Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
614 FXUS64 KEPZ 241220 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 520 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 508 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Dry weather, with few clouds, near seasonal temperatures, and generally light winds today through the entire work week, including Thanksgiving day. - We will see a cooling trend for Friday through Sunday. - The next storm system looks to arrive Sunday, with a chance for precipitation Sunday night west of the Rio Grande. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 859 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 The upper level trough that brought us wind and precipitation to the region last night and this morning is quickly moving off to our northeast. In its wake we will see a dry northwest flow aloft develop across the region. This pattern will keep us dry with a slow warming trend. By Tuesday and Wednesday we will see high temperatures a few degrees above average. Then for Thanksgiving day and Friday, we will see an upper level ridge move across the state of New Mexico. This ridge will keep us dry and allow high temperatures to run 5 to 10 degrees above average. For Friday and into next weekend, the upper level ridge will slide eastward and our upper level flow will turn more toward the southwest as an upper level trough begins to get organized just off the West Coast. We will see a slow cooling trend as we move through next weekend so that by next Sunday our high temperatures will be at or a little below average. Looking just beyond the forecast, the extended models indicate that the West Coast trough will move to the east and have the potential to bring some lowland rain and mountain snow showers to the area for the start of December. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 VFR conditions across the entire region through the entire forecast period. No cigs, no vsby restrictions, light winds from the west and northwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 508 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 A week of fair, benign, dry, and mild conditions as we sit under a deep NW flow pattern to start the week, that will transition to a broad riding patter aloft over the region. Temperatures will creep upward, and rise to 3-5 degrees above daily averages for much of the week. Skies will generally be mostly clear, with periods of passing high clouds (especially later in the week). RH will be good and better for overnight recoveries, and trim down into the 20-25 percent range in the afternoons (especially across the lowlands. Winds will favor light, with occasional afternoon breezes. Expect mostly SW to W winds, with a period of E and NE winds Wednesday night into Thursday, with a minor frontal passage. No chances for any precipitation through this upcoming Saturday. The next storm system looks to dive S across the intermountain western U.S. and arrive over our area late Sunday. We will see rain/snow potential then. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 40 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 35 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 64 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 64 32 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 22 45 28 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 62 35 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 61 34 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 34 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 41 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 67 32 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 70 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 36 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 67 38 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 35 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 40 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 65 30 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 67 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 33 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 25 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 25 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 23 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 59 26 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 63 35 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 62 28 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 62 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 62 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 66 30 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 63 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 61 35 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 33 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 32 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 38 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird