869
FXUS64 KEPZ 291721
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1121 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will start this
  afternoon and continue off and on through Monday morning.
  Temperatures will be falling into the 80s by Sunday for the
  lowlands.

- Thunderstorms through the weekend will have the potential to
  produce locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
  in the high terrain.

- Precip chances will diminish Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

An active weather pattern for the upcoming holiday weekend as the
upper high currently over the region gets broken down by an upper
trough crossing the central/northern Rockies. This will initially
bring a weakness in the upper flow pattern across the Borderland
and then a weak back door front pushes in from the east. There`s
already plenty of moisture in place with PW`s on the 12Z EPZ
sounding showing 1.34" and this is only expected to rise through
the weekend with areas of the lowlands getting up to around 1.5"
which is well above normal for this time of the year. Initial
round of storms will be this afternoon and into the evening as
storms form off the mountains and then push SE through the area.
The far west may miss out on this round of storms. Expect these
storms to be more pop and drop with slow storm motions. This will
allow for some locally heavy rain to fall. Rain will likely linger
over far eastern areas into the overnight hours.

Going into Sat/Sun, frontal boundary will be pushing in from the
east and a more noticeable upper weakness develops and sits around
the area into Sunday. Fairly strong indication from GFS and CAMS
for some heavy rain to develop by early afternoon on the eastern
slopes of the Sacs with bullseyes of 2+" showing up. With the
recent burn areas and flooding up there, went ahead and issues a
Flood Watch. Storms will then push onto the lowlands as the front
pushes west through the evening. This sets up a nice wind profile
for heavy rain and slow storms motions combined with the upper
level feature. Models seem to be dropping QPF amounts from run to
run for Sat night through Sun night, but with 1.5" PW`s and weak
flow aloft, still have a concern for flooding. 95th Percentiles on
the NBM are in the 1-1.5" range which seems reasonable, but with
some very efficient rain producing storms given the forecast
soundings, may be looking at the potential for several inches.
Will let the next shift look at potentially expanding/extending
watch to the lowlands for this period of time.

There has been a trend among operational and ensemble members to
bring drier air into the area quicker and basically putting an end
to rain chances by midday Monday. NBM PoPs did seem high up north
and haven`t caught up to this trend, but it is looking like the
northern end of the moisture plume will linger near the Mexico
border region. Kept some chance PoPs going along the border for
Monday afternoon, but if the trend continues it could very well
remain dry for all areas making for a nice Labor Day afternoon
with highs in the 80s.

Upper ridge axis builds back into the area for Tuesday with a
generally dry day expected with highs remaining in the 80s. Some
moisture starts to move into northern areas as additional features
drop down the east side of the ridge and we bring back a chance
for at least mountain thunderstorms by Wed and continuing into the
end of the week. Temperatures during this period will be near to
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN120-150 through much of the period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms with 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060
will develop over the mountains early in the period with storms
pushing SE through the evening and all terminals have at least a
PROB30. Storms will likely linger into the early morning hours
east of the Rio Grande.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Moisture has increased across the area and widespread rain is
expected through the weekend. Locally heavy rain is possible,
especially on the eastern slopes of the Sacs Saturday. In general,
expect around a quarter of an inch of rain out west to a half to
three-quarters of an inch further east and higher amounts in the
mountains. Drier air moves in by late Monday and into midweek with
temperatures near to slightly above normal and RH`s dropping into
the 20s lowlands and 30s/40s in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  91  69  83 /  60  40  70  70
Sierra Blanca            66  88  64  80 /  60  70  70  80
Las Cruces               66  88  66  82 /  70  50  60  70
Alamogordo               66  88  64  80 /  60  60  50  70
Cloudcroft               51  64  46  57 /  70  80  60  90
Truth or Consequences    65  88  64  84 /  50  40  40  70
Silver City              61  82  61  77 /  50  50  40  80
Deming                   67  91  65  83 /  60  50  60  70
Lordsburg                67  89  66  84 /  40  30  40  60
West El Paso Metro       71  90  68  81 /  70  40  70  70
Dell City                66  89  65  80 /  50  60  60  70
Fort Hancock             69  92  69  85 /  60  60  70  80
Loma Linda               64  84  62  74 /  60  50  60  70
Fabens                   69  91  68  83 /  50  40  60  70
Santa Teresa             68  89  67  82 /  70  40  70  70
White Sands HQ           68  89  67  80 /  70  50  60  80
Jornada Range            66  88  65  82 /  70  50  60  80
Hatch                    66  90  65  82 /  60  50  60  70
Columbus                 68  90  67  82 /  60  40  60  60
Orogrande                65  87  64  78 /  60  50  50  70
Mayhill                  55  76  52  64 /  70  80  60  90
Mescalero                55  77  51  67 /  70  70  60  90
Timberon                 52  74  51  65 /  70  80  60  80
Winston                  53  81  52  79 /  50  50  40  80
Hillsboro                61  87  59  82 /  60  50  40  80
Spaceport                64  88  63  85 /  70  50  50  70
Lake Roberts             56  82  57  77 /  50  50  40  80
Hurley                   61  84  61  78 /  50  50  40  70
Cliff                    63  90  62  87 /  30  40  30  70
Mule Creek               61  85  60  84 /  20  30  20  60
Faywood                  62  84  61  77 /  60  50  50  80
Animas                   67  89  66  84 /  50  40  50  60
Hachita                  66  87  64  82 /  60  40  60  70
Antelope Wells           64  87  63  82 /  70  50  60  70
Cloverdale               61  82  62  81 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz