Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
514 FXUS64 KEPZ 161127 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 527 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 450 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - An uptick in thunderstorm coverage, including in the lowlands, is expected again Sunday, before shifting into far SW New Mexico and the Sacramento Mountains on Monday. - Localized flash flooding will be the main hazard from storms, typical for mid-end Monsoon days. Blowing dust and strong outflow winds may occur from storms over the lowland deserts. - Another dry and warmer spell is on the way for next week as the ridge drifts west. Rain chances may improve toward the end of next wee as weak disturbances dropping in from the northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Thunderstorms today mostly stayed focused east of the Rio Grande, under an upper tropospheric deformation zone associated with an tight upper tropospheric low over northern Coahuila. This fit quite well with the Pytlak (2005) conceptual model of upper tropospheric lows and troughs in relation to modulating monsoon season precipitation. Higher PoPs in put in the forecast 24 hours ago, largely leaning into pattern recognition and supported by CAMS, were the right call versus NBM output which produced PoPs at ELP below climatological PoP values for the date. With the upper low`s westward progress stalled, as mentioned last night, Sunday continues to look like an active day with thunderstorm coverage a little more evenly spread out across the area. The upper level deformation zone will be laid SW to NE across the CWA from the Bootheel into the Texas Panhandle. An added wrinkle will be increased upper divergence in SW New Mexico from a weak disturbance lifting across Arizona, as SW flow edges into the western arm of the subtropical ridge. This will act in tandem with the upper tropospheric low. Models show the closed mid-level low will decouple from the upper circulation, drifting into the Big Bend region Sunday afternoon, and leaving upper circulation behind in Coahuila. A notable pocked of cooler mid- level air (-8C at 500 mb) will accompany the low as it drifts towards us, but it looks to mostly stay out of area. The decoupled low also has a weak reflection down to around 700 mb, and the GFS has a plume of higher dewpoints across southern NM by afternoon. So, in short, another active day tomorrow with showers and thunderstorms over a wider area, likely most of the CWA. CAMS suggest max rainfall amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range. There`s little consensus on who will get hit the hardest in the lowlands, but some consensus favoring heavier rain chances in the Gila as well as the Sacramento Mountains (especially the west slopes). Will hold off on any Watches, and let subsequent shifts chew on updated guidance. By Monday, the upper tropospheric trough will mostly be sheared out, but a remaining weakness leftover from the decoupled mid- level low will remain over southern New Mexico. This is also possibly signs of an MCV over the area, and this is also hinted at in GFS CAPE values, with a relative minimum in instability over south- central New Mexico. If things are active tomorrow, someone is likely to get "shut off" for Monday, and south-central NM (eastern Luna into Dona Ana County) is a fair bet. Best chances for thunderstorms will be in the Gila and far SW New Mexico into the Bootheel, with a secondary focus over the Sacramento Mountains. PWAT values in the lowlands will still be hovering around 1.2 to 1.3 inches, so the localized heavy rain threat will continue. Warmer and drier conditions look to take over from Tuesday, with still hope for a relief as the ridge breaks down on its eastern edge later in the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 We will see another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms today. The best chances for thunderstorms will be in the Rio Grande Valle. The main threat from the thunderstorms will be brief heavy rain and strong outflow winds. Away from the thunderstorms we will have occasionally gusty southeast winds. Those gusty winds will be on the low end of things. We will have mostly unlimited ceiling this morning, then the high and mid ceilings will be on the increase into the afternoon. All the TAF sites this afternoon will have at least a 30% chance for thunderstorms. We may see some brief MVFR ceilings or visibilities in and near the thunderstorms. The thunderstorm activity will wind down by late evening, with light winds and high ceilings of BKN250 continuing into the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 450 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Fire weather concerns continue to be minimal this week. ERC values are running on the low side of things, but by midweek, ERC values will begin tracking higher. The min RH`s today and Monday will be at or above 20% across the whole region. Then for Tuesday through the end of the coming week, we will see drier air move in and min RH`s will range from the mid teens in the lowlands to the 20`s in area mountains. We will have a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms today and again on Monday, with the best chances for rain today in the Rio Grande Valley and on Monday the best chances for rain will be in the Gila Region. The thunderstorms both today and Monday will be capable of producing some strong and gusty outflow winds. Away from the thunderstorms the winds will be well below critical levels. Ventilation rates today and Monday will range from good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 96 73 99 / 30 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 92 66 95 / 20 10 0 0 Las Cruces 68 94 67 96 / 40 10 0 0 Alamogordo 68 93 69 96 / 30 20 0 10 Cloudcroft 50 70 51 73 / 20 50 10 30 Truth or Consequences 70 92 69 95 / 50 20 10 0 Silver City 64 87 63 88 / 50 60 20 20 Deming 70 95 69 97 / 50 20 10 0 Lordsburg 71 95 70 96 / 40 30 20 0 West El Paso Metro 74 96 74 98 / 30 10 0 0 Dell City 70 96 70 98 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 99 74 102 / 20 10 0 0 Loma Linda 67 89 68 91 / 20 20 0 0 Fabens 72 97 72 99 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 94 71 97 / 30 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 72 94 73 97 / 30 10 10 0 Jornada Range 69 94 69 96 / 40 10 0 0 Hatch 70 97 69 99 / 40 10 0 0 Columbus 73 95 73 98 / 40 10 10 0 Orogrande 67 93 68 95 / 20 10 0 0 Mayhill 56 82 56 86 / 20 20 10 20 Mescalero 55 81 54 84 / 20 50 10 30 Timberon 53 80 54 83 / 20 20 0 10 Winston 59 84 58 87 / 60 40 20 20 Hillsboro 66 91 66 94 / 60 30 20 10 Spaceport 67 93 67 96 / 40 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 57 86 56 87 / 50 70 20 40 Hurley 65 89 63 91 / 60 40 20 10 Cliff 67 94 65 96 / 20 70 20 10 Mule Creek 64 91 63 92 / 20 80 30 20 Faywood 66 88 65 91 / 50 30 20 10 Animas 71 95 69 96 / 40 30 20 0 Hachita 70 94 69 96 / 50 30 20 0 Antelope Wells 69 93 68 95 / 30 30 20 0 Cloverdale 66 90 65 91 / 30 30 20 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice