Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
471 FXUS64 KEPZ 030412 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1012 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 - Temperatures remain cool (5-8 degrees below normal) through Monday; warming trend back to above normal by mid-week. - Mostly dry conditions through much of next week, before a slight chance of showers returns next weekend. - Breezy winds again Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Extremely positively tilted trough extends from eastern Great Lakes back across the southern Plains to eastern New Mexico. Closed off low in this trough remains over SE New Mexico. Deeper layered moisture remains well to our east ahead of the trough. Over our area shallow moisture remains in place behind the back door front of yesterday. Extensive CU and SC formed with this moisture with a few stray light showers. Stratus and fog continue with the upslope conditions over the eastern Sacs and some lower clouds continue in other areas east of the Organ/Franklin Mtns. All these clouds should gradually dissipated through Saturday mid-day, though models show continued upslope and stratus/fog possible over the eastern Sacs into Sunday. Otherwise partly/mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday, though still cool with temperatures around 5-8 degrees below normal. Monday through Thursday...nice Fall weather continues as the trough slinks southward and high pressure builds in over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will gradually warm up with highs back to normal by Wednesday. A Pacific trough does ride over the ridge and down over New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. This trough will have very little moisture with it, but could kick off a few mountain showers Wednesday. The trough drops south of the area Thursday. Friday into the weekend...GFS/ECMWF begin wild divergence in solutions after Thursday. GFS drops the aforementioned trough down south of the Big Bend, closing it off into a low and lifting it back up to west Texas by Sunday with a batch of sub-tropical moisture and a chance of rain. ECMWF takes that same closed low eastward allowing drier southwest flow to develop over our area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 East of the San Andres/Organ/Franklin Mtns...SCT-BKN080 BKN/OVC120. Isolated BKN050 -SHRA. Additionally along the east slopes and the ridge of the Sacramento Mtns..occasional OVC030 1-3SM -DZ BR. West of the San Andres/Organ/Franklin Mtns...SCT080 SCT-BKN120. Most of these clouds dissipating toward Saturday mid-day/afternoon. East winds 7-10 knots. Gusts to 20 knots mainly over Hidalgo County. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 A gradual warming trend is coming for the next 5 days with highs starting out about 3-5 degrees below normal and by the middle of next week ending up about 3-5 degrees above normal. RH`s will be above 30% through Tuesday with some 20s possible by Wednesday. Gusty winds this afternoon will die down for Saturday then another slight increase for Sun/Mon but still below 20KTS. Besides a few showers in the Sacs into this evening and some isolated showers Mon/Wed next week up there as well, dry conditions will prevail. Vent rates will be poor to fair Sat and improve to fair to good for Sun. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 57 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 51 72 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 72 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 72 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 57 38 58 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 71 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 70 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 73 54 75 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 74 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 51 70 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 75 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 74 55 78 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 55 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 74 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 66 44 65 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 45 67 44 68 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 43 62 42 64 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 44 68 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 70 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 74 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 70 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 74 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 72 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 73 55 75 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 52 70 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner