364
FXUS64 KEPZ 171127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
527 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Breezy to windy conditions expected on Tuesday as an upper
    level disturbance moves through the Central Rockies. This will
    lead to Critical Fire Weather Conditions across most of
    southern New Mexico.

 -  Temperatures will finally begin to retreat on Tuesday, though
    only by a few degrees. Heat Advisories remain in effect for El
    Paso and the Lower Valley Tuesday, then retreating to just the
    Lower Valley on Wednesday.

 -  Dry conditions will prevail this week. Rain chances will begin
    to increase next weekend as an early monsoon moisture plume
    tries to set up. Areas near and east of the Rio Grande appear
    to be most favored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

An upper level trough over Nevada will move across the Central
Rockies on Tuesday, bringing breezy to windy westerly winds to the
region. The west winds will scour out any low level moisture over
West Texas by late morning, and minimum RH values look to drop to
5 to 6 percent across the lowlands by afternoon, and 5 to 8
percent even in the highest elevations. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph
will be possible, with the odd 40 mph gust possible east of the
San Andres and Organ Mountains.

Obviously, fire weather is a main concern especially with the
Trout Fire still active in the Pinos Altos range above the Mimbres
and Sapillo Creek valleys.

Smoke will continue to be a concern, mainly around the
aforementioned valleys, but patchy smoke could work into Silver
City as well by morning. With the increasing winds and high
instability, expect very active fire behavior tomorrow, and a
smoke plume that could even make it to the Sacramento Mountains.
It will likely be elevated over most areas, but it will be
interesting to see if any reaches the ground over the highest
terrain of the Sacs.

Temperatures Wednesday will drop into the 100-103 range for most
of the lowlands, but 105+ for the Lower Valley below about Fabens.
Heat Advisory has been extended down there for an extra day.

A strong easterly push will bring low level moisture back into the
area, Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 850 mb winds look to
crank up to 30 knots after midnight, which could cause gusts 35
to 45 mph along the west slopes of the Franklins. The low level
easterly flow will maintain itself through the day Thursday,
rather than mixing out with westerlies. We`ll get an additional
push Thursday night, with similar low level winds, so another
gusty night is likely west of the Franklins.

Unfortunately the subtropical ridge position and an inverted
trough well to our south will pull mid-level dry air into the
region during this period, reducing instability, and keeping
precip chances low until Saturday.

For the weekend, a digging trough over the Pacific Northwest and
Great Basin will push the subtropical ridge over the Southeastern
US. Flow between the two features will bring an early monsoon
moisture plume up into the region. If this were later into the
summer, it`d be a better setup, as the Sierra Madres would be far
greener and moister. So the plume may be a little anemic, and
looks to favor areas east of the Divide and especially near and
east of the Rio Grande heading into Sunday and Monday, while
Arizona and SW New Mexico stay under the influence of the western
trough. The GFS even suggests Sunday could see lee troughing east
of the Continental Divide, with low level convergence increasing
the precip threat near and east of the Rio Grande in New Mexico.
But, this is a long ways off.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250. Winds will
increase this afternoon from the west to southwest (260-280) with
speeds topping out around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 or 35
knots. KELP will be close to AWW criteria but will hold off on
issuing one. With the breezy winds, BLDU cannot be ruled out with
a low risk for category reductions from VIS. Winds will gradually
subside after dark.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
this afternoon. Highs will climb above 100 in most lowland
locations while min RH values drop well into the single-digits.
Winds will increase this afternoon, topping out around 15 to 20
MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH. Although winds are marginal, given
fuel conditions, very low RH values, and ongoing fires, a Red Flag
Warning is in effect for the New Mexico lowlands and Gila NF
through 8PM. Venting will be excellent. Smoke transport will be
toward the east.

Wednesday will remain very dry though moisture will try to push in
from the east, reaching toward the Rio Grande Valley, helping with
overnight recoveries. Winds will be light. Going into Thursday and
the rest of the weekend, we will continue an upward trend with
moisture. Thunderstorm chances return by Friday though mainly in
the mountains initially.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 107  76 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           101  68 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              102  68 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              103  66 102  68 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               81  53  76  52 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences   103  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              94  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  104  66 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               101  64 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      104  76 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               105  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            107  71 105  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               99  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  105  71 105  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            103  71 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          103  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           102  65 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   104  65 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                104  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               103  68  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  91  56  85  55 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero                92  56  88  56 /   0   0  10   0
Timberon                 88  55  85  53 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  93  56  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               101  66  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               103  63 101  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             95  55  97  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   97  62 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    99  60 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               95  59  99  58 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  97  65  97  66 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  100  66 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 100  65 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          101  66 102  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               96  66  97  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Rio Grande Valley of
     Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley
     of Eastern Hudspeth County.

     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown