Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
127
FXUS64 KEPZ 161749
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1149 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hottest temperatures of the year so far through Tuesday.
Lowland highs 102 to 108 degrees.
- Dry conditions prevailing this week, with rain chances
increasing next weekend.
- Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday afternoon
as breezy west winds develop with very dry and hot weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Very hot conditions continue into Tuesday as the upper high gets
squished to the south by an incoming upper trough moving into the
Great Basin. Dry westerly flow aloft will develop on the north
side of the ridge, nudging any lingering surface moisture to the
east. Dew points drop to the 20s nearly everywhere during the
afternoon with the exception of far eastern areas where there is
again a very slight chance (10-20%) of isolated gusty
showers/storms. Gusty outflows may again pick up dust in Hudspeth
county this afternoon, but not as significant as we saw yesterday
evening. Winds begin to increase as lee troughing develops along
the Front Range with a 995mb-ish surface low in SE Colorado.
The upper high is pushed further south on Tuesday as the impulse
enters the Central High Plains and creates a stronger lee- side
low. 850mb winds increase to 20-25kts over much of the region,
making for a breezy, dry, and very hot day. The Heat Advisory has
been cut back for much of the lowlands for Tuesday as the trough
swings through and lowers the 500mb heights in southern NM. Only
portions of far west TX remain in the Heat Advisory for Tuesday,
but low 100s can still be expected for southern NM. The dry,
westerly flow over the top of the ridge will keep rain/storm
chances near zero on Tuesday.
For the rest of the workweek, the upper high makes a return to the
Desert SW. Light winds, hot temperatures, and dry conditions
expected through Friday. We begin to see surface moisture return
by Thursday from the east due to a developing high over the
Southeast. Dew points climb to the 40s and 50s later in the week,
setting the stage for the beginnings of the monsoon. Rain/storm
chances remain limited through at least Friday as the upper high
sits overhead and keeps us capped. The end of the forecast period
gets interesting as the high shifts over the eastern US. A healthy
moisture tap from the Gulf develops by early next week with PWs
rising to around 1" or higher. Euro ensemble is more bullish on
moisture and rain chances with most members showing near 1.5" next
Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding. For now, scattered
showers and storms are forecast at the end of the period.
Hopefully the monsoon is on its way!
Temperatures remain very hot for the next couple days. Highs will
be near daily records through Tuesday with 850mb temps of 36-37C
across the area even though our 500mb heights drop by Tuesday to
about 590 dam. As the high makes its comeback later in the week,
temps stay hot but not as scorching as early in the week. The
increasing moisture/rain chances next weekend/early next week
will cool our temps to near or even below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds increase
slightly this afternoon from W-SW with occasional gusts to mid-
upper teens. Gusty winds linger for KDMN and KTCS into the
overnight, then becoming light. Other than CU and showers over the
mountains this afternoon, mainly SKC expected. FU/HZ aloft could
reach KDMN and KTCS, but not expected to reach the surface or
limit visibility. Gusty outflows (up to 25 kts) from the east may
impact KELP this evening, but not as significant as yesterday
evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Fire danger will increase Tuesday as winds become breezy from the
west. Today, the upper high is forced southward by an approaching
upper trough. 20-ft winds increase to 10-15 mph from the west this
afternoon mainly W of the RGV. Very low RHs and modestly breezy
winds will create elevated fire danger on Monday. Scattered CU and
isolated showers develop in the mountains this afternoon with
gusty and erratic winds possible.
Tuesday will have the strongest winds of the period as the upper
trough passes north and the lee- side low strengthens. 20-ft winds
around 20 mph develop during the afternoon from the west Tuesday
afternoon for most of southern NM. With critically dry fuels and
very low RHs continuing, a low- end Red Flag day is expected for
SW NM. Red Flag Warnings are now in effect for FWZs 110, 111, 112.
RFTIs of 4 to 5 are forecast on Tuesday, mainly due to the
critically low RHs near 5%. Lighter winds return for Wednesday as
ridging builds back in, but dry conditions persist for the rest of
the workweek. Moisture levels increase over the weekend with
better rain chances areawide into early next week. Temperatures
stay above normal through the week.
Min RHs will be 4-12% through Wednesday, then 7-20%. Vent rates
will be good to excellent through the week, excellent areawide
Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 78 108 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 69 101 68 97 / 10 0 0 0
Las Cruces 70 103 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 71 103 67 100 / 0 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 57 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Truth or Consequences 73 103 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 66 93 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 69 104 66 103 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 67 101 64 100 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 78 104 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 71 106 68 100 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 74 108 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 72 98 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 73 106 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 73 103 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 79 103 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 69 103 64 100 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 69 104 65 102 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 75 105 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 71 102 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 62 91 56 86 / 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 61 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 10
Timberon 60 89 55 85 / 0 0 0 10
Winston 60 93 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 68 101 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 66 102 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 60 95 55 97 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 66 97 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 64 100 60 101 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 63 95 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 69 96 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 68 102 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 68 101 64 100 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 69 101 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 68 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central
Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for South Central
Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest
Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson