Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
082 FXUS64 KEPZ 171044 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 444 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 444 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, area wide for Thursday and Friday, but mainly west this weekend into next week. -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow winds, and areas of blowing dust. - High temperatures near to just below normal west of the Rio Grande Valley, while remaining above normal to the east. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1052 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A large, subtropical ridge covers much of the Southeastern US with a cut off low off the Baja Coast. This places our area in southerly flow though better moisture is west of the Rio Grande. Models show a slug of moisture lifting north out of Chihuahua that will align the plume over NM and Far West Texas, allowing storm chances to spread area-wide with scattered coverage through Friday. The high will expand westward, which will shift the plume toward the AZ-NM border, decreasing but not eliminating storm chances. This pattern remains fairly static through mid-week, but both the GFS and Euro show an easterly wave lifting out of Chihuahua into NM on Wednesday, which would increase shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will hang out near normal through the period as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 VFR conditions through 18Z with SCT-BKN250. Developing over the mountains after 18Z...scattered BKN-OVC060CB 3-5SM -TSRA. These thunderstorms will begin developing over the lowlands after 20Z but likely more isolated. Pea-size hail and wind gusts of 30-40 knots possible with these storms. Storms should dissipated by around 06z. All TAF sites could see a thunderstorm, but hit or miss pattern of them today does not lend enough confidence in including in the TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 444 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Seasonal levels of monsoon moisture remain in place across the fire zones through the weekend and into next week, for continued afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Favored areas for today most likely east of the Rio Grande, while Friday could favor areas west of the Rio Grande Valley. The rest of the period will see some chances over most of the area. The threat of burn scar flooding will be moderate today and Friday, then likely just a light risk after. Temperatures will remain just below normal west of the Rio Grande Valley most of this period, while at or just above normal to the east. Min RH: Lowlands 20-30% through Tuesday. Gila/Black Range mountains 25-35% through Tuesday; Sacramento Mtns 35-50% through Tuesday. Vent rates fair-good through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 77 98 75 / 20 30 40 40 Sierra Blanca 90 69 91 67 / 60 40 40 20 Las Cruces 94 71 94 69 / 20 40 40 50 Alamogordo 95 71 94 70 / 40 30 50 20 Cloudcroft 71 52 70 52 / 70 30 80 20 Truth or Consequences 94 70 93 70 / 50 40 50 50 Silver City 86 63 87 63 / 60 30 70 60 Deming 96 71 97 70 / 20 40 50 70 Lordsburg 92 69 94 68 / 40 30 60 70 West El Paso Metro 95 75 95 76 / 20 30 40 40 Dell City 95 72 96 72 / 40 20 30 10 Fort Hancock 98 76 98 75 / 60 50 50 30 Loma Linda 88 69 88 69 / 30 30 40 30 Fabens 96 74 97 74 / 20 40 30 30 Santa Teresa 94 74 94 73 / 20 40 40 50 White Sands HQ 95 75 94 74 / 30 40 50 50 Jornada Range 94 71 94 71 / 40 40 60 50 Hatch 97 71 97 71 / 40 40 50 60 Columbus 95 74 97 72 / 20 40 40 70 Orogrande 93 71 91 70 / 30 30 50 30 Mayhill 81 58 80 56 / 70 30 70 20 Mescalero 82 57 81 57 / 70 30 80 20 Timberon 80 56 79 56 / 60 30 70 20 Winston 85 58 85 58 / 60 40 70 50 Hillsboro 93 65 91 65 / 50 50 60 60 Spaceport 94 68 94 68 / 40 40 50 50 Lake Roberts 87 58 87 59 / 70 40 80 70 Hurley 89 64 90 64 / 50 30 70 60 Cliff 93 66 94 67 / 60 30 60 60 Mule Creek 88 63 91 65 / 50 30 60 50 Faywood 89 66 89 65 / 50 40 70 60 Animas 92 69 93 70 / 40 40 70 70 Hachita 92 68 93 67 / 30 40 60 80 Antelope Wells 90 68 92 68 / 40 40 80 80 Cloverdale 85 66 87 65 / 40 40 80 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner