Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
878 FXUS64 KEPZ 120431 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1031 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening, favoring southwest New Mexico. - Moisture and rain chances increase beginning tomorrow, posing a low risk of flash flooding area wide. Highest flood threat looks to be on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 A pattern shift is underway. The Four Corners high has weakened with a new center over TX. This is turning flow from east to west to south to north. Moistening is underway as well, and we saw an increase in thunderstorm coverage as a result though it had resulted in a lot of dust thanks to high temperature - dewpoint spreads. We will remain in this southerly flow through early next week, which will give us daily shower and thunderstorm chances. With PW values ranging between 1.25-1.5", heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main concern. These rainfall chances will especially be enhanced with the passage of any short-wave troughs. The GFS and Euro continue to show a notable trough/low passing through the area Saturday into Sunday. With the increased moisture, highs will be closer to normal. We will see at least a break from the 100 degree temperatures. The forecast for next week is a bit uncertain. The GFS and Euro show the high pushing back to the west though there has been poor run-to-run consistency how far west it shifts and how much dry air shifts in with it. A look at the LREF though does show a distinct downward turn in moisture. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Thunderstorm outflows will continue to make for a tricky wind forecast for all terminal sites through 9z, especially at DMN, but winds should be come light and variable overnight. Winds will increase again during the afternoon tomorrow, topping out around 10 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots from the south or southwest. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening, but confidence on timing and occurrence is too low to include mention of thunder in this TAF cycle. Otherwise, expect variable skies with bases as low as 100, lower in TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1011 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Mostly dry for today with a low chance of showers/storms, focusing out west. Slight chance of showers/storms in the lowlands this afternoon. Storm chances and moisture trend upward beginning Wed, lasting for the rest of the week with generally scattered storm coverage. There is a low threat of flash flooding for much of the region later in the week, but favoring western areas. Gusty and erratic outflow winds and frequent lightning are possible as well. Otherwise, winds will be light from the E-SE through the week. Temperatures stay warm today, then cooling to near normal due to increased cloud cover/rain chances. Min RHs range from 15-35% today, rising to 25-50% by Thu. Vent rates will be fair to very good through Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 97 72 95 / 10 10 30 0 Sierra Blanca 68 94 67 91 / 10 10 20 10 Las Cruces 69 95 67 93 / 10 10 20 0 Alamogordo 71 97 69 94 / 0 10 20 0 Cloudcroft 55 74 52 72 / 10 20 10 0 Truth or Consequences 71 95 69 93 / 20 30 20 20 Silver City 61 86 60 83 / 20 40 40 30 Deming 68 95 66 92 / 20 20 20 0 Lordsburg 67 90 65 87 / 40 30 50 20 West El Paso Metro 75 96 73 94 / 10 10 30 0 Dell City 72 98 71 97 / 0 0 20 0 Fort Hancock 75 100 74 98 / 10 10 30 0 Loma Linda 68 90 66 88 / 10 10 20 0 Fabens 73 97 72 96 / 10 10 30 0 Santa Teresa 72 95 70 93 / 10 10 30 0 White Sands HQ 73 96 71 94 / 10 20 20 0 Jornada Range 70 96 67 93 / 10 20 30 0 Hatch 70 99 68 97 / 20 20 20 10 Columbus 72 94 71 93 / 20 20 20 0 Orogrande 69 94 67 93 / 0 10 10 0 Mayhill 60 86 58 85 / 0 30 10 10 Mescalero 59 85 57 82 / 10 20 10 10 Timberon 56 83 54 81 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 60 87 57 84 / 20 70 30 60 Hillsboro 66 94 63 91 / 20 40 20 30 Spaceport 68 96 66 93 / 20 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 56 86 55 83 / 20 50 40 50 Hurley 63 89 61 87 / 20 30 30 30 Cliff 64 92 64 89 / 20 40 40 40 Mule Creek 61 87 61 84 / 30 40 50 50 Faywood 65 90 63 87 / 20 40 30 30 Animas 67 88 65 87 / 50 60 40 30 Hachita 67 90 65 88 / 40 30 30 10 Antelope Wells 66 87 65 87 / 50 50 20 20 Cloverdale 61 81 61 81 / 60 50 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown