Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
378 FXUS64 KEPZ 100353 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 953 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 946 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Drier and somewhat breezy conditions Friday. - Remnant tropical moisture will flow over the area Saturday through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain threat will be favored in southern and western areas with flooding possible. - Temperatures will be near or above normal through Saturday, then cooling early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 946 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 For Fri, the upper high remains over W TX, keeping much of the moisture to the west in AZ. PWs stay above normal (about 1.1"; normal is around 0.6"), but the mid-level capping will limit our instability and convective potential. As a result, mainly dry conditions are forecast for the short-term. The pressure gradient stays somewhat tight for Fri, especially in western areas closer to where surface troughing develops in Sonora/southern AZ. E-SE winds remain on the breezy side, generally 10-20 mph, stronger near the NM- AZ border. For the weekend and early next week, deep tropical moisture advects into the region from the southwest associated with two separate tropical features. First is TS Priscilla, which continues to weaken off the coast of Baja tonight. Its moisture gets scooped up by an advancing Pacific trough Fri-Sat, bringing highly anomalous moisture to AZ/Four Corners region. As the trough progresses eastward Sat night/Sun, we`ll get that near-record moisture content as well. PWs are modeled to peak around 1.5" at EPZ Sat night according to the latest ensemble guidance, slightly higher than this time yesterday. Record PWs for mid-Oct are about 1.2", so there`s a high chance we break a daily record this weekend and a low chance of setting a monthly PW record, which is around 1.6". The passing trough will provide some lift for storms to develop, but extensive cloud cover could limit instability and leave us with more stratiform precip. Rain/storm chances increase from west to east Sat/overnight with western areas favored to see flash flooding into Sun AM. Through 12z Sun, WPC has a Slight ERO along and west of the Divide with a medium chance of exceeding 1". Relatively fast storm motions will help limit the flash flood threat, but any storms will be capable of producing efficient rain rates of 1-2" per hour. By Sunday AM, moisture associated with the second tropical feature (now TS Raymond) meets up with Priscilla`s remnant moisture along the Int`l border. The upper trough will be ejecting into the Plains on Sunday, so we won`t have as much forcing with this other batch of tropical moisture, at least initially. There`s some uncertainty regarding where the deepest moisture sets up Sun, but we will most likely see continued near-record PWs. Embedded vorts/shortwaves may pass through the region on Sunday, overlapping where the deepest moisture is located. Areas along and south of I-10 in NM are most favored to see heavy rainfall and flash flooding on Sunday, where a high-end Slight ERO is in place. 70-90% chance of 1"+ are forecast Sun/Sun night from El Paso westward along the Int`l border, and 20- 40% of 2"+. The flood threat lowers as you head north and east where moisture levels are less impressive. No Flood Watches are in effect as of now, but could be introduced by Saturday if the forecast is consistent. Confidence is increasing in this flood threat on Sunday. Another feature to keep an eye on is a second Pacific trough during the first half of the week, which may provide some lift and scoop up what`s left of Raymond`s moisture. We`re unsure if this trough will be close enough or timed correctly to enhance our storm chances through Tue, but the moisture is modeled to be pulled northward on Mon. The flood threat remains on Monday for much of the region, favoring areas to the north and west. The NBM gives those areas a medium chance of exceeding 1" Mon/Mon night with lower probabilities south and east. Drier conditions are forecast into the middle of next week, but that`ll depend on the Pacific storm`s behavior and trajectory. The 18z GFS brings the low south into SoCal as an upper high sits to the east, pumping some moisture in from the south through midweek. Confidence is low regarding a battle between dry, southwesterly flow around the low and a moisture tap around the high to end the period. Temperatures will warm to a few degrees above normal through Sat. Temps will be seasonably cool on Sunday (12z GFS MOS has a high of 69 for KELP!) due to the clouds and rain chances, then rebound to near or above normal for midweek as rain chances diminish. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. E-SE winds AOB 10kts through the AM. Some gustiness returns for the afternoon to the upper teens. A batch of mid clouds progress northwestward tonight with no rain expected for the terminals. FEW-SCT CU develop during the afternoon like what happened Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Low level moisture will remain in place through the period with min RH`s in the 30s early on but by Sunday into Tuesday will be up into the 40s to 60s. Generally dry through Friday, but precip will start moving in early Saturday from the west and spread east by early Sunday. Chances for rainfall will continue through at least Tuesday with some locally heavy rainfall amounts possible leading to flooding. The rain looks more stratiform with isolated embedded thunderstorms, so it will be more of a moderate, prolonged rain event. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 86 68 88 67 / 10 10 0 10 Sierra Blanca 81 57 84 60 / 20 10 10 0 Las Cruces 82 63 83 62 / 10 10 0 10 Alamogordo 82 62 84 61 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 60 45 63 46 / 10 10 10 10 Truth or Consequences 79 62 81 60 / 10 10 10 20 Silver City 76 57 76 56 / 20 10 10 20 Deming 84 65 85 63 / 10 10 0 20 Lordsburg 84 65 83 61 / 10 0 0 20 West El Paso Metro 84 68 87 66 / 10 10 0 10 Dell City 84 60 87 62 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 88 65 91 67 / 20 10 0 10 Loma Linda 77 60 81 60 / 20 10 0 10 Fabens 86 65 90 66 / 20 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 83 65 86 64 / 0 10 0 10 White Sands HQ 82 65 85 64 / 10 10 0 10 Jornada Range 81 63 83 61 / 10 10 0 10 Hatch 84 64 86 63 / 10 10 10 10 Columbus 86 66 86 64 / 10 10 0 10 Orogrande 81 61 83 61 / 0 10 0 10 Mayhill 70 49 74 53 / 10 10 10 10 Mescalero 71 50 75 51 / 10 10 10 10 Timberon 68 47 71 49 / 10 10 10 10 Winston 71 51 75 51 / 20 10 10 20 Hillsboro 78 59 82 58 / 20 10 10 20 Spaceport 80 60 83 59 / 10 10 0 10 Lake Roberts 76 54 77 52 / 30 10 10 30 Hurley 78 58 79 57 / 20 10 0 20 Cliff 84 62 83 59 / 20 10 10 30 Mule Creek 80 58 78 56 / 20 10 10 30 Faywood 77 60 78 58 / 20 10 10 20 Animas 85 64 84 62 / 10 10 0 20 Hachita 83 63 83 61 / 10 10 0 20 Antelope Wells 85 62 84 61 / 10 10 10 20 Cloverdale 81 61 79 59 / 10 10 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson