Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
905 FXUS64 KEPZ 232025 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today and Monday. Dry elsewhere. - Chances for thunderstorms will improve Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another multi-day break in the monsoon is underway. 18Z RAOBS place the subtropical high right in between ABQ and EPZ, with both recording 500mb heights of 5980m. Additional horrid stats from EPZ include a temperature of -4C at 500mb (in the middle of a sharp inversion, and a PWAT of 0.84 inches. Meanwhile, at the surface, dewpoints have mixed out into the mid-30s across much of the lowlands, including LRU, ALM, and DNA. HRRR still holds out hope for a few isolated convective showers with maybe some thunder over the Gila or Sacramento Mountains, and radar shows a few minimal blips west of the Black Range. But coverage will be very minimal. Temperatures should still top out around 101-103 at ELP, with similar temperatures tomorrow. Ensembles suggest we`ll peak on Tuesday with a high around 104-106. Record highs for ELP the next few days rise slowly with the forecast, but are still within range. Sun 23 - 103 (2024) // fcst 102 Mon 24 - 102 (1993) // fcst 102 Tue 25 - 104 (2002) // fcst 104 Wed 26 - 106 (2019) // fcst 103 Thu 27 - 103 (2019) // fcst 102 The subtropical ridge will drift east over the next couple of days before slowly retracing its steps, then settling closer to the AZ/NM border by Wednesday. This will allow for northerly flow aloft to develop, bringing weak disturbances and some recycled upper level moisture into the area, increasing the risk of thunderstorms again. Low level moisture will struggle to recover until Thursday, so lowland precip chances will lag the higher terrain. Temperatures will hover near or just above 100 through the rest of the month. Our record for number of days in August with highs 100+ at El Paso currently sits at 20 (set in 2020). We have a shot at beating this record. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions with light winds, favoring SE to S in the afternoon, and drainage flows at night. Thunderstorm chances almost nil through the next 24 to 48 hours at all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend, with very low chances for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the Gila and Sacramentos for the remainder of the afternoon and Monday afternoon. Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible. Minimum RH values will drop just below 10 percent in the lowlands the next few afternoons, while the forested high elevations hold onto 15 to 25%. Winds will remain light. An uptick in thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain, is expected Wednesday, and another tick higher Thursday, as the upper ridge drifts west of the area again, opening us up to weak disturbances aloft dropping in from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 102 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 101 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 60 78 64 79 / 10 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 72 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 94 65 96 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 70 102 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 103 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 64 102 68 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 71 106 73 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 103 74 107 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 101 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 68 104 71 106 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 70 102 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 57 89 59 90 / 10 10 0 20 Timberon 55 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 61 91 65 93 / 0 20 0 0 Hillsboro 70 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 92 55 93 / 10 20 10 10 Hurley 65 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 64 101 67 103 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 58 97 60 99 / 10 10 0 0 Faywood 68 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 68 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman