482
FXUS64 KEPZ 110437
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1037 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

 - Drier and hot through Thursday with many lowland areas
   exceeding 100 degrees. Heat Advisory in effect for most of El
   Paso County and the lower Rio Grande Valley through Thursday
   evening.

 - Returning moisture will bring isolated showers and
   thunderstorms Friday through the weekend, with better chances
   east of the Rio Grande.

 - Triple digit heat looks to return to the lowlands for the
   middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Upper level high pressure will continue to control our weather on
Thursday and into Friday. Thursday will be dry with wide spread
100+ degree high temperatures across the lowlands. A trickle of
moisture will try to slip into the area on Friday, but the rain
chances will be limited to locations east of the Rio Grande. The
ridge aloft will be weaker but still an influence, so it will be a
challenge to get more than just a few thunderstorms going Friday
afternoon and evening.

For Saturday through Monday, the upper level ridge will drop to
our southwest and that will allow a little more moisture to get
into the area. It won`t be a lot of moisture, especially on
Saturday so rain showers and thunderstorms will struggle. High
temperatures those days will be near seasonal averages, which will
keep most lowland locations just shy of the triple digit mark. It
looks like the extended models build the upper level ridge back
into New Mexico for the middle of next week. This ridge position
will dry us out and heat us back up with temperatures once again
above 100 across much of the lowlands.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. We will have
generally light winds tonight, with the one exception being KELP
where we could still see a weak outflow boundary swing the winds
around to the southeast for a couple of hours. Like today, we will
see another round of low end gusty winds across the region for
Thursday afternoon. Our ceilings will remain unlimited for
tonight and through most of the day on Thursday. Some high clouds
will build up out of Mexico early tomorrow evening, potentially
giving us some high ceilings of BKN250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 935 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

We are in a deep westerly flow pattern, which means the region
will stay warm and generally dry today and tomorrow. For the
weekend, low-level easterlies will reintroduce moisture to the
area, bringing back the chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day.

Temperatures will run up to 7 degrees above normal for the
lowlands today and tomorrow due to the upper-level ridge
stretching from Arizona to the Gulf Coast. Dry winds will prevail
from the west today and tomorrow for the CWA, lowering relative
humidity percentages for the lowlands down to the lower
teens/upper single digits. Recovery RHs will improve through the
weekend. Winds will be moderate, between 10-20 mph, during the
afternoons, especially in the mountains, while the nights will be
lighter and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78 104  78 100 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca            69 100  69  94 /   0   0   0  40
Las Cruces               68 101  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               72 100  72  98 /   0   0   0  30
Cloudcroft               54  81  55  76 /   0   0   0  50
Truth or Consequences    69 100  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              61  95  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   70 105  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                66  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       75 102  75  98 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City                69 103  69  96 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Hancock             75 105  75 101 /   0   0   0  40
Loma Linda               70  96  71  91 /   0   0   0  30
Fabens                   73 105  73 101 /   0   0   0  40
Santa Teresa             71 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           78 101  79  98 /   0   0   0  30
Jornada Range            69 100  70  97 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                    68 104  70 101 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 75 103  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                69  99  69  96 /   0   0   0  30
Mayhill                  61  93  60  84 /   0   0  10  60
Mescalero                58  91  58  86 /   0   0   0  60
Timberon                 57  87  57  82 /   0   0   0  40
Winston                  59  94  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                68  98  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                64  99  66  97 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             56  96  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   63  97  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    60 100  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               57  96  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  97  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   66  98  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  67  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           68  97  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               64  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice