Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
656 FXUS64 KEPZ 141831 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1131 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1032 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Dry conditions and near record warmth through Saturday. - Pacific low bringing breezy southwest winds areawide and slight rain chances across western New Mexico on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures next week behind a Pacific cold front, with precipitation chances increasing for midweek. - Looking dry and seasonal for late week and next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1032 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 High pressure aloft, across the SW starts the forecast cycle, with fair, benign, and mild conditions across the forecast area. Plenty of dry air will mean plenty of clear skies and no precip chances through the weekend, for most areas (Gila may be the exception). Winds light tonight and Saturday, before increasing to breezy for Sunday. Temperatures will continue warmer than average today through Sunday, with slight cooling each day. Nights will be cool, with the dry air, clear skies, and light winds allowing for strong radiational nighttime cooling, and strong isolation each day. Sunday, the next Pac low pressure storm system lifts across SCAL, and into AZ. The trajectory is such that most of the dynamics and associated moisture will lift NE into the Great Basin/Central Rockies, and barely clip our region. As such, really, only the mountains across the Gila region show any mentionable chances at any precipitation for Sunday afternoon and evening. Snow levels will be at or above 8500-9000ft MSL, with snow amounts light and spotty. Thus impacts very minimal. Of note on Sunday afternoon, for the broader area, will be a response to the approaching trough, in the form of breezy to marginally windy afternoon conditions. We will be watching the Lordsburg Playa for dust Sunday afternoon. Generally, winds look to be SW sustained 15 to 20 mph with gusts 30+ mph. That is enough to raise dust. A Pacific front pushes east across the area to cool the region further on Sunday. Temperatures should drop closer to normal, but still remain a few degrees above. Monday, we will be between Pacific systems, with a coolish fair-weather day, with west winds slackening. Tuesday the next Pacific storm system looks to track across SCAL and into Central AZ. We will begin to see increasing clouds, and even potential for later day precip over our western zones. Previous model runs were in big disagreement on timing/phase/ location, of subsequent storms, but the current 12z runs are in much better unison, allowing for better confidence in the forecast Tuesday onward of next week. Next Wednesday, the next system should be passing across our region, with cloudy and cool conditions and mentionable chances for lowland rain and mountain snow showers. The models exit this progressive storm Thursday, with preicp ending west to east early to mid day. Current models suggest fair weather FRI-SUN, as a transitory short wave ridge rides across the region, with yet another Pacific low slowly tracking in for early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 VFR conditions at all terminals, through the entire forecast period. Skies SKC-FEW250. Winds light and variable 0-7kts, favoring SE daylight hours, W-NW overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1032 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 High pressure over the region keeps conditions conducive for fall burning with above normal temperatures, low RH, and light winds, despite low ventilation across the region. The upper ridge will be slowly shifting east through the weekend as the next Pacific low pressure storm system approaches. Today will be the warmest day for quite a while. Temperatures will continue warm Saturday, but begin dipping a bit day to day, through the weekend. RH will be low again Saturday, and then start to climb as the next trough arrives with a Pacific cool front Sunday. Winds will be light again tonight and Saturday, before becoming breezy to marginally windy on Sunday as the trough begins to move over and influence our weather. Most of the region will remain dry with this first low pressure storm system, but the Gila high country could see some light and spotty rain, and high mountain snow showers Sunday. Cooler and dry Monday, with the system exiting, and winds beginning to slacken. RH will be somewhat elevated with the cooler conditions. Wind will be westerly. Tue and Wed of next week, the next Pacific storm system approaches and passes. cooler conditions, with more clouds and moisture. Precipitation chances far west on TUE, and all areas on WED. Mostly rain, with snow above 9000ft. Neither amounts look like a lot. The storm system exits Thursday, with precip ending west to east in the midday period. Friday through Sunday looks fair, with a shortwave ridge back over the region. Dry conditions, seasonal temperatures, more sun, lighter winds, RH staying up in the 30% range for MINs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 54 81 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 49 79 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 46 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 79 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 61 38 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 76 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 71 45 63 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 45 80 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 45 75 47 71 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 55 79 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 83 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 52 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 52 74 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 50 81 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 48 79 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 80 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 44 79 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 81 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 49 81 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 47 77 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 44 73 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 71 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 68 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 71 38 63 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 48 77 47 70 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 42 78 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 71 40 62 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 44 73 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 42 76 44 69 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 41 71 44 64 / 0 0 0 40 Faywood 48 73 46 67 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 46 77 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 44 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 69 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird