135
FXUS64 KEPZ 031131
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
531 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

We will have, quiet and very warm weather the next couple of
days, then on Wednesday the heat kicks things up a notch. High
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will run 5 to 10 degrees
above average. High temperatures on Thursday in the Rio Grande
Valley will be 105 or greater. For Friday and into the weekend,
our high temperatures will come down a little and we will have a
slight chance for rain each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The dry and very warm zonal (west to east) flow continues today
with high temperatures near the century mark across the lowlands.
Our skies will be mostly clear, with only some high clouds from
time to time and our winds will be a little breezy in the
afternoon. Tuesdsay`s weather will be similar to todays, but maybe
a degree or two warmer.

On Wednesday, an upper level ridge will begin to build across the
southwest U.S. and this ridge will begin to turn the heat on. High
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will run 5 to 10 degrees
above average. This will push high temperature to near or a little
above 105 degrees for portions of the Rio Grande Valley from Las
Cruces through El Paso and down south into Hudspeth County. A heat
advisory is now in effect for those locations for Wednesday
through Thursday evening. The upper level ridge will be centered
almost directly over El Paso on Thursday. There is a good chance
(40 to 60%) that El Paso and locations in the Rio Grande valley
southeast of El Paso will see high temperatures on Thursday of 105
or greater.

With the upper level ridge aloft, it will cut-off the westerly
flow and allow a little moisture to trickle into the region. With
the hot high temperatures, we may be able to squeeze a few
isolated thunderstorms each afternoon for Thursday through
Saturday. Probabilistic model outputs, while still keeping some
low end rain chances in the forecast, have started to trend
afternoon high temperatures a few degrees higher for Friday and
Saturday. The 75th percentile (25% chance of occurrence) has a
high temperature of 105 on Friday and 104 on Saturday for El Paso.
I have trended the high temperatures a little higher for Friday
and Saturday, but not quiet to those 75th percentile values. The
extended models seem to be trending to keep the strong upper level
ridge centered over southern New Mexico right into the middle of
June, which could lead to an extended period of very hot
temperatures for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. For the last
several afternoons we have had some low end gusty winds and today
will be no exception. By late this morning and into the early
evening we will have occasionally breezy and low end gusty winds
from the southwest. The wind gusts will drop off around sunset and
we will have lighter west winds through the overnight hours of
Monday into Tuesday morning. Our ceilings will be unlimited today
and tonight. We currently have high clouds giving KELP some high
ceilings, but those high clouds will push off to the east later
today. As a heads up, we will see warmer and warmer temperatures
as we head into the week, with high temperatures well above
average for Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

We will have elevated fire weather conditions today, with rock
bottom min RH`s and breezy afternoon winds. ERC`s values across
much of the area today and tomorrow will be greater than 90%. But
the good news is that we will see a slow increase in moisture so
that by Wednesday and Thursday, min RH`s will be near 10% in the
lowlands and 10 to 20% in area mountains. We will see a slight
chance for rain in the Sacramento Mountains on Wednesday and
across the whole area on Thursday and Friday. Min RH`s this
weekend will range from 10 to 15% in the lowlands to 15 to 30% in
area mountains. Heat will also be an issue this week, especially
in the lowlands on Wednesday and Thursday, with high temperatures
both days well above 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  72 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            92  64  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               97  64  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               94  60  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               71  50  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    95  66  97  69 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              85  58  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   95  59  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                93  59  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       95  67  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                97  60 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             99  62 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               89  63  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   98  66 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             94  63  97  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           95  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            94  59  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    97  59  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 95  65  97  69 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                94  61  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  85  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                82  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 81  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  87  56  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                92  62  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                94  56  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             86  54  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   89  55  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    93  56  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               87  59  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  89  59  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   93  57  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  93  59  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           92  59  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               87  58  88  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice