578
FXUS64 KEPZ 272330
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
530 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

 - Hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running
   5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 107 each
   afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

 - Rain chances will be limited to the high elevations and
   Southwest New Mexico this week. Isolated storms will be capable
   of brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash
   flooding.

 - Some moisture from Arizona and Sonora will work into
   southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, and may bring a one-day
   uptick in thunderstorm chances there.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Upper high pressure will continue to spin broadly over northern
NM and the TX/OK Panhandle today through Thursday. Upper high
begins shifting towards the Four Corners region Friday and
throughout the weekend. Expect thunderstorm chances each afternoon
with a focus over the area mountains (Gila region and Sacramento
Mtns) and western locations bordering Arizona. Tuesday looks like
it could have an uptick in storm activity in southwestern NM
Tuesday evening. CAMs are suggesting a large complex of storms in
northwest Mexico which will push in better moisture to the
southwestern portions of the CWA later tonight. This push of
moisture may help set the stage for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Looks like an area of surface convergence is possible as well.
Areas of flash flooding will be possible. 0-6km shear values in
this area will be around 30-35KT which is sufficient for some
organized cells. Wednesday and onward we keep our storm chances
with a focus over the area mountains and western locations.

As far as temperatures go, the area will remain HOT the next 7 days.
Temperatures will generally be 7-10 degrees above normal. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for several lowland locations including Las
Cruces, Hatch, the El Paso metro, and the lower Valley today and
tomorrow. Triple digit readings will be common across the lowlands
for the week ahead. May need to extend the Heat Advisory potentially
through Friday. High temperatures will be close or will reach Heat
Advisory criteria (max temperatures greater than or equal to 105F)
during this time. This will be an extended heat wave, so please take
the heat seriously.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Isolated TSRA across SW NM next few hours. Gusts up to 35 knots
for KDMN through 03Z. Skies FEW-SCT100, BKN200 this evening,
becoming SCT150 overnight as TS diminishes. Gusty west winds from
distant outflows leading to 250-290 at 10 to 15 knots overnight.
Will likely need mention of TS for S NM sites Tuesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Generally low fire weather concerns for the week ahead. Min RHs
across the desert lowlands will be near critical to critical each
day with percentages of around 13-20% each afternoon. Area
mountain min RHs will be 25-40%. Storm chances exist each
afternoon with a focus over the area mountains and locations along
and west of the Continental Divide. Looks like there will be an
uptick in storm activity and coverage tomorrow afternoon and
evening for the Gila region and lowland locations west of the Rio
Grande. Temperatures will remain hot each afternoon with lowland
temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits, mountain areas
with highs of 75F to 90F.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 105  79 104 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            71 101  70  99 /   0  10   0   0
Las Cruces               73 103  72 102 /  10   0  20   0
Alamogordo               77 103  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               58  80  56  78 /  10  20  10  10
Truth or Consequences    76 102  74 101 /  10  10  50   0
Silver City              68  95  66  94 /  10  50  50  30
Deming                   73 104  72 103 /  10  10  20  10
Lordsburg                73 100  72 100 /  10  10  40  10
West El Paso Metro       80 104  79 103 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                74 104  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             78 107  77 107 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               72  98  71  96 /  10   0  10   0
Fabens                   77 105  77 104 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             76 102  75 102 /  10   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           80 104  79 103 /  10   0  20   0
Jornada Range            76 104  75 102 /  10   0  30   0
Hatch                    76 106  74 105 /  10  10  30   0
Columbus                 78 104  77 104 /  10  10  30   0
Orogrande                74 103  73 101 /  10   0  10   0
Mayhill                  63  92  61  89 /  10  10  10   0
Mescalero                63  91  60  90 /  10  20  10  10
Timberon                 60  89  59  89 /  10  10  10   0
Winston                  66  93  64  92 /  10  40  40  30
Hillsboro                73 100  72  99 /  10  20  40  10
Spaceport                73 102  72 101 /  10  10  40   0
Lake Roberts             61  95  60  94 /  10  60  50  60
Hurley                   69  98  67  97 /  10  50  40  20
Cliff                    69 100  68 100 /  20  50  40  30
Mule Creek               66  96  65  96 /  30  50  40  40
Faywood                  70  98  68  97 /  10  30  40  10
Animas                   72 100  72 100 /  10  10  40  10
Hachita                  72 100  71 100 /  10  10  40  10
Antelope Wells           70  99  70 100 /  40  10  50  10
Cloverdale               64  92  66  94 /  50  10  50  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Eastern/Central El Paso
     County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Northern Dona Ana
     County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central
     Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt