Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
107 FXUS64 KEPZ 032335 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 535 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 532 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Isolated thunderstorm chances generally confined to the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains today, with increasing chances in the New Mexico Bootheel later Thursday. - Rainfall chances will increase Friday into Saturday as tropical moisture flows into the area. There is a chance for localized heavy rainfall in Southwestern New Mexico Friday night, depending on the track of the remnants of Hurricane Lorena. - Cooler temperatures this weekend, especially Saturday with expected cloud cover. - Drier conditions look to prevail Sunday into the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The most critical part of the forecast over the next few days revolves around Hurricane Lorena and its eventual track. But in the near-term, expect a fairly quiet/dry day with just isolated, small pop-up showers and perhaps a thunderstorm over the Sacramento Mountains and the Black Range before sunset. Dewpoints across the area have fallen into the 40s and a few spots are holding on to lower 50s. But deeper moisture exists to our southwest, with widespread 70s dewpoints across the Sierra Madre per Sonora REMAS mesonet obs. Some of this low level moisture will begin sneaking back into SW New Mexico Thursday afternoon as broad low level SW flow develops. We actually get weak lee side low development Thursday afternoon in SE Colorado and the Texas Panhandle as NW flow develops over the northern and central Rockies. This will boost thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon/evening, especially over the NM Bootheel. Moisture from Lorena begins to impact the area on Friday, with the main focus for heavy rain potential being Friday night into Saturday. Unfortunately, forecast guidance is becoming bimodal, with ensemble members starting to focus on two very different solutions. The 12Z deterministic ECMWF, and the 12Z ECMWF ensembles continue to stall Lorena`s surface circulation off the Baja Spur. The bulk of its upper level moisture then shears off to east into Sonora, but with a sharp QPF gradient on its north end mostly keeping the heavier rain potential south of the international border. The 12Z deterministic GFS now closely matches some of the "wetter" solutions seen in the 06Z GFS Ensembles. It brings the surface circulation into Baja Sur, south of the "spur", with a second, Sonoran landfall near Bahia Kino Friday morning. It then tracks a weakening, but still-closed surface low into SE Arizona Friday evening. This is significant because with the stronger circulation, the upper level dynamics are more enhanced, with south winds in the 700-500 mb layer around 40 to 50 knots, transporting deeper moisture into SW New Mexico Friday evening, and the Gila later Friday night, with additional orographic enhancement. Low level convergence also develops in the 850-700 mb layer, focused over the Gila Friday night, and shifting to Sierra County Saturday morning. Unfortunately, 12Z GFS Ensemble data is just now coming in, after the forecast deadline, but reveals there is still a wide range of solutions. For example, it appears only 5 members out of 50 have total QPF greater than 1 inch at LSB by 12Z Saturday, and 6 members at SVC. More statistical salad... Total QPF through 12Z Saturday SVC: 10th Percentile: 0.01 inches, 50th: 0.18 inches, 90th: 1.67 inches. Similar values for DMN. 90th Percentile pushes 2.50" in the southern Bootheel, where the 50th is around 1 inch. For ELP, the 10th Percentile is 0, 50th around 0.25 inches, 90th around 0.80 inches. At this point, we can say with fairly good confidence that SW New Mexico will see accumulating rainfall late Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning. The highest risk for rainfall amounts of 1 inch or greater, and possibly localized flooding concerns with heavier pockets, will be in the Gila down towards the Bootheel. The risk for excessive rainfall at Las Cruces and El Paso is diminishing. For the Sacramento Mountains, there`s still uncertainty, but overall QPF values look to be on the lighter side, and ironically might have a higher risk of heavy rain on Saturday if Lorena`s remnants stay mostly to our south (i.e., the ECMWF), as less cloud cover will allow for more destabilization and more typical orographic thunderstorms. Once Lorena is out of the picture, we look to dry out Sunday. A weak backdoor cold front will push some low level moisture back in from the east to start next week, but the upper level are looking dry and warm, with westerly flow prevailing. This will limit precip chances to the higher terrain. The subtropical ridge looks to regroup east of us later in the week, with a somewhat anemic looking monsoonal moisture plume developing, but it may end up focused west of the Continental Divide unless a trough digging into California can shift it eastwards. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 VFR conditions expected throughout the period with BKN-OVC250 though ceilings will likely begin to lower late in the period. Winds will mainly be light, favoring the SW (200-220) by tomorrow afternoon. There is a low chance (10-20%) for SHRA/TSRA to affect DMN and TCS between 18-00z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Just very slight chances for a shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain in the Gila and Sacramentos through this evening. Some low level moisture will begin working into SW New Mexico on Thursday, with scattered thunderstorms in the Bootheel region. We will see increasing moisture and rain chances Friday and Saturday, with some potential for localized heavy rainfall possible in Southwestern New Mexico late Friday into early Saturday depending on the track of the remnants of Hurricane Lorena. Unfortunately, its path remains uncertain, but the best chances for heavy rainfall amounts will be over the Gila Region and down to the Bootheel. Drier conditions look to return Sunday, and monsoonal moisture will struggle to redevelop west of the Divide later next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 92 70 81 / 0 10 30 30 Sierra Blanca 62 88 64 76 / 0 10 10 30 Las Cruces 66 89 63 77 / 0 20 20 30 Alamogordo 66 91 65 79 / 0 10 10 30 Cloudcroft 50 68 47 57 / 20 20 10 40 Truth or Consequences 65 89 64 78 / 0 10 20 30 Silver City 60 82 57 72 / 0 20 20 50 Deming 65 90 64 79 / 0 20 30 40 Lordsburg 66 85 63 76 / 0 20 40 50 West El Paso Metro 73 89 68 77 / 0 10 30 30 Dell City 63 92 66 80 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 68 93 70 80 / 0 10 20 30 Loma Linda 65 84 62 71 / 0 10 20 30 Fabens 67 91 68 77 / 0 10 20 30 Santa Teresa 68 88 66 75 / 0 10 30 30 White Sands HQ 70 91 66 77 / 0 10 20 30 Jornada Range 66 89 64 77 / 0 10 20 30 Hatch 65 91 65 80 / 0 10 20 40 Columbus 67 88 66 77 / 0 20 30 40 Orogrande 65 89 63 77 / 0 10 20 30 Mayhill 56 80 55 69 / 20 20 10 40 Mescalero 55 80 53 69 / 20 20 10 40 Timberon 53 78 51 66 / 20 10 10 40 Winston 54 82 53 72 / 10 20 20 50 Hillsboro 62 89 60 77 / 0 20 20 40 Spaceport 63 89 62 77 / 0 10 20 30 Lake Roberts 55 83 53 74 / 10 30 20 60 Hurley 60 83 58 74 / 0 20 30 50 Cliff 63 88 60 79 / 0 20 20 50 Mule Creek 60 83 57 74 / 10 20 20 50 Faywood 63 84 59 72 / 10 20 30 50 Animas 66 84 63 75 / 10 30 40 60 Hachita 64 84 63 74 / 10 30 40 50 Antelope Wells 63 82 61 72 / 10 40 40 60 Cloverdale 62 76 59 69 / 10 50 40 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown