364
FXUS64 KEPZ 150442
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1042 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1034 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - A channel of tropical moisture remains over the region. Aloft,
   a trough to our west will keep the atmosphere unsettled. This
   should allow for another day and evening with isolated to
   scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday
   evening. However, most locations will stay dry.

 - Drier air moves in sharply from the west on Thursday. The rest
   of the week, and the weekend ahead, should be dry, with near
   zero chances for showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will
   warm back to near normal temperatures for mid-October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The pair of tropical storm systems that ejected abundantly deep
moisture into our airmass are long gone history, but we yet to be
able to scour out that moisture. In fact, several days after the
storms demise, we continue with a relatively deep and rich
moisture content. Just this evening, our weather balloon recorded
nearly 1.25" of PWAT, with is more than double mid-October
normals. We`ve been too cloudy and cool to be sharply unstable,
but with some upper level drying, we are trending toward less
cloud, more sun, warmer temperatures, and better instability. In
addition, the longwave trough to our west will continue to send
ripples of shortwave energy through the flow across our region. In
addition, we are seeing some minor low-level convergence. All
this means we will continue with POPS in the forecast for WED and
WED evening. The CAM models are again suggesting minimal daylight
activity, with a round of storms both tonight and again WED night,
tracking in on disturbances moving north out of Mexico, directly
into the Rio Grande Valley area (Skewed west tonight, and east
tomorrow night).

With the return of sunshine today, we saw more convective cloud
development this afternoon, and warmer surface temperatures, with
highs at and slightly above normal. The Borderland skies should
repeat what we saw today, with another afternoon of near seasonal
temperatures.  Winds will favor southeasterly, and stay mostly
light, with some afternoon breezes in the 10-15 mph range.  Again,
we will be watching for evening storms to fire and move in from the
south over the RGV area and eastward.

Thursday will be our "dryout" day as the upper low, embedded in
the longwave, west coast trough, lifts from Las Vegas, NE into the
Northern Rockies. This will give us an uptick in wind speeds, and
turn them from SE and S to SW, which will pull in deep layer
drier air. By the time the atmosphere warms enough to destabilize,
the moisture will be east of our area, and we will be too dry to
spark any showers or storms. Friday continues and intensifies the
drying as another low pressure wave, drops in from the NW, and
track directly over our CWA. We will see a further increase in
winds, with near windy conditions, and more veering to the west,
which will complete the drying. We will likely see a slight drop
in temperatures.

Following the Friday trough passage, high pressure aloft builds
directly over the region. The high pressure won`t have a lot of
effect on our temperatures, as it will be relatively weak and short-
lived, but we will see seasonably dry conditions with near average
temperatures.

Going into next week, the GFS and EC models part ways, but both show
low pressure systems developing upstream to our west. The GFS with a
progressive pattern, tracking lows to our north, never connecting
with any moisture, and keeping us dry, with breezy afternoons. The
EC develops a cutoff low which does scoop moisture and directs it
over our region, for rain chances TUE/WED. No confidence in either
solution this far out.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

A round of late night storms have fired over the Rio Grande
Valley, north of KLRU. With the exception of areas near this NE
tracking area of storms, VFR conditions to prevail through the
critical TAF period. KTCS and KLRU appear to have the better
chances for impacts either VCTY or direct through 7-9Z. Any
direct hits to terminals will result in lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys.
Activity is expected to move out the CWA aft 15/09Z but lingering
low clouds and valley FG will be possible, resulting in lowered
cigs/vsbys in and around sunrise. Early morning low clouds and fog
will burn off by 15Z with VFR conditions for Wednesday, with far
fewer clouds, and only slight risk of any pcpn. We could see
another late evening round of convective development over the Rio
Grande Valley and points east, similar to the TUE night storm
activity. If those materialize, we would see ISO/TEMPO MVFR and
IFR conditions most likely over KEPZ aft 03Z tomorrow evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Abundant moisture will continue to limit fire weather concerns
throughout the forecast period. Another active night will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the vicinity of the Rio Grande
Valley, some of which could become strong to severe with damaging
winds and hail. A drying trend will take hold on Wednesday,
allowing for a steady decrease in afternoon minRH. Values will dip
into the teens to 20 percent range by the weekend, with localized
instances of humidity near 15 percent in northern zones. Winds
will increase slightly towards the end of the work week, becoming
low-end breezy in the afternoon but staying well below critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  87  64  83  58 /  10  30   0  20
Sierra Blanca            82  58  82  53 /  10   0   0  10
Las Cruces               81  55  77  48 /  20  60  10  20
Alamogordo               82  60  79  50 /  30  30  10  10
Cloudcroft               63  45  58  38 /  40  20  10  10
Truth or Consequences    79  53  76  47 /  30  50   0  20
Silver City              73  46  68  42 /  20  20  10  10
Deming                   83  52  78  47 /  10  40  10  20
Lordsburg                80  49  72  46 /  10  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro       84  63  79  56 /  10  40   0  20
Dell City                84  60  84  53 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             88  64  87  58 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               78  58  75  52 /  20  10   0  10
Fabens                   87  61  83  55 /  10  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             83  59  78  51 /  10  50   0  20
White Sands HQ           82  61  79  53 /  30  50   0  20
Jornada Range            81  56  76  48 /  30  60   0  30
Hatch                    83  54  79  47 /  20  60   0  30
Columbus                 84  55  79  50 /  10  40  10  10
Orogrande                81  58  78  50 /  30  30   0  20
Mayhill                  72  50  71  45 /  40  10  10  10
Mescalero                75  49  70  42 /  40  30  10  10
Timberon                 69  47  67  42 /  40  20  10  10
Winston                  72  41  70  35 /  20  40  10  10
Hillsboro                78  48  76  45 /  20  40  10  20
Spaceport                79  53  76  45 /  30  70   0  30
Lake Roberts             74  43  69  37 /  20  30  10  10
Hurley                   76  46  71  42 /  10  20  10  10
Cliff                    80  48  74  43 /  20  10  10   0
Mule Creek               74  44  69  40 /  20  10  10   0
Faywood                  75  48  71  44 /  20  30  10  10
Animas                   81  48  75  46 /   0  10   0   0
Hachita                  81  48  75  45 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           83  49  77  47 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale               74  48  69  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird