341
FXUS64 KEPZ 180557
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1157 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - A drier air mass will allow for more efficient cooling Saturday
   night, with several lowland locations dropping into the 40s by
   Sunday morning, outside of urban areas.

 - Afternoon temperatures will rebound back into the 80s Sunday,
   and trend slowly higher through mid-week.

 - There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
   night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A weak upper level trough which gave us slightly breezy conditions
this afternoon is moving through New Mexico currently. It is
coming through with a little more fanfare than previously
expected as some scattered showers and sprinkles have managed to
crop up over the Sacramento Mountains. Rainfall amounts will be
light, probably a trace to a hundredth or two, before dissipating
a few hours from now.

Otherwise, the forecast is on track, with much quieter weather
expected over the next several days. Light WNW winds behind the
trough Saturday will drop dewpoints into the 20s and 30s, and with
light/variable winds and clear skies, we`ll get a bit chilly
Saturday night. Expect 40s across much of the lowlands outside of
urban areas, with lower to middle-30s in some of the colder
valleys in the Gila Region. The old MAV guidance is going for 40
Sunday morning at DMN, and that might not be too far off. Expect
mid to upper-40s across the Mesilla Valley as well, and the
Jornada Range might teeter on the edge of 39.

Temperatures will recover to the upper-70s to lower-80s on Sunday,
with highs overall trending upwards through mid-week, with ELP
reaching the mid/upper-80s on Wednesday, about 5-10 degrees above
normal across the region.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and models are trending slightly moister with this
system. Still kept PoPs in the 20 percent range, but spread them
into parts of South-Central New Mexico on Wednesday, and parts of
Far West Texas Wednesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

FEW to SCT mid clouds will clear out before dawn. Light and
variable winds overnight will trend towards W to WNW 5-10 knots on
Saturday, with VFR conditions continuing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1003 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Some breezy winds expected for this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph
from WSW. Min RHs remain well above critical levels, so elevated
fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Near zero rain
chances today with the best chance in SE Hudspeth county this
evening. Overnight recoveries will be good tonight. High pressure
aloft builds into the region from the south this weekend, allowing
for dry conditions and light winds. A storm system moves in on
Tuesday, bringing some breezy winds and slight rain chances for
northern areas into Wed. Temperatures warm to a few degrees above
normal through Mon.

Min RHs will be 25-40% today; then 12-20%, except for 15-25% in
the Sacs. Vent rates will be good to very good today, then poor to
good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  80  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            54  75  45  79 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               49  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               49  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               37  56  36  60 /  30   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    47  75  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              42  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   48  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                46  74  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       57  77  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                53  79  45  80 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  81  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               51  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   57  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  76  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           53  77  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            48  75  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    47  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 53  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                49  74  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  42  69  40  71 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero                40  66  40  70 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                 40  66  40  66 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                  37  71  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                45  76  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                45  75  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             36  74  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   41  74  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    42  77  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               39  74  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  45  73  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  74  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  47  74  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman