Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
652 FXUS64 KEPZ 182033 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 133 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Rain is expected to develop across much of the area tonight, becoming more showery Wednesday morning. - Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in Southwestern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon, with hail the main threat, followed by damaging winds. - Additional steadier rain will sweep across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, with breezy and blustery conditions Thursday afternoon. - Snow levels will remain above 10,000 feet for most of the event, falling as low as 8000 feet Thursday morning as precip becomes more scattered. - Another storm system will bring precip to the area over the weekend, and may take a more southerly track that is more favorable for high elevation snowfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 A beautiful sunrise this morning lit up the high cirrostratus deck that has since overspread the area with a mostly opaque overcast this afternoon. This is all associated with an enhanced subtropical jet well ahead of a closed low that is sitting just off the southern California Coast. A weak shortwave trough currently over southern Sonora will move northeast towards our area overnight, spreading rain from southwest to northeast across the region. The various CAMS, including the 12Z HREF suite, continue to offer up a wetter solution than the NAM, GFS, and most NBM members. The HRRR, for example, both the 12Z and 18Z run, spreads rain across most of the CWA, except for eastern Hudspeth County between about 9 PM and Midnight, while the NAM has a much narrower band mainly focused from ELP towards the Sacramento Mountains, with lighter showers eventually spreading west towards the Gila Wednesday morning. PoP forecast through Wednesday is largely tilted towards a blend of the HREF members and more recent HRRR runs, though the QPF was tempered quite a bit, closer to the WPC guidance. Rain will become more scattered and showery on Wednesday, especially east of the Continental Divide. Some breaks of sun will develop, and weak instability (250-500 J/KG SBCAPE, not bad for November) will develop over SW New Mexico, including the Gila Region, by late afternoon. Bulk shear (0-6km) will increase to the 40 to 50 knot range in SW New Mexico as the upper low rolls into the Lower Colorado River Valley, bringing colder air aloft and steepening lapse rates. Can`t rule out a few low-topped supercells, with hail the main threat, followed by wind gusts. The risk will mainly be over the Gila and down into the Bootheel region, but a stray storm could try and sneak into western Luna or far western Sierra County. Otherwise, a band of steadier rain will push east Wednesday night into Thursday. Deep southerly flow ahead of the low will keep snow levels above 10,000 feet across the area. Snow levels will lower to around 8500-9000 feet in the Gila Thursday morning, as the upper low weakens into a negatively-tilted open trough and moves towards the AZ/NM state line. Precip will quickly come to an end as the trough lifts north and east of the area, and drier westerly flow filters in. As a result, any significant snowfall accumulations will be light, and occur above any populated areas. Worst case scenario could see a slushy half inch or inch on Emory Pass on Thursday morning. Storm total liquid QPF (tonight through Thursday morning) continues to fluctuate, mostly based on tonight`s rainfall coverage, but looks to be around 0.50 to 0.75 inches in the lowlands north and west of El Paso, tapering to 0.30 to 0.15 inches south and east of ELP. 1 to 1.50 inches will be common across the Gila (perhaps pushing 2 inches in the highest peaks of the Mogollon Mountains (the headwaters of the West Fork Gila River), and around 1 to 1.25 inches in the Sacramentos. No river flooding is expected given low river levels, a lack of snowpack. Although there`s a very low chance for isolated flooding should thunderstorms try to train in a few spots, or drop a bunch of drainage-clogging hail. Overall, this will be a beneficial rainfall, especially since the November average is only 0.48 inches. Behind the system on Thursday afternoon, expect a blustery day with a mix of clouds and sun, and a few wind gusts over 30 mph. Cooler temperatures (though near normal in reality) will follow behind this system, lasting through the remainder of the week. Another closed low looks to track over the area Saturday into Sunday, with additional precip chances. It will potentially take a more southerly track, which is usually more favorable for mountain snowfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the period. Widespread rainfall will overspread the area tonight, with most terminals impacted. Visibility and ceilings are still expected to stay in VFR range, however. There`s a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm Thursday afternoon at TCS or DMN, but this would be after 18Z, and the risk is mainly focused further west of these terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 Minimal fire weather concerns through the week as a Pacific system is set to bring widespread precipitation to the region tonight into Thursday. Snow levels will mainly stay at or above 10,000 for much of the precip period, but may fall down to around 8000-9000 feet Thursday morning as precip becomes more scattered. Storm total rainfall amounts over 1 inch in the Gila region and Sacramento Mountains will be common, and temperatures will cool as well. Another system is set to bring more precipitation this weekend, and may take a path that is more favorable for high elevation snow. Breezy west winds on Thursday afternoon will be mitigated by high humidity values, with min RH in the 40 to 60 percent range even in the lowlands. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 55 71 52 63 / 70 30 50 80 Sierra Blanca 49 68 51 61 / 20 10 30 80 Las Cruces 49 66 48 57 / 50 50 70 80 Alamogordo 48 66 46 58 / 70 60 60 80 Cloudcroft 33 45 34 38 / 80 80 60 90 Truth or Consequences 49 63 46 55 / 50 50 80 80 Silver City 43 56 39 48 / 60 70 90 70 Deming 49 67 48 59 / 70 60 80 60 Lordsburg 48 64 46 54 / 50 60 70 50 West El Paso Metro 55 68 52 61 / 60 30 50 80 Dell City 50 70 50 64 / 20 10 30 70 Fort Hancock 54 74 53 68 / 30 20 30 70 Loma Linda 49 63 47 55 / 70 40 40 80 Fabens 54 71 53 64 / 60 30 40 70 Santa Teresa 51 67 50 59 / 60 40 60 70 White Sands HQ 52 67 50 58 / 60 50 60 80 Jornada Range 48 66 48 57 / 50 50 70 80 Hatch 49 68 50 60 / 50 50 80 70 Columbus 51 69 50 61 / 50 50 80 50 Orogrande 49 65 49 57 / 60 50 50 80 Mayhill 40 57 40 50 / 80 70 50 80 Mescalero 37 56 38 49 / 80 80 70 90 Timberon 36 53 39 45 / 80 80 50 90 Winston 38 56 36 48 / 50 70 90 70 Hillsboro 46 62 44 55 / 60 60 80 70 Spaceport 46 64 47 56 / 50 50 80 80 Lake Roberts 38 56 35 47 / 60 70 90 80 Hurley 43 59 40 51 / 60 60 90 70 Cliff 45 63 42 54 / 40 70 80 70 Mule Creek 41 58 40 49 / 50 70 80 70 Faywood 46 58 43 50 / 70 70 90 70 Animas 49 66 45 57 / 40 60 70 40 Hachita 48 66 47 56 / 60 60 70 50 Antelope Wells 48 67 46 56 / 60 50 70 40 Cloverdale 46 60 42 49 / 50 60 70 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman