627
FXUS64 KEPZ 221153
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
553 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

 - Deep Monsoon moisture beginning to shift west and north, with
   slightly drier air working in from the east. Focus of storms
   will be more over the higher mountains and northern and western
   lowlands.

 - With high pressure building over, drier and warmer weather is
   expected for the rest of the week. Storms will be mostly
   limited to to western New Mexico and the high elevations.

 - Lowland temperatures will begin reaching triple digits Friday
   into next weekend, and through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

After an extended duration of deep monsoon moisture over the
Borderland, we are moving into a transition toward a drier regime
as high pressure noses in from the east, shoving the deeper
moisture W and N, and bringing in drier air from the NE and E. As
early as tomorrow, we should see a downward trend in the coverage
of showers and storms across the region, with a focus of further
storm activity over area high mountains and the N and W lowlands
across Southern New Mexico. PWAT has been near 1.5", and it is
proged to drop to near 1.0", and dewpoints in the 60s are supposed
to fall into the 40s. Both of those lower numbers are still
respectable enough to allow for a pop-up storm anywhere across
the CWFA, but the chances will drop for the southern and eastern
areas of the forecast area. It will further drop Thursday and
Friday as the upper high continues to expand west over the region,
with subsident warming aloft, adding a cap, suppressing
instability. Along with this "drying trend" will be an associated
warming trend, with lowland temperatures reaching toward the
triple digits as early as Thursday.

Late weekend the upper high, if the GFS is correct, jogs to the
north, which could allow a return of more moisture back into the
region. However, the high doesn`t move as far north as it did a
couple weeks ago, to start this wet period, so it looks like the
moisture reintroduction will be somewhat limited, and still
focused over SW and W NE, with areas to the east somewhat dry
still. The ECMWF model still shows a upper high controlling the
conditions over the region into next week, keeping the forecast
warmer and drier.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Calm and quiet morning ahead with clearing skies. Another round of
thunderstorms expected with the best focus being over the area
mountains with more isolated activity in the desert lowlands.
Storms will be efficient rain makers which could cause some
reductions in visibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 543 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Continued chances for monsoonal thunderstorms again today with a
focus over the area mountains. High pressure will focus itself
over the area by Friday, but this will entrain some drier air and
will warm temperatures. Min RHs will stay above critical
thresholds across the area today and tomorrow but critical min RHs
return to the desert lowlands Friday and through the weekend. High
pressure looks to meander over the desert southwest this weekend
and looks to make it over the southern Plains by early next week.
Storm chances will persist but storms will focus over the higher
terrain with more isolated storm chances in the desert lowlands.
Temperatures will increase the next few days. 20 foot winds will
stay generally light each afternoon through the week ahead with
speeds of 5-10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 100  77 102 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66  94  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               69  97  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               72  98  74 102 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  75  55  77 /  10  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    72  97  73 100 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              64  88  65  92 /  10   0   0  10
Deming                   69  98  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                69  95  71  98 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       76  99  77 101 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                71  99  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             74 100  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               68  91  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   73  99  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             72  97  73 100 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           76  98  78 101 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            72  97  73 100 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    71 100  73 104 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 73  98  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                70  97  71 101 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  57  86  59  89 /  10  10   0  10
Mescalero                56  86  59  88 /  20  10   0  10
Timberon                 56  83  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  60  87  61  91 /  10  10   0  20
Hillsboro                67  94  69  97 /  10   0   0  10
Spaceport                69  97  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             59  90  60  93 /  10   0   0  20
Hurley                   64  92  65  95 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    65  95  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               63  91  66  94 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  66  91  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   68  94  70  97 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                  67  94  68  97 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           68  94  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale               65  89  66  92 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for East
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher