452
FXUS64 KEPZ 171645
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1045 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1003 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - Quiet weather prevails into early next week, with temperatures
   rebounding to above average.

 - It`ll be somewhat breezy again this afternoon, with gusts up
   to 30 mph. Loose objects may be knocked over.

 - There is the slightest chance of showers Tuesday night into
   Wednesday, favoring northern areas with slick roads possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1003 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Through the middle of next week, weather impacts will be low. A
shortwave trough swings through NM tonight, bringing somewhat
breezy winds ahead of it this afternoon. Lee troughing develops
over W TX, resulting in WSW winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25
mph for the afternoon. Enough moisture and lift are available to
give SE Hudspeth county a slight chance of a light rain shower
this evening, otherwise dry conditions persist.

The shortwave ejects into the Southern Plains Saturday, allowing
for lighter winds and mainly clear skies through Mon. On Tue, an
upper low spinning off SoCal will scoop up some moisture
(associated with a tropical disturbance?) around a high to the
east over northern Mexico. This is a similar set-up to what we saw
with Priscilla last weekend, but with much less moisture. Clouds
increase from the SW on Tue with low-end rain chances moving in
overnight/Wed as the upper low approaches the Four Corners
region. Northern areas will be favored to see rain showers from
this system with not much impact expected other than slick roads.
Breezier winds (gusts to 30 mph) accompany the shortwave around
midweek as it passes to the north by Thu. The timing and depth of
the trough will be key in determining how breezy it gets and which
days see the strongest winds, but at this point, we don`t expect a
big wind event. Thereafter, zonal flow looks to set up with dry
conditions and light to modestly breezy winds expected.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the short-term,
warming on Mon to above average underneath building high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Gusty winds
expected this afternoon from WSW up to 25kts, subsiding tonight
to AOB 8kts. Other than FEW-SCT060 this afternoon and evening,
mainly SKC persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1003 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Some breezy winds expected for this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph
from WSW. Min RHs remain well above critical levels, so elevated
fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Near zero rain
chances today with the best chance in SE Hudspeth county this
evening. Overnight recoveries will be good tonight. High pressure
aloft builds into the region from the south this weekend, allowing
for dry conditions and light winds. A storm system moves in on
Tuesday, bringing some breezy winds and slight rain chances for
northern areas into Wed. Temperatures warm to a few degrees above
normal through Mon.

Min RHs will be 25-40% today; then 12-20%, except for 15-25% in
the Sacs. Vent rates will be good to very good today, then poor to
good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  57  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            52  76  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               48  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               49  75  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               35  55  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    47  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              41  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   47  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                47  73  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       55  77  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  79  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  81  52  85 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               49  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   54  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             52  76  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           52  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            47  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    47  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 51  78  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                47  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  40  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                39  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 39  65  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  36  71  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                44  76  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                44  75  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             35  73  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   41  73  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    42  77  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               40  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  44  73  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   47  74  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  46  74  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           47  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               46  70  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson