Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
022 FXUS64 KEPZ 060426 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1026 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1022 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, favoring local mountains and western New Mexico. Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and localized flooding. Rain chances will continue week. - Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 An upper high will center itself over the TX/OK panhandle Sunday afternoon, then shifts slightly eastward to the Red River area Monday. CAMs suggest much of the storm activity tomorrow to be over the area mountains with more scattered activity in the lowlands. Moisture will still be well above average Sunday with modeled PWs upwards of around 1.4". Monday through Wednesday storm chances look to focus over the area mountains and locations west of the Rio Grande. PWs continue to stay above average at around 1.1"-1.3" depending on day and location, but either way - moderate to heavy rain will continue to be possible with thunderstorms which could lead to flooding. Not expecting any crazy flooding threat days at this time. By later in the week, high pressure rapidly dissolves to our east and redevelops over SoCal. Long range models seem uncertain as to if high pressure will stay in this general area or if the high will be dissolved by an upper trough swinging through to our north. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Much of the showers and storms have fizzled away tonight. Expecting a quiet night with light and variable breezes lasting through the morning hours. Thunderstorms start popping up around mid-day with scattered lowland storms popping up mid-afternoon lasting through the afternoon and early evening hours. Gusty outflow winds and moderate to heavy rainfall possible near thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1022 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Fire weather concerns will be low through the middle of next week. For today, scattered storms are forecast for the Lincoln Nat`l Forest with isolated flash flooding this afternoon due to slow storm motion and high rain rates. More isolated activity is expected elsewhere, favoring eastern lowlands. Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 30 mph are possible. Prevailing light and variable winds expected. From Sun onward, storm chances and heavy rainfall favor western areas with more isolated coverage elsewhere. Moisture levels remain above normal for early Sep. Winds stay light, shifting more E-SE this weekend. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal next week. Min RHs range from 25-35% in the lowlands, 35-60% in the mtns. Vent rates will be poor to good today, then mostly fair to good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 97 74 96 / 20 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 65 92 64 91 / 30 20 0 10 Las Cruces 68 95 69 94 / 20 10 10 10 Alamogordo 69 94 66 93 / 30 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 51 71 48 69 / 30 50 10 20 Truth or Consequences 71 94 70 92 / 10 30 40 20 Silver City 63 88 63 86 / 10 40 50 30 Deming 68 97 69 95 / 10 10 20 20 Lordsburg 69 95 69 93 / 10 30 40 30 West El Paso Metro 76 97 76 95 / 30 10 10 10 Dell City 70 96 68 95 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 100 72 98 / 30 20 0 10 Loma Linda 68 90 67 89 / 40 20 0 0 Fabens 72 98 72 97 / 30 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 95 71 94 / 20 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 73 95 73 94 / 30 20 10 10 Jornada Range 69 95 68 93 / 20 10 10 10 Hatch 70 98 69 96 / 20 20 20 10 Columbus 72 97 72 95 / 10 10 10 20 Orogrande 68 94 67 93 / 30 20 10 0 Mayhill 57 83 54 82 / 30 30 10 20 Mescalero 55 82 53 81 / 20 50 10 20 Timberon 55 81 52 80 / 40 30 10 20 Winston 60 85 59 83 / 20 40 50 50 Hillsboro 68 92 68 91 / 20 30 40 30 Spaceport 68 95 67 93 / 20 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 57 87 57 86 / 20 50 50 50 Hurley 64 91 64 89 / 20 30 40 30 Cliff 66 96 66 94 / 10 30 40 40 Mule Creek 63 92 64 90 / 10 20 30 40 Faywood 66 90 66 88 / 20 30 30 20 Animas 68 95 69 94 / 10 30 30 30 Hachita 68 94 68 93 / 10 30 30 20 Antelope Wells 66 93 67 92 / 10 20 20 20 Cloverdale 63 88 64 87 / 10 30 20 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher