681
FXUS64 KEPZ 121137
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
537 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

 - Remnant tropical moisture will continue to flow over the area
   Sunday and Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain
   will be a threat in southern and western areas of New Mexico
   with flooding possible.

 - We will see a drying trend starting on Tuesday and we will be
   rain free through the end of the week.

 - We will have well below average high temperatures for Sunday
   and Monday. For Tuesday through Friday our high temperatures
   will be near seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Well the moisture has arrived with a record setting precipitable
water value (PW) on tonight`s balloon sounding of 1.33. We have
seen wide spread showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening with rainfall totals that range from 0.25 to 0.50
inches. And with the moisture in place and the upper level trough
still to our west, we will continue to see off and on showers
through the overnight hours. By early morning Sunday, we may take
a bit of a break from the rain, but by late morning we will see
more rain showers develop. The showers will favor locations along
the International Border during the afternoon hours of Sunday.
Thunderstorms will also be possible on Sunday, but not likely as
the clouds and rain will limit heating. High temperatures on
Sunday will run 10 to 15 degrees below average.

The upper level trough to our west will be slow to pull out and
the moisture will still be streaming across the region on Monday,
so we will see another round of scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms off and on during the day on Monday. Like Sunday,
our high temperatures on Monday will run well below average.

By Tuesday, drier air will begin to filter into the area as the
southwest flow aloft runs out of tropical moisture to advect into
the region. We will continue to see a chance for showers and
thunderstorms, but those chances will be mainly focused east of
the Rio Grande. By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level trough
to our west will finally begin to lift out and the westerly flow
behind the departing trough will usher in even drier air. The end
of the week, and into next weekend looks dry. Temperatures for
Tuesday through the end of the week look to return to seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Mostly showery activity with embedded thunder can be expected
again today. Much of this activity will focus along the
International Border, so KTCS will have lesser chances of rain,
perhaps just hit and miss showers. This activity will persist into
the late evening hours tomorrow. This is a tropical airmass so
ceilings could reach down into MVFR to IFR categories.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 427 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Low fire danger for the week ahead as min RH values stay above
critical thresholds. Showery activity today and tomorrow will keep
healthy min RHs both afternoons with values of 60-80% in the
lowlands and 80-90% in the area mountains. A drying trend begins
Tuesday but lingering thunderstorm chances expected. By Wednesday
and into the weekend dry conditions can be expected with light
afternoon breeziness each afternoon. 20 foot winds will be
generally 5-10 mph each afternoon. High temperatures will be 5-10
degrees below average today and tomorrow trending near normal by
the middle part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  79  65  84 /  60  50  60  20
Sierra Blanca            58  78  58  81 /  60  50  40  20
Las Cruces               59  73  59  79 /  60  70  50  20
Alamogordo               58  74  59  81 /  50  60  60  30
Cloudcroft               43  56  44  61 /  50  60  60  50
Truth or Consequences    58  72  57  78 /  60  70  50  30
Silver City              53  64  53  72 /  70  80  50  20
Deming                   60  74  59  81 /  70  70  40  20
Lordsburg                59  71  57  78 /  70  80  30  10
West El Paso Metro       63  76  65  81 /  60  50  50  20
Dell City                60  79  60  81 /  50  40  40  20
Fort Hancock             64  82  65  86 /  70  50  40  20
Loma Linda               56  71  57  76 /  60  50  60  20
Fabens                   62  79  63  84 /  70  40  50  20
Santa Teresa             61  74  62  80 /  60  50  50  20
White Sands HQ           61  74  62  81 /  60  60  60  30
Jornada Range            59  73  59  79 /  60  70  50  30
Hatch                    59  74  59  81 /  70  70  50  30
Columbus                 59  74  60  81 /  60  70  30  10
Orogrande                58  74  59  79 /  60  60  60  30
Mayhill                  49  67  50  71 /  50  60  60  50
Mescalero                47  67  49  73 /  50  60  70  50
Timberon                 46  64  48  68 /  60  60  60  40
Winston                  49  66  48  72 /  60  70  50  30
Hillsboro                54  71  55  77 /  70  70  50  30
Spaceport                57  72  57  79 /  60  70  50  40
Lake Roberts             51  66  50  73 /  70  80  50  30
Hurley                   55  67  54  74 /  70  80  40  20
Cliff                    58  71  56  79 /  70  80  50  10
Mule Creek               54  67  52  74 /  70  80  50  20
Faywood                  56  66  55  74 /  70  80  50  20
Animas                   59  72  57  79 /  70  70  20  10
Hachita                  58  71  56  77 /  70  70  30  10
Antelope Wells           58  72  56  79 /  80  60  20  10
Cloverdale               56  66  55  74 /  80  70  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Lowlands of the Bootheel-
     Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Uplands of the
     Bootheel.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher