Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
642 FXUS64 KEPZ 152319 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 419 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Pacific low brings breezy southwest winds area wide and slight rain chances across western New Mexico on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures next week behind a Pacific cold front, with precipitation chances increasing midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 We be transitioning from a minor ridge today, to a trough passage over the next 48 hrs. Today, that means another mild and dry day, with fairly light wind speeds. Sunday, the upper ridge will shift over the TX/OK Panhandles, as we begin to sense the impacts of our next Pacific trough, moving in from the west. We will see an afternoon of breezy to marginally windy conditions, with potential for blowing dust across the Lordsburg Playa. Winds should make for a hazy day, areawide, but likely not widespread significant dust impacts. The dynamics and moisture associated with the storm system will be generally held west over AZ through the day, but we could see some isolated and light precipitation spill east into the Gila/SW NM region. Otherwise, a dry, breezy, and mild day expected for most of the Borderland Sunday. They trough lifts NE into the Rockies, to our north, Monday, with an overnight Pac frontal passage Sunday, but no real chances for any precipitation as the storm pulls the dynamics and moisture north with it`s exit. We will be cooler Monday, and continue with marginally breezy west winds. Quick on the heels of the first storm`s exit, a second Pac system arrives over our western areas on Tuesday. As the low slows and spins over AZ, it pulls up moisture from the S and spreads it over the rest of the CWA Wednesday and Thursday. We will see cloudy and cooler conditions, with precipitation chances areawide. Snow levels will be starting near 8000ft dropping to 6500ft. Thus no lowland snow chances, just mostly high mountains. Precipitation/ snow amounts look relatively light. QPF of T to 0.33" and snow of T to 4" above 7500 ft. This second system exits, again lifting to the NE, late Thursday/ early Friday. For the rest of the forecast cycle, we will see a drier SW flow, with a flat upper pattern across the region. Conditions will be cool and dry, with lighter winds for end of next week, and next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Skies SKC-FEW250 overnight with surface winds generally 220-260 at 4 to 8 knots. Winds increasing Sunday afternoon as a low pressure system approaches from the northwest. Winds 230-260 at 15G25KT will be most common, with gusts up to 35 knots across S NM. Patchy blowing dust possible, but not included in TAFs at this time due to low confidence. Skies becoming FEW-SCT100 Sunday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1015 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 Dry and mild ridge over the region today, with relatively light SW and W winds, and low RH. Tomorrow, the next Pacific trough begins to move in from the west. For the region, it will mean increased winds for tomorrow afternoon. But we will avoid critical fire weather conditions because it will be marginally cooler, and the RH will be higher. Most of the region will remain dry, but there could be a few light and isolated showers spill east across the AZ line into the Gila region. This first system will lift NE out of the region Monday, pulling moisture out with it. Thus, we don`t expect any expansion of any pcpn across the region, but it will be slightly cooler, with rising RH behind a Pacific cool front that pushes through late in the day on Sunday. The next Pacific storm system begins to move in Tuesday, and like tomorrow`s, we expect precipitation to be limited to western areas on Tuesday, before the system slowly passed Wednesday and Thursday, with rain and mountain snow chances across the entire region those days. Rain and snow amounts will be relatively low, with liquid amounts of T to 0.33", and snow amounts above 7000ft in the T to 4" range. For the rest of the week, the temperatures will be cool, and RH will be elevated. Winds will be marginally breezy in the afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 53 79 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 74 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 47 74 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 45 74 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 53 33 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 48 73 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 65 39 59 / 0 10 10 0 Deming 46 76 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 71 42 65 / 0 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 76 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 43 79 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 81 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 49 70 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 49 79 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 75 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 76 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 74 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 44 77 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 50 78 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 43 74 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 66 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 40 65 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 39 62 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 64 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 46 71 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 74 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 63 35 59 / 0 10 10 0 Hurley 43 68 38 62 / 0 10 0 0 Cliff 42 71 38 65 / 0 20 10 0 Mule Creek 42 65 36 60 / 0 30 10 0 Faywood 46 68 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 73 44 68 / 0 10 0 0 Hachita 46 74 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 46 74 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 66 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt