Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
834
FXUS64 KEPZ 111308
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
708 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Issued initial Flood Watch for the Gila down through the Bootheel
Region. Main concern for today is deeper convection this afternoon
and overnight with localized torrential downpours, with several
CAMS indicating max rainfall rates over 1 inch per hour, and
potential for training cells. Heading into Sunday, instability
weakens, but with plenty of tropical moisture around, and upper
level impulses embedded in southwesterly flow aloft, we`ll see
several waves of moderate to locally heavy rain showers,
especially over the Bootheel region. There`s a bit of a divide
between the coarser scale models (NAM, GFS) and the CAMS with
northward extent of precip on Sunday, with the former having much
less rainfall over the Gila versus the latter. In terms of impacts
Sunday, should the CAMS win out over the Gila, we`ll likely see
creeks and arroyos flowing, including low water crossings. The
flow will be fairly low, but long-lasting, though many crossings
may remain passable. Over the Bootheel, the "flash" flood risk
will be lower, but continued runoff could work into the slower-
responding "mainstem" washes such as Animas Creek, and this could
lead to deeper flows at low water crossings, possibly cutting off
some backroads for a time. Further rainfall is possible Monday,
but with the shifting nature of things, we decided to cut the
watch off at 6 PM Sunday, rather than cast too wide a net
temporally speaking. It can always be extended as things come into
sharper focus.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- Rain chances and moisture will increase across the region from
west to east on Saturday. Best chances for rain will be west of
the Continental Divide on Saturday.
- Remnant tropical moisture will continue to flow over the area
Saturday night through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances.
Heavy rain will be a threat in southern and western areas of
New Mexico with flooding possible.
- Temperatures will be near or above normal Saturday,then
cooling below average early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Saturday will be a transition day as abundant moisture will begin
to move into the region. We already have above average
precipitable water values (PW`s) across the area. This evening`s
balloon sounding had a PW of 1.13 which is well above average and
by Saturday night we will see record high PW`s of 1.4 to 1.5. The
reason for all this moisture is not one but two tropical systems.
Both post-tropical Priscilla and tropical storm Raymond will
funnel moisture into the southwest U.S. Initially the bulk of the
moisture will push into Arizona, where we are already seeing
numerous showers this evening. But an approaching west coast upper
level trough will push that moisture plume into New Mexico on
Saturday and then Raymond`s moisture will push into the region
late Saturday and into Sunday. Normally this amount of moisture
might mean a bunch of clouds without a lot of rain, but with the
west coast trough near the region on Saturday, that will help
provide some lift. For Saturday morning our CAPE (convective
available potential energy) will be near zero, so initially we
will have little chance for rain tonight through Saturday morning.
But then the deeper moisture and higher CAPE values of 200 to 500
will move into the region. While those CAPE numbers are not too
impressive, it Will provide enough lift and energy to get showers
and isolated thunderstorms going first west of the Rio Grande,
but by Saturday evening across the whole area.
For Sunday the deep moisture will continue to flow into the area
as more energy from the west coast upper level trough continues to
wash across the region. Sunday, looks like the wettest day with
numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. What few
thunderstorms that do develop will be very efficient rain makers,
but more likely we will see lots of rain showers. The rain showers
individually won`t add up to much rain, but hour after hour we
could see some sizable rain totals. Much of the region will see
rainfall totals 0.50 to 1.00 with isolated higher amounts. Our
sensitive burn scars and other flood sensitive areas will need to
be monitored for the potential of flooding. The rain chances will
continue into Monday so we will need to continue to monitor
things for flooding. By Tuesday and into Wednesday we will have
drier air begin to filter into the region, which will help lower
our rain chances so that by Wednesday afternoon we will finally be
drying out. Drier air will continue to push into the area so that
we will have dry conditions through the end of next week.
Taking a quick look at temperatures. On Saturday, will have
another warm day as the moisture will take just long enough to
arrive to allow things to warm up so that our highs on Saturday
will run a few degrees above average. But with the clouds and rain
on Sunday and Monday, we will see high temperatures running 5 to
10 degrees below average. As we begin to slowly dry out for
Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see our high temperature begin to
rebound and by the end of next week our highs will be a little
above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will begin moving into SW New Mexico
around midday, but will stay west of DMN and TCS until after about
20-21Z, before spreading into LRU and ELP between 23Z and 02Z.
Main impact will be visibility restrictions in brief torrential
downpours, while ceilings remain in the VFR range. Heading into
Sunday, with cooler temperatures and plenty of moisture in place,
and more stratiform-type showers, we`ll see an increased chance of
ceiling restrictions, but this will be after 12Z Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 651 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Fire weather concerns are minimal as an influx of tropical
moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms across a bulk of the
forecast area starting later today. Rain, cooler temperatures,
and higher humidity will persist through Monday, with spottier
showers and thunderstorms lingering into Wednesday. Drier and
warmer conditions will return on Thursday and persist into next
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 68 75 63 77 / 80 80 80 50
Sierra Blanca 61 73 58 76 / 60 80 80 50
Las Cruces 62 72 58 71 / 70 80 70 70
Alamogordo 62 76 58 73 / 60 60 60 60
Cloudcroft 46 55 43 53 / 60 60 60 70
Truth or Consequences 60 76 57 71 / 40 50 50 70
Silver City 56 68 53 66 / 70 70 70 80
Deming 63 74 59 73 / 70 80 70 70
Lordsburg 62 71 59 70 / 70 80 70 70
West El Paso Metro 66 73 63 74 / 80 80 80 50
Dell City 63 78 61 77 / 70 60 70 40
Fort Hancock 67 78 64 81 / 70 80 80 50
Loma Linda 60 68 57 69 / 80 80 80 50
Fabens 65 74 63 76 / 80 80 80 50
Santa Teresa 64 71 61 72 / 80 80 80 60
White Sands HQ 65 73 61 72 / 70 80 70 70
Jornada Range 62 73 59 71 / 60 70 70 70
Hatch 62 77 60 74 / 60 70 60 70
Columbus 63 73 61 73 / 80 90 80 70
Orogrande 61 72 58 71 / 70 70 80 60
Mayhill 53 68 49 64 / 50 70 60 70
Mescalero 51 68 48 65 / 60 60 60 70
Timberon 49 63 47 61 / 70 70 70 70
Winston 50 71 48 66 / 40 50 40 70
Hillsboro 57 76 55 71 / 50 60 60 70
Spaceport 59 75 57 71 / 50 60 60 70
Lake Roberts 52 70 50 68 / 70 70 60 80
Hurley 57 70 54 68 / 70 70 70 80
Cliff 60 75 57 73 / 60 60 60 70
Mule Creek 56 72 53 69 / 60 70 60 70
Faywood 58 70 56 66 / 60 70 70 80
Animas 62 72 60 71 / 80 90 70 70
Hachita 60 70 58 69 / 70 90 80 70
Antelope Wells 61 70 58 71 / 90 90 80 70
Cloverdale 60 65 57 65 / 90 90 80 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-
Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Uplands of the Bootheel-
Upper Gila River Valley.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25-Hardiman