Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
297 FXUS64 KEPZ 300437 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1037 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026 - Breezy and gusty conditions near the east slopes of the Franklin and Organ Mountains overnight. - Warm and dry weather over the weekend, with lowland highs warming into the mid to upper 90s. El Paso may approach 100 on Monday, but it`ll be close. - Increasing moisture next week will lead to more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be next Tuesday and Wednesday but rain chances could last through the rest of next week. Temperatures will cool considerably as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026 The back edge of some mid-level moisture is interacting with the right-rear quadrant of a 95 knot jet streak, with just enough moisture and lift to squeeze out a few sprinkles over far SE Hudspeth County this evening. This activity will shift to the east and dissipate as the jet streak moves east in the next few hours. Elsewhere, clearing skies will work in from west to east overnight. A low level jet of around 35-40 knots will keep breezy conditions in place until the pre-dawn hours east of the Organ and Franklin Mountains, with some gusts 35 to 40 mph possible, especially closer to the eastern mountain slopes. For Saturday, an upper level low will be moving into southern Wyoming, well to our north, but a trailing trough will tease northern New Mexico, just enough to give us a breezy afternoon, though winds will be much lighter than Friday, with gusts topping out around 25 to 30 mph. Temperatures will take a slight downtick into the upper-80s to lower-90s for the lowlands, a few degrees above normal. (For reference, the climatological normal high for ELP for May 30th is 94, and we`ll be closer to 91). Heading into next week, ridging will slowly build from the Gulf of Mexico northwest into central Texas, while weak, saggy troughing persists over California. This pattern will allow moisture to seep into the area, first in the low levels, then aloft. Precip chances will edge in the Sacramento Mountains and far eastern Hudspeth County Sunday afternoon and evening, with spotty showers and thunderstorms possible again Monday. Monday night will be key, as models suggest deeper convection over the Southern Plains will push moist outflow well to the west, possibly beyond the Continental Divide by Tuesday, with a significant uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Precip chances look to hold on beyond that, though some drier air may start edging into SW New Mexico later in the week. Temperature-wise, Monday will be the warmest day, and the best chance for ELP to see its first 100 reading, though it`s a toss-up (official forecast is currently 99). Temperatures look to drop thereafter as the moisture and precip chances move in. El Paso might have a hard time getting out of the 80s from midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026 Winds have eased up just a little at ELP in the past hour, and will continue to flirt with the lower end of AWW criteria through about 09 or 10Z. Expect wind speeds will be rather erratic, with LLWS present during the lighter periods. Skies will become SKC as high and mid clouds slide east of the area by dawn. Breezy conditions will return Saturday afternoon, but with gusts generally 20-25 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026 Near Critical fire weather conditions on Saturday as dry flow out of Arizona further pushes moisture out of the area. Min RH falling to 8 to 12% across Southern New Mexico, with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. No Red Flag planned for local forests due to winds below critical thresholds. Sunny skies with good afternoon mixing. Very Good ventilation rates with transport to the ENE. Sunday will also be extremely dry, though lighter winds will reduce the risk of large fire growth. Increasing moisture next week will reduce fire weather conditions as widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected to bring wetting rains across Lincoln and Gila National Forests. Best chances for rain will be during the afternoon hours Tuesday-Thursday, with storms capable of flash flooding and gusty outflow winds. New fire starts will be a concern initially next week, with plenty of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and ERCs still near the 90th percentiles dryness. Fuel moisture will increase as storm chances continue through mid-June, but the concern next week will be lightning starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 91 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 88 64 93 / 10 0 0 10 Las Cruces 58 87 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 88 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 66 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 88 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 79 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 90 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 85 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 89 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 61 90 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 66 95 61 100 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 83 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 92 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 88 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 67 89 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 57 88 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 91 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 62 91 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 87 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 79 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 48 76 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 44 74 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 81 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 86 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 88 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 81 36 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 47 82 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 43 86 47 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 36 81 40 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 49 82 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 87 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 58 87 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 88 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman