Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
945 FXUS64 KEPZ 222329 AAA AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 529 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Much drier air in place this weekend, with only slight storm chances across the Gila Wilderness. - Rain chances increase significantly Tuesday and Wednesday with some flash flood potential. - Seasonable temperatures through Monday, then cooling below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1058 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 WV imagery showing upper high centered over the Four Corners. Much drier air has moved in over the CWA, with PWs ranging from about .50 to .80 inches. Dewpoints are still mostly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Despite this decent moisture, the upper high is capping most of the atmosphere--KELP sounding shows caps at around 600 and 500 mb. Because of this, expect little to no chance of thunderstorms today; only the Gila region has a remote shot at rain as they are closest to the deeper moisture over eastern Arizona. This general pattern will continue through Sunday with very little chance of rain. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal. Monday through Wednesday...we begin transitioning back to a more typical monsoon pattern. The upper high begins accelerating south and then east. The high is probably still too much over southern New Mexico to increase rain chances much, but moisture does begin increasing. Tuesday/Wednesday will see the peak of moisture and as upper high now resides SE Texas, subsidence/capping should also decrease. This will allow a southerly flow to develop, advecting in sub-tropical moisture. Thus good chances of rain everywhere and with PWs approaching 1.40 inches in places (140% of normal), flash flooding will become a concern. Thursday and Friday...Upper high begins extending westward over northern Mexico. This will turn the mid/upper flow more southwest to west, with drier air beginning to rotate in from the wind. Thus, rain chances should begin decreasing, with the best chances of rain east of the RG Valley. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period with generally light winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1058 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Not much in the way of fire concerns. We do dry out over the next several days, but min RHs lowlands will only drop close to 15% by Sunday and Monday (all other areas remaining well above 15%). Thus, little to no chance of rain all fire zones. No significant winds are expected during this dry stretch. Tuesday and Wednesday will see a significant moisture increase and rain chances will increase accordingly. Flood chances will increase these two days, especially over/near burn scars. Min RH: Lowlands 15-23% through Monday, then increasing to 25-40% Tuesday/Wednesday. Gila/Black Range Mtns 20-30% through Monday, then increasing to 40-60% Tuesday/Wednesday; Sacramento Mtns 25-40% through Monday, then increasing to 55-70% Tuesday/Wednesday. Vent rates good-very good through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 97 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 91 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 66 94 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 67 94 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 72 48 70 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 67 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 62 89 62 87 / 0 10 0 10 Deming 66 97 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 67 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 94 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 65 93 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 69 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 69 94 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 67 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 67 96 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 65 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 54 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 52 81 51 80 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 56 87 56 86 / 0 10 0 10 Hillsboro 63 93 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 89 56 87 / 0 10 10 20 Hurley 62 91 62 89 / 0 10 0 0 Cliff 65 96 66 94 / 0 10 10 10 Mule Creek 63 92 63 91 / 10 20 10 10 Faywood 64 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 97 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 65 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99