Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
743 FXUS64 KEPZ 011127 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 527 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 - Mostly dry conditions with some breeziness Thursday through Saturday with low end chances for showers confined to the Sacramento Mtns each afternoon. - Pleasant with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s Thursday and through the weekend. These temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1107 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 The big upper low which helped bring some heavy rain to the area the last couple days is going to lift out over the TX/OK panhandles Thursday morning. Light showers like what we saw today is expected for Thursday afternoon with showers moving north to south. Some light breezes will be seen Thursday afternoon out of the northeast. A backdoor front will push in late Thursday and early Friday morning shifting winds to the east and also bringing much breezier conditions. Wind speeds look to be anywhere from 15-25 mph sustained that morning. Winds stay pretty breezy into the afternoon hours Friday as well. Some drizzle possible in the Sacramento Mtns, especially for east facing slopes. CAMs suggest more widespread showery activity across the lowlands early that morning. Saturday looks quiet with dry conditions and light winds. Heading into Sunday and early next weekend still looks uncertain. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW250. Winds will be light and variable through around 18z, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots from the northeast (020-060). Winds will subside some after dark. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 523 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 No fire weather concerns are forecast. Temperatures will run at or below normal through the period with afternoon minimum RH values around 40% in the lowlands. Winds will be breezy this afternoon and into the overnight hours, especially along west facing slopes, with speeds topping out around 15 MPH. Winds will be lighter for the weekend. Vent category rates will run fair to good this and Friday afternoon, becoming poor to fair over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 59 74 56 77 / 0 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 51 68 49 70 / 10 20 0 10 Las Cruces 54 73 52 74 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 73 51 73 / 10 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 38 49 36 55 / 30 30 20 10 Truth or Consequences 55 73 53 74 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 50 70 47 70 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 55 75 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 56 74 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 75 55 77 / 0 10 0 0 Dell City 57 70 52 73 / 10 20 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 77 56 79 / 0 20 0 10 Loma Linda 52 65 49 69 / 10 20 0 0 Fabens 59 75 55 78 / 10 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 73 54 76 / 0 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 75 55 76 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 54 75 51 75 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 55 77 53 78 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 57 76 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 72 52 73 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 44 57 43 66 / 30 40 30 10 Mescalero 43 60 41 66 / 30 30 10 10 Timberon 42 58 39 62 / 20 20 10 10 Winston 46 66 43 69 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 54 72 52 74 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 74 49 74 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 68 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 52 72 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 53 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 70 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 74 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 73 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 73 53 74 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 53 68 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown