Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
342 FXUS64 KEPZ 051757 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1157 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 957 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026 - Thunderstorm chances continue today and Saturday, though Saturday limited mostly to areas east of the Rio Grande Valley. - Drier and warmer on Sunday through Wednesday with many lowland areas seeing their first 100 degree days of the season. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1019 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Thunderstorms will flare up once again this afternoon as the upper-level low continues to move northeast. All areas of the CWA will see at least a slight chance of precipitation this evening, with the eastern Rio Grande Valley receiving the highest chance of storms (40-60%). The low reaches the Texas Panhandle on Saturday, so any limited moisture be relegated to the eastern reaches of Otero and Hudspeth Counties, while the rest of the region will see temperatures creep back into the 90s. A upper-level ridge builds up to our west for Sunday as the upper-level low exits our region, and the lowlands will breach the triple digit mark at the earliest, Sunday, at the latest, Tuesday. Clear skies and dry air will be in place from Sunday to Tuesday. Heading into Wednesday, a new Pacific system moves onshore, and southerly flow will facilitate sub-tropical moisture back into our area. However, the GFS/ECMWF still show a discrepancy for when thunderstorms will arrive; GFS has the low deeper into the Four Corners region Wednesday, thereby raising the chance for thunderstorms, whereas the ECMWF keeps the low further north, keeping thunderstorm chances down. On Thursday, the GFS has drier flow moving in while the ECMWF has the moisture stay in our region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1019 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions are in place for the Rio Grande this afternoon, with clouds mainly limited to the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Currently, winds between 5-8kt are blowing from the south to the southwest as the upper-level low moves east. Starting around 21Z, thunderstorms will begin to fire up in the upper terrains, drifting southwest into lower elevations. These thunderstorms will produce outflow winds from the northeast, and while reductions in visibilities should be minimal, MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out between 22Z and 04Z for KDMN, KLRU, KTCS, and KELP because of blowing dust or rain. These outflow boundaries will produce winds up to 20kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Thunderstorms will begin to dissipate around 03Z, and visibilities will return to VFR conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1019 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Today will be the last day of widespread thunderstorm chances as moisture begins exiting the area. Min RH values will be in the lower teens toward the AZ border with upper 30s to lower 40s across Hudspeth County and into the Sacramento Mountains. By Saturday, areas west of the Rio Grande drop into the lower and mid teens while areas east hold onto the 20s. This will lead to poor overnight recoveries Saturday night, and by Sunday afternoon, all areas except the highest elevations will have afternoon min RH values near 10% while highs top out up to 5 degrees above normal, increasing more for Sunday. Thunderstorm chances will also be confined to easterly areas on Saturday with all areas staying dry on Sunday. Winds will remain light throughout the period, staying under 10 MPH during the afternoon. Vent rates will range poor east to excellent west today. Western areas will improve a category to fair on Saturday with all areas ranging very good to excellent on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 94 71 99 / 40 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 86 60 93 / 30 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 94 64 96 / 30 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 91 67 96 / 30 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 69 50 74 / 30 30 0 0 Truth or Consequences 63 94 67 95 / 30 10 10 0 Silver City 55 89 58 87 / 20 0 0 0 Deming 60 99 64 98 / 30 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 94 62 94 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 93 69 98 / 30 0 0 0 Dell City 58 89 60 97 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 95 65 101 / 30 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 85 63 90 / 30 0 0 0 Fabens 61 95 64 100 / 30 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 93 65 97 / 30 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 93 74 97 / 30 0 0 0 Jornada Range 60 93 64 97 / 30 0 0 0 Hatch 61 97 66 99 / 30 0 0 0 Columbus 64 97 70 98 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 59 90 63 96 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 80 55 87 / 30 40 10 10 Mescalero 49 80 53 84 / 30 30 0 0 Timberon 46 75 50 81 / 30 30 0 0 Winston 53 86 57 87 / 30 10 10 0 Hillsboro 61 91 65 93 / 30 10 0 0 Spaceport 58 92 62 96 / 30 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 90 54 88 / 30 10 0 0 Hurley 56 91 60 90 / 20 0 0 0 Cliff 56 95 57 94 / 20 0 0 0 Mule Creek 55 91 55 89 / 20 0 0 0 Faywood 58 90 61 90 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 61 95 61 94 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 60 94 62 94 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 93 62 94 / 20 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 88 59 88 / 20 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...41-Zotter/34-Brown