Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
540
FXUS64 KEPZ 300401
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1001 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into late tonight. Some of
these storms will produce heavy rainfall and local flooding,
with another round of thunderstorms spreading in from the west
later Friday.
- A quiet period looks to arrive in time for Halloween, Saturday.
- A upper level system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to
the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
- Quieter and drier weather looks to prevail after Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Tropical moisture continues over much of the CWA this evening (00Z
KEPZ sounding still has 1.01 inches of PW). Expect a few showers
and thunderstorms to continue overnight. Hi-res models have been
very inconsistent, but latest HRRR/FV3 show one last batch of
rain/storms from about the Cont Divide east and drifting east,
mostly done by around 12Z-14Z...perhaps driven by a short wave
just south of the NM Bootheel.
Our next weather system is currently organizing just west of the
Baja as a strong sub-tropical jet pushes moisture into the area
Friday. GFS/ECMWF have been pretty consistent, moving the upper
trough to eastern Arizona Friday afternoon. This will begin
spreading showers/thunderstorms to the western CWA, with the rain
spreading east over most of the remainder of the CWA by around
midnight. PWs still hang around one inch so flooding will still be a
threat for the last half of Friday. Mid-level winds do pick up as
the upper jet approaches so storms should move faster. Daytime CAPES
of up to 500 J/kg along with some shear suggest some strong/severe
storms possible. Models showing rain should be done late Saturday
morning/mid-day, just in time for a dry trick-or-treat evening.
Finally, the main upper trough and frontal system will sweep in
Sunday. Once again, showers/thunderstorms will develop west of
Deming in the afternoon and rapidly spread east by late
evening/early Monday morning. This may be more typical Fall, low
energy, fast moving type showers as very little instability develops
and strong mid-level winds should speed the showers through. Surface
cold front sweeps through El Paso early evening and showers should
end shortly after fropa. A few showers could linger far east to
around noon Monday. Warm temperatures of Sunday will fall back below
normal Monday and Tuesday. The good news is a drying trend is in
store through Thursday, before another possible round of showers
next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026
SCT-BKN080 BKN150 BKN250 with scattered BKN-OVC050CB 5-7SM
SHRA/-TSRA from about Deming east. These showers will end from the
west through the night by around 12Z. A few showers/thunderstorms
possible over the Sacrament Mtns after 18Z...otherwise
thunderstorms developing west of Deming after 22Z and spreading to
the RG Valley by end of period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 929 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Plentiful moisture over the next several days will keep fire weather
conditions low as continuous rounds of rain blanket the region.
Thursday`s min RHs will be in the 30s out west and increasing to the
50s out east before increasing to the at least the 50s area wide on
Friday (some lowland areas may be in the upper 40s). Min RHs will be
above 30% across the area through Monday. Ventilation rates will
fall from Fair on Thursday to Poor on Friday as low-level winds
subside. Ventilation rates improve over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 58 71 58 73 / 60 20 70 10
Sierra Blanca 52 69 53 72 / 60 20 30 10
Las Cruces 54 71 53 72 / 50 0 70 0
Alamogordo 51 71 52 71 / 60 20 70 10
Cloudcroft 39 53 40 53 / 70 30 80 10
Truth or Consequences 53 71 53 71 / 60 0 70 20
Silver City 49 67 48 66 / 30 10 90 20
Deming 53 73 52 72 / 40 0 70 10
Lordsburg 52 73 51 71 / 50 20 80 10
West El Paso Metro 60 71 60 73 / 70 20 70 10
Dell City 56 72 56 73 / 60 20 50 10
Fort Hancock 59 77 60 80 / 50 20 40 10
Loma Linda 52 65 53 67 / 60 20 60 0
Fabens 58 74 59 76 / 60 20 60 0
Santa Teresa 57 70 56 72 / 70 10 70 10
White Sands HQ 57 71 57 72 / 60 10 70 10
Jornada Range 52 71 52 71 / 60 10 70 10
Hatch 55 75 54 75 / 60 0 70 10
Columbus 56 74 56 75 / 40 0 70 10
Orogrande 52 70 52 71 / 70 20 70 10
Mayhill 45 62 45 65 / 90 50 70 10
Mescalero 44 64 45 63 / 70 30 70 20
Timberon 42 61 42 61 / 70 30 80 10
Winston 44 66 44 65 / 50 20 80 10
Hillsboro 52 71 50 71 / 50 0 80 20
Spaceport 51 71 50 70 / 60 10 70 20
Lake Roberts 43 68 44 66 / 30 10 90 20
Hurley 48 69 47 68 / 30 10 90 20
Cliff 48 74 49 71 / 30 20 90 20
Mule Creek 44 69 45 67 / 30 30 90 20
Faywood 50 68 50 67 / 40 10 80 20
Animas 53 74 53 73 / 40 20 80 10
Hachita 52 72 52 72 / 60 10 80 10
Antelope Wells 52 73 53 73 / 50 10 70 20
Cloverdale 50 69 52 68 / 30 30 80 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner