 / 20 20 30 40 Cloverdale 63 86 63 87 / 10 30 30 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird