Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
226 FXUS64 KEPZ 191111 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 511 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 - Drier weather this weekend and into Monday, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms along the eastern fringes of the forecast area. - A rapid return of moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through the rest of next week. Heavy rain will pose a risk of flash flooding area wide. - Typical mid-September temperatures over the weekend, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Cooler temperatures expected next week with forecasted rain and lingering cloud coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026 The models had done such a good job the last few days bringing day after day of moderate to heavy rain to the region. Today`s short range models had the thunderstorms moving into El Paso, Hudspeth and Otero Counties this evening, but it looks like some drier and more stable air has pushed further east which is keeping most of the thunderstorm activity confined to Hudspeth County. That drying trend will continue on Saturday and Sunday, as the trough aloft that had helped pull moisture into the region, pushes through the inter mountain west into the upper midwest. On the back side of the system drier air will move into the area, greatly reducing or even eliminating our rain chances on Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable water values (PW`s) today were in the range of 1.1 to 1.3, but by Sunday we will see PW values in the range of 0.5 to 0.8. Anytime you are below an inch on PW`s it is much harder to get thunderstorms going. For Monday we will begin to see a pattern change back to wetter weather. An upper level ridge will begin to strengthen across eastern Texas while at the same time an upper level trough will approach the area through southern California. The circulation around these systems will begin to draw up moisture. Initially on Monday the moisture will not be very deep, so Monday is looking pretty dry. But by Tuesday the PW values will jump up to 1.3 to 1.5 which is well above average for this time of year. Those higher PW values continue through the end of next week. Short wave troughs embedded in the southerly flow will help kick off daily thunderstorms and with the higher PW values, the thunderstorms next week will be very efficient rain produces. The ECMWF even brings the remnants of a tropical system into western New Mexico on next Thursday but the latest run of the GFS doesn`t have any such system. Whether there is a remnant tropical system or simply a deep fetch of tropical moisture, next week looks to have a good potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. Plan on checking the latest forecast during this weekend if you have outdoor plans next week. Looking at temperatures, with the drier air moving into the region we will see less clouds and more sun. This will help keep our afternoon high temperatures a few degrees above average, but the drier air will allow for cooler and pleasant morning low temperatures. Then as the moisture, clouds and rain chances return to the region we will see high temperatures dip to 4 to 7 degrees below average for the middle and end of next week. Who`s ready for some below average high temperatures? && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 VMC expected to prevail through forecast period. Surface winds 200-250 at 05 to 10 knots this afternoon, with skies generally FEW-SCT100, SCT-BKN250. Much drier today compared to past few days with only isolated TS during the evening hours, mostly S and SE of KELP. No direct TS impacts expected for TAF sites tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Low fire danger due to heavy rain this week. This weekend will be drier with only isolated (10-20%) showers over mountains. Light SW winds each afternoon, 5 to 10 mph leading to Good ventilation. A rapid return of moisture is expected next week, leading to another round of widespread wetting rains. Localized flash flooding is the main threat, especially over burn scars, mountain canyons, and other flood-sensitive locations. This above normal precipitation will cause ERCs to plummet, keeping fire danger very low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 93 68 94 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 90 63 91 / 40 10 0 0 Las Cruces 61 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 64 91 64 92 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 68 48 68 / 10 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 61 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 61 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 67 93 67 94 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 64 94 64 94 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 68 97 70 98 / 30 0 0 0 Loma Linda 63 86 64 87 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 66 94 67 95 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 64 92 63 93 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 69 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 62 91 63 92 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 62 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 65 94 65 95 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 90 62 91 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 54 83 54 82 / 10 10 0 10 Mescalero 53 80 52 80 / 10 0 0 10 Timberon 52 79 52 79 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 52 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 63 88 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 59 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 53 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 58 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 59 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 64 91 64 91 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 61 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt