Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
043 FXUS64 KEPZ 070446 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1046 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1037 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026 - Storm chances persist each afternoon favoring area mountains with lesser activity in the desert lowlands. Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and localized flooding. - Temperatures will remain above normal with lowland highs in the mid to upper 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1037 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Upper high will shift slightly eastward Monday over the southern Plains before shifting and broadening across the southern US Tuesday and even into Wednesday. PWs stay above average with values generally 1.2" to 1.3". Storm chances continue each of those days with a focus over the area mountains then isolated to scattered storms in the desert lowlands. Gusty outflow winds and moderate to heavy downpours will be the primary hazards. By Thursday and Friday, the upper high rebuilds over the southwestern US. Still can expect the normal monsoonal thunderstorms for Thursday but by Friday and Saturday, PW values drop to 0.9"- 1.0". Can expect a downtrend in activity due to this. Both the EC and GFS are showing a passing upper trough Sunday and Monday which could bring some cooler weather if this does occur. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Large cluster of showers ongoing mostly west of the Rio Grande spanning as far west as the NM/AZ state line. KDMN, KLRU, and KTCS may continue to see these showers for two/three more hours before fizzling away. KDMN looks to hold on to shower chances longer than the other terminals. Light winds generally AOB 10KT through the TAF period. Another round of thunderstorms expected tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Fire weather concerns will be low through the week. Storm chances will be limited through midweek as an upper ridge sits nearby. Mostly dry conditions are forecast E of the Divide today, with the exception of scattered activity over the Lincoln. Better coverage is expected out west today with a marginal risk of heavy rainfall. Overnight RH recoveries will be very good to excellent tonight. Light SE flow today outside of outflows gusting up to 30 mph, continuing into midweek. Slightly lower rain chances area-wide for Mon, again favoring N and W. Temperatures will be seasonably warm this week as moisture levels remain near or above normal. Min RHs range from 20-30% in the lowlands through midweek, 30-50% in the mtns. Vent rates will be poor to good through midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 20 Sierra Blanca 65 93 67 92 / 0 10 10 20 Las Cruces 69 95 69 96 / 10 10 10 20 Alamogordo 68 95 68 95 / 10 10 10 30 Cloudcroft 49 71 50 71 / 10 20 10 40 Truth or Consequences 71 94 70 94 / 40 20 30 20 Silver City 64 87 63 88 / 60 40 50 30 Deming 69 96 69 96 / 30 20 20 20 Lordsburg 70 94 69 95 / 40 20 30 20 West El Paso Metro 75 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 20 Dell City 69 97 70 97 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 72 101 74 100 / 0 10 10 20 Loma Linda 67 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 20 Fabens 72 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 71 96 72 95 / 10 10 10 20 White Sands HQ 73 96 74 96 / 10 10 10 20 Jornada Range 69 95 70 95 / 10 10 10 20 Hatch 70 98 70 98 / 20 10 10 20 Columbus 71 97 72 97 / 30 10 10 20 Orogrande 68 95 69 95 / 10 0 10 20 Mayhill 55 84 55 84 / 10 10 10 30 Mescalero 54 84 54 83 / 10 20 10 40 Timberon 53 82 54 81 / 10 10 10 40 Winston 59 85 59 85 / 50 50 50 30 Hillsboro 68 92 68 92 / 50 30 40 30 Spaceport 68 95 68 95 / 20 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 58 86 57 86 / 70 50 50 50 Hurley 64 90 64 91 / 60 30 40 20 Cliff 67 95 66 95 / 40 40 40 40 Mule Creek 65 92 64 91 / 20 30 40 40 Faywood 66 89 66 89 / 50 30 30 20 Animas 69 95 69 95 / 40 30 40 30 Hachita 68 94 68 94 / 50 20 20 30 Antelope Wells 67 94 67 94 / 40 30 30 40 Cloverdale 64 89 63 88 / 40 40 40 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher