Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
436
FXUS64 KEPZ 160438
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1038 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hottest temperatures of the year so far through Tuesday.
Lowland highs 103 to 108 degrees.
- Dry conditions prevailing this week, with rain chances
increasing next weekend.
- Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday afternoon
as breezy west winds develop with very dry and hot weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
...TODAY...
Ongoing heat wave due to high pressure aloft centered over the
Sierra Madres, suppressing storm chances and causing daytime
temperatures to soar. El Paso reached a daily record 109 degrees
Sunday afternoon, and will easily reach 106-109 again today and
Tuesday. This will again threaten daily record highs. Most of the
New Mexico lowlands are again looking at 102-106 degrees.
Most areas will stay dry Monday afternoon as warm nose aloft from
high pressure suffocates any potential instability. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some isolated showers form over the east slopes
of the Sacramento Mtns during the early afternoon and Hudspeth
County in the evening. These storms will be weak in intensity but
capable of gusty outflow winds and even more local blowing dust.
...TUESDAY...
Upper high sags southward on Tuesday in response to a passing
shortwave through the central Rockies. Lee surface low formation
will shift our winds to the west Tuesday afternoon, becoming
breezy (15 to 25 mph) midday. Main concern is critical fire
danger, especially over mountain forests due to the ongoing heat
and dryness. Lowland temperatures once again 102 to 108 degrees
with the hottest areas being El Paso and the Lower Valley.
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A more consistent shift of wind signaling the start of the 2025
monsoon season is likely to begin later this week. Both GFS and
ECMWF show the upper high making a slow but steady shift eastward
and southeast flow locally becoming more established by Thursday.
This flow of deeper moisture will cause a steady ramping up of
rain chances into next weekend. It will also promote a steady
cooling trend, bringing temperatures closer to normal by the end
of the week (lowland highs 95 to 100). Lowland rain chances will
remain quite low until at least next Saturday, where precipitation
water (PW) reaches 0.9", but we should see mountain coverage
increase a little bit each afternoon.
...NEXT WEEK...
Favorable fetch of moisture for storm chances next week, according
to the long term models. Best rain chances look to be Sunday
through next Tuesday. Near normal temperatures and scattered
afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Outflow from distant TS with wind direction 100-130 and gusts to
25 knots through 08Z. Lighter S flow overnight AOB 05 knots. Skies
FEW-SCT140, becoming clear by sunrise Monday morning. No direct
TS impacts expected at terminals tomorrow, but outflows may reach
KELP during the late evening hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Near critical fire danger on Monday, becoming critical on Tuesday
due to breezy west winds. Midday RH 5 to 10% each afternoon with
temperatures 8 to 10 degrees above normal for mid June. 20-foot
winds out of the west 10 to 15 mph on Monday, leading to Excellent
vent rates and smoke transport due east. Flow out of the west
increasing Tuesday afternoon to 15 to 25 mph, prompting a Fire
Weather Watch for portions of southwest New Mexico including Gila
National Forest.
Lighter winds rest of the week as the upper high pressure drifts
east and a trend of milder temperatures and increasing moisture
begins. Storm coverage over mountains will slowly increase each
day, becoming more widespread by next weekend. Storms will be
capable of new fire starts due to dry lightning and gusty,
erratic outflow winds. ERCs remain near the 90-percentile and
above normal for peak fire season, we greatly welcome any
potential wetting rain chances early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 77 108 78 108 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 67 100 70 102 / 30 10 10 0
Las Cruces 69 104 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 70 104 70 104 / 10 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 56 81 57 80 / 10 10 0 0
Truth or Consequences 72 104 72 103 / 10 0 0 0
Silver City 67 97 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 69 107 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 68 103 67 100 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 77 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 67 104 70 106 / 10 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 72 108 74 109 / 20 10 10 0
Loma Linda 70 99 72 99 / 10 10 10 0
Fabens 72 107 72 107 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 72 104 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 75 105 79 104 / 10 0 0 0
Jornada Range 68 104 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 67 106 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 73 107 75 104 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 69 102 71 102 / 10 10 0 0
Mayhill 60 92 62 92 / 0 20 0 0
Mescalero 60 92 61 91 / 0 10 0 0
Timberon 57 89 60 89 / 10 10 0 0
Winston 59 96 60 94 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 67 102 69 100 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 65 103 67 102 / 10 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 58 99 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 66 101 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 65 104 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 64 99 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 69 100 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 69 104 68 102 / 10 0 0 0
Hachita 68 103 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 70 103 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
Cloverdale 69 98 67 96 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central
Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt