Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
881 FXUS64 KEPZ 021735 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 - A warming trend through early next week will warm temperatures from 3 to 5 degrees below normal to 3 to 5 degrees above normal. - Besides a few showers in the Sacs from time to time, dry conditions will prevail into the middle of next week. - Winds die off this evening but will become breezy again Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Upper low that was over KS yesterday has now dissipated and an elongated trough currently extends through the TX Panhandle into the Borderland. Models indicate a weak circulation will develop over the next 12 hours around Hudspeth County. This all has brought a back door cold front through the area along with some low/mid clouds and some light showers over the Sacs. Actually had over 0.25" of rain on the eastern slopes this morning, but the deep upslope flow will be weakening this afternoon and only expect very light rain showers or just some drizzle and low clouds into the evening. Otherwise some slightly drier air filters in tonight and besides the far eastern zones, think most areas will become clear to partly cloudy. Less clouds and decreasing winds will allow temps to fall more than last night with 50s common over the lowlands. Saturday looks very nice with the lighter winds continuing and just some CU developing for the afternoon. Moisture much less than today overall and don`t even expect sprinkles. Temperatures will warm up compared to today but remain a little below normal. mid to upper 70s will be common for the lowlands with lots of 60s in area mountains. An upper high becomes established over the Four Corners area Sunday with even fewer clouds with temperatures warming another 3-5 degrees. Warming trend continues into early next week even as upper high shifts westward. A couple of weak troughs move through Mon and Wed. Models have trended weaker, especially Monday, with these features and besides a mountain shower it looks dry for the area with temps getting to about 3-5 deg above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 SCT-BKN050-070 through the afternoon but clouds will dissipate after sunset at all terminals by 06Z to SKC-FEW060-080. Areas of eastern Hudspeth and north into the eastern Sacramento Mountains will keep a low overcast through the night and start to dissipate after 12Z. An isolated shower near and east of the RGV is possible this afternoon but not worth even a VCSH since coverage will be so low. Winds will start out gusty out of the east to northeast at 10-20G30KTS, strongest at KDMN and KTCS, before decreasing to AOB 12KTS by 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 A gradual warming trend is coming for the next 5 days with highs starting out about 3-5 degrees below normal and by the middle of next week ending up about 3-5 degrees above normal. RH`s will be above 30% through Tuesday with some 20s possible by Wednesday. Gusty winds this afternoon will die down for Saturday then another slight increase for Sun/Mon but still below 20KTS. Besides a few showers in the Sacs into this evening and some isolated showers Mon/Wed next week up there as well, dry conditions will prevail. Vent rates will be poor to fair Sat and improve to fair to good for Sun. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 56 77 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 51 71 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 52 75 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 71 55 76 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 56 42 56 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 71 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 70 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 75 57 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 76 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 55 73 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 79 58 79 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 51 70 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 79 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 75 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 74 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 52 74 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 76 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 65 49 66 / 30 10 0 0 Mescalero 44 66 47 68 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 42 62 45 64 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 44 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 70 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 71 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 74 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 72 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 49 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 72 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 74 57 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 74 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 73 56 74 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 52 70 55 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz