Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
292 FXUS64 KEPZ 250419 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 919 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 855 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Dry weather, with few clouds, near seasonal temperatures, and generally light winds today through the entire work week, including Thanksgiving day. - We will see a cooling trend starting this weekend. - The next storm system looks to arrive Sunday, with a chance for precipitation Sunday night west of the Rio Grande. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 855 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 We will have a quiet weather pattern through Friday, but then we will have more active weather this weekend into the start of next week. Currently we have an upper level trough over western Missouri and an upper level ridge just off the coast of California. This will give us a dry northwest flow aloft for the next couple of days. This pattern will keep our precipitation chances near zero, but it won`t allow for any quick warm ups. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will run just a few degrees above average. Then for Thursday and Friday an upper level ridge will move across New Mexico. The ridge will continue our dry weather, but it will allow for high temperatures to jump 5 to 10 degrees above average. As we head into the weekend, we will begin to see a pattern change as a series of upper level short waves and deeper troughs move in our direction. Initially a pair of short wave troughs, one on Saturday and one on Sunday will dash across the region, having little impact on our weather. By Sunday evening though, a much deeper upper level trough will be getting organized somewhere near southern California. There is are still some significant strength and timing differences between the deterministic GFS and ECMWF. For now there is a chance (20 to 40%) of lowland rain and mountain snow showers in the forecast starting late Sunday night (west of the Rio Grande) and continuing through Tuesday. Still way to early to start talking about precipitation totals. It will be interesting to see how this weather pattern evolves as we go through the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 855 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 Our quiet weather will continue tonight and through the day on Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable overnight through Tuesday evening. We will continue to have unlimited ceilings through tomorrow evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1005 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 There are minimal to no fire concerns for the next seven days. Each day will feature mostly clear skies. Temperatures will start off seasonal but will warm to a few degrees above seasonal by this weekend. Mornings will be chilly with moderate to strong recoveries. Afternoon RH minimums will only drop to the mid to upper 20s while winds stay light. Venting will range poor to fair, improving to fair to good by this weekend thanks to some increase in winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 34 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 64 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 64 32 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 23 44 28 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 62 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 61 34 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 66 34 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 62 34 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 68 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 70 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 37 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 67 37 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 41 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 64 31 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 66 31 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 34 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 60 25 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 25 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 24 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 59 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 63 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 62 29 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 62 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 62 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 66 31 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 64 30 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 61 36 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 33 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 32 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 33 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 61 38 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice