Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
470 FXUS64 KEPZ 031229 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 629 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026 - Thunderstorms expected each afternoon through Friday with a moist and unstable atmosphere in place. - Gusty outflow winds, flooding, and even some hail possible with storms Wednesday and Thursday. - Hot next week, with above average temperatures, and likely the first 100 degree days of the year for El Paso. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 835 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Our unseasonably moist pattern will continue, and has actually continued to bolster the moisture with plenty of Monday convection over areas to our east, enhancing a flow of Gulf moisture into our region, with strong and juiced outflows of 30 to 45 mph. Surface dewpoints have jumped dramatically over our central areas behind this evenings outflow boundaries. We saw dewpoints jump almost 30F in 20 min. We will keep the area flush with deep moisture all the way to the AZ state line for tomorrow. The surface pattern is very conducive for a continued moistening, with sfc high pressure sagging south from the Great Lakes region to the Ohio River Valley, with a deep clockwise flow opening the Gulf, flowing gulf moisture across TX into NM; while intermountain west heating is creating low pressure to enhance a pull of that moisture into our area. PWATs will be well above normal, and above the 90th percentile for early June. Aloft, the pattern is one of a broad and weak trough to our west, that will likely help to make the atmosphere a bit unstable, and possibly provide some minor convection inducing shortwaves for the area. Tomorrow, looks to be stormy area wide, with more widespread negative LIs and higher CAPEs. We expect scattered to near numerous showers and thunderstorms across all portions of the CWFA. With light flow aloft, we could see some storms with slow motion, heavy rain, and potential local flooding. SPC has the El Paso area, and the lower Rio Grande valley in a Marginal Risk for hail tomorrow. The moisture stays healthy and lingers into Thursday, for another round of showers and thunderstorms, but with a bit less fuel for strong storms, and possibly a bit more of focus back to the east, central, and southern areas. For Friday, the GFS and EC models both scoot the upper trough just to our east, and with that bring in some drier air from the west. This will shift the moisture to the east, with dry air west. We expect few to no storms over western areas, with continued isolated to scattered storms central and east. We do not see a clean sweep of moisture, with a strong west push for Saturday, so we look to keep some chances for showers and storms over our eastern zones, with the rest of the area looking dry. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look like generally dry days, with a deep and mostly dry southwest flow aloft, and a weak ridge of high pressure aloft. That should mean drier and more stable conditions. However, the models do show some weak SE surface flow Monday and Tuesday, with a sliver of moisture reintroduced. This could mean some weak and isolated mountain storm potential to watch out for. All of next week looks hot, with above normal temperatures, and highs for El Paso surpassing 100 degrees for the first times this year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026 We will have an active weather day today with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Even if a thunderstorm does not directly impact an airport, the strong outflow winds likely will. The best timing for thunderstorms today will be between 4 and 10 PM. Thunderstorms could produce some brief IFR visibilities and ceilings but generally we will see VFR conditions today and tonight. Winds today will be from the southeast at around 10 mph. We could see some low end wind gusts for a few hours this afternoon. More likely what will happen is that outflow winds from thunderstorms will give us stronger wind gusts for a few hours this evening. .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 604 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026 We will see a good chance for rain today as moisture has increased across the region. Min RH`s today and Thursday will be at or above 20% across the area. Winds today through Sunday will stay below critical levels, but thunderstorms today and Thursday could create some strong and gusty outflow winds. Starting Friday drier air will slowly build into the region so that by Sunday the whole region will have dried out with min RH`s in the lower teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s in area mountains. Vent rates today and tomorrow will range from good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 90 69 89 / 60 10 30 10 Sierra Blanca 59 83 60 81 / 60 30 40 30 Las Cruces 59 87 60 88 / 70 10 10 10 Alamogordo 61 86 64 87 / 70 20 10 40 Cloudcroft 45 65 47 67 / 60 60 10 60 Truth or Consequences 62 87 63 90 / 40 20 10 10 Silver City 55 83 55 86 / 50 50 10 20 Deming 59 92 60 95 / 60 10 10 10 Lordsburg 60 90 61 93 / 40 10 20 0 West El Paso Metro 66 88 67 87 / 60 10 30 10 Dell City 59 87 61 87 / 60 30 30 30 Fort Hancock 64 91 66 89 / 50 30 50 30 Loma Linda 59 82 61 80 / 60 20 30 20 Fabens 63 91 65 89 / 60 10 40 20 Santa Teresa 61 87 63 87 / 60 10 20 10 White Sands HQ 68 88 71 88 / 70 20 10 10 Jornada Range 60 87 62 88 / 70 20 10 10 Hatch 61 90 63 92 / 60 20 10 10 Columbus 64 91 66 92 / 60 10 30 0 Orogrande 60 85 62 85 / 60 20 10 20 Mayhill 51 76 52 79 / 60 70 10 50 Mescalero 50 75 52 77 / 60 60 10 50 Timberon 47 72 49 73 / 70 60 20 50 Winston 51 80 52 84 / 40 50 10 10 Hillsboro 60 85 61 88 / 60 40 10 10 Spaceport 57 86 59 88 / 70 20 10 10 Lake Roberts 51 84 52 88 / 50 60 20 20 Hurley 55 85 55 88 / 60 50 10 20 Cliff 56 90 56 93 / 50 50 10 10 Mule Creek 54 87 54 90 / 40 50 20 10 Faywood 57 84 57 86 / 60 40 10 20 Animas 59 91 62 93 / 30 10 30 0 Hachita 59 90 61 91 / 40 20 30 0 Antelope Wells 59 90 61 90 / 20 20 20 10 Cloverdale 57 86 58 86 / 10 10 20 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice