Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
354
FXUS64 KEPZ 150514
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1114 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The hottest temperatures of the year will continue. Highs will
range from 104 to 108 across the lowlands through Tuesday.
- Most of the area will remain dry on Sunday, but widely
scattered thunderstorms will develop over the Sacramento
Mountains in the afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms
drifting into Hudspeth County in the evening. There`s an
outside chance of a stray thunderstorm in the Gila Region or
Black Range as well.
- Dry conditions will prevail in all areas Monday through at
least Friday.
- Smoke will affect parts of Grant and Sierra counties from the
Trout and Buck Fires next few days. Smoke will be particularly
thick in the Mimbres and Sapillo Valleys.
- Critical fire weather conditions are possible as breezy west
winds develop Monday and especially Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
The Trout Fire was particularly active today with tall smoke
columns and pyrocumulus clouds noted during the afternoon.
Satellite imagery showed low level smoke spreading south towards
Silver City towards evening. Expect smoke will be particularly
thick tonight along Sapillo Creek, through Lake Roberts, and down
through the Mimbres Valley. Trapped smoke will also be noticeable
around Pinos Altos and Silver City, largely depending on
elevation.
Expect one more day with isolated to scattered thunderstorms in
Sacramento Mountains in the afternoon. Storms will attempt to
spread south along the Otero Mesa into Hudspeth County in the
evening. The NBM has shown a distinct low-PoP bias the past few
days, so PoP grids were adjusted up, leaning on good old
persistence and the HREF which has been better on its own. We have
had some impressive "virga bomb" downbursts at a few places the
past few days, and this will likely continue. Today`s event was at
Spaceport America, where a 58 mph gust was preceded by a 76
degree dewpoint depression (97 over 21). The dewpoint "spiked" to
37 after the microburst.
Can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm
developing over the Black Range Sunday afternoon/evening again,
and maybe closer to the Pinos Altos Range and the Trout Fire. Not
enough moisture for any rain though...just wind.
The subtropical ridge will be centered right over us tomorrow, as
it was today, and will stay over southern NM through Monday. Highs
will likely be within a degree or two of yesterday`s highs just
about everywhere. ELP hit 107 today. It could tick to 108 or
maybe 109 Sunday or Monday. The ridge starts to retreat south on
Monday, but westerly flow could bring downsloping, balancing out
any benefit of the ridge`s retreat.
Saggy troughing over Arizona will help boost westerly flow
slightly over western NM on Monday. The ridge completely breaks
down on Tuesday, with a shortwave trough rolling across the
Central Rockies in the afternoon. Weak lee troughing will enhance
the pressure gradient, and deep mixing could tap into 30-35 knots
at and above 700 mb. BUFKIT soundings for DMN Tuesday afternoon
suggest momentum transfer gust potential around 25 knots (30 mph).
Up in northern Grant County, in the higher terrain, gusts could be
a little higher, and winds may stay up longer into the night than
usual. Not great news given the fires.
If you look at a graph of NBM forecast Max Temperature ranges for
ELP the next 10 days, and ignore the labels, you`d be relived to
see a downward trend in temperatures through the period. But read
the labels, and you`ll see we`re unlikely to drop below 105 for a
high until Wednesday (and even then it`s close), and we`ll likely
stay around 100-102 into next weekend.
The good news? Unhindered by the departing stronger westerly flow
on Wednesday, low level moisture will start its usual diurnal
lapping into our area Wednesday night, with a stronger easterly
push possible Thursday. The subtropical ridge will reorganize
itself just south of the Four Corners. The GFS also hints at the
first inverted trough of the season rolling into northeastern
Mexico late in the week. This should start getting deeper
convection going over the central Sierra Madre Occidental, a
necessary step towards bringing the monsoon moisture northward in
time. Isolated high terrain convection may make a return Friday
over the Sacramento Mountains. Beyond that, it looks like a
battle between a digging trough over the Pacific Northwest and
the subtropical ridge takes shape by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, Light and variable
winds tonight will drift towards drainage flows by dawn. Light
south to southwest winds will prevail through Sunday.
Smoke from the Trout Fire was too high to cause ceilings or visby
restrictions at TCS this afternoon. Expect any visibility
reductions through the night will be located closer to the fire,
especially the Mimbres and Sapillo Valleys, possibly down towards
SVC.
Isolated convection Sunday over the higher terrain will not affect
any TAF sites, but we`ll need to watch for any stronger outflows
that could try to come into ELP in the evening, as convection may
be more active over Hudspeth County.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Elevated fire conditions continuing today and Sunday, with very
low humidity and fuel moisture. Slight chance of a thunderstorm
over the mountains (mainly the Sacs). With slightly lower
dewpoints, dry lightning possible with any storm. Non-thunderstorm
winds should remain less than 12 mph. Temperatures well above
normal. For Monday and Tuesday, dryness continues but afternoon
breezes will pick up both days to west/northwest 12-17 mph,
allowing fire conditions to approach critical.
By Friday/Saturday expect wind shift to the east/southeast with
humidity slowly rising. Slight chance of thunderstorms returns to
the zones by Saturday.
Min RH: Lowlands 5-12% through Thursday. Mountains 7-14% through
Thursday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 78 107 77 108 / 0 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 70 101 67 101 / 10 30 40 0
Las Cruces 69 102 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 69 102 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 56 82 56 81 / 0 10 0 10
Truth or Consequences 72 102 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 65 96 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 68 106 69 105 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 67 102 68 104 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 77 104 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 70 104 68 106 / 0 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 76 107 73 108 / 10 10 20 0
Loma Linda 70 99 70 99 / 0 10 10 0
Fabens 74 105 72 107 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 73 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 76 104 75 105 / 0 0 10 0
Jornada Range 66 102 66 104 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 67 105 67 106 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 73 106 73 106 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 70 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 59 91 60 92 / 10 30 10 10
Mescalero 61 92 60 92 / 0 10 0 10
Timberon 56 89 57 89 / 0 10 0 0
Winston 58 94 58 95 / 0 10 10 0
Hillsboro 61 102 64 102 / 0 10 0 0
Spaceport 64 102 65 103 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 47 97 49 98 / 0 10 20 0
Hurley 65 99 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 53 100 56 101 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 49 97 55 99 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 66 100 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 68 101 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 67 102 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 67 102 69 103 / 20 0 0 0
Cloverdale 69 98 67 99 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila
Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Southern Dona
Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25-Hardiman