Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
340 FXUS64 KEPZ 071248 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 648 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 959 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - Drier and hotter Sunday into next week with many lowland areas seeing their first 100 degree days of the season. - Moisture will occasionally seep in from the east, giving the Sacramento Mtns a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 959 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Upper low driving our weather has now moved out over the southern Plains, to be replaced short wave ridge over New Mexico. Low level moisture across the CWA has diminished as dewpoints are now in the 30s east and 20s west. Limited convection was able to form over the mountains this afternoon but did not survive moving off the mountains over the lowlands. Upper ridge continues over the area Sunday, keeping most/all convective activity out of our area. Monday through Wednesday...battle takes place between the next Pacific trough moving into the western US against the sub-tropical high building westward from the GOA and Texas. The high basically wins out as the Pacific trough rides up over it by Wednesday. The southerly flow and sub-tropical moisture between these two features does increase by Tuesday, and along with low level moisture advection from the east (dewpoints into the 40s east), a few thunderstorms could pop up over the Sacs and eastern Hudspeth Tuesday. The action of the trough riding up over the high turns out winds west Wednesday and scours out much of the moisture. This also allows our heat to return and much of the lowlands will see their first triple digit readings of the season during this stretch. Thursday through Saturday...sub-tropical high persists over northern Mexico for continued very warm temperatures, with lowlands remaining around or just above 100 degrees. Having said that, the high will not completely suppress convection, as low level moisture does drift in again Friday and Saturday. Short waves with the Pacific low may impinge into our area Friday and Saturday, adding to the slight chances of thunderstorms again. Best chances will be over the mountains (surprisingly), but Saturday could see a few thunderstorms develop over other areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026 VFR conditions with just some passing high clouds. Winds generally light, 10-15 knots in the afternoon, favoring south to southwest. One exception is a period of NNW flow at ELP this morning, expected between 16Z and 20Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 646 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Hotter and drier conditions through the week. A series of very weak shortwave troughs will attempt to produce highly isolated afternoon showers over the higher terrain areas at times, but this will mostly be virga and cumulus build-ups. There`s a better chance for a stray thunderstorm over the Sacramento Mountains late Tuesday, and somewhat breezier conditions Wednesday with elevated fire weather conditions. A back door cold front may bring a shift in the weather towards the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 97 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 64 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 58 90 60 91 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 63 101 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 62 100 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 68 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 66 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 64 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 65 101 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 69 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 63 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 88 56 87 / 0 10 0 20 Mescalero 53 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 50 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 54 87 56 88 / 0 10 0 10 Hillsboro 64 94 67 96 / 0 10 0 0 Spaceport 60 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 49 90 50 91 / 0 10 0 0 Hurley 59 93 61 95 / 0 10 0 0 Cliff 51 96 51 99 / 0 10 0 0 Mule Creek 46 91 46 93 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 61 92 64 94 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 62 96 64 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 62 97 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 62 96 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25